At an event the other night, the Governor opened the floor to questions and someone asked him about repealing the sales tax on energy used in manufacturing. The Gov. said that the “cost” of the tax cut was roughly $170 million, but that he thought they could identify enough savings to make it feasible.

“I read that we’ve lost $1 billion worth of jobs,” asked the gentleman who offered the original question. “Don’t we make enough in taxes on those jobs to pay for the tax cut.” That sounds like a no brainer but it’s a bit more complicated than that.

“Dynamic scoring” is a budgetary concept over which Congress has been fighting for years. Dynamic scoring includes changes in behavior that are expected from proposed tax cuts. For example, if we exempt the sales tax on Porsche automobiles, we expect more to be sold, and we might anticipate additional income tax from new salesroom jobs.

So in the example of the sales tax on energy used in manufacturing, a dynamic scoring model would include additional income tax revenues from jobs attracted to Georgia, or less income tax lost to jobs moving to other states.

But Georgia uses a static model for budgeting that doesn’t account for anticipated changes that ramify from tax cuts. So we must find a way to “pay for” tax cuts in a down economy like we currently experience.

I recognize that we may have gotten into the weeds on a technical budgeting issue, but I hope there are enough policy wonks among our readership that this little segment was worth producing.

Burke County, Georgia is home to the AAA State Champion Burke County High School Bears, who overcame not only opponents on the field, but crushing poverty and physical hunger. Coach Eric Parker attributes much of the team’s success to the federally-funded Healthy Hunger-Free Kids program, which helps feeds 500 students at the cost of $3 per meal.

Burke County’s trailed by two touchdowns at the half, but took over in the third quarter.

Burke took control of the game midway through the third period, moving 79 yards in eight plays and scoring the equalizer on Green’s 35-yard run and Mayton’s two-point run.

The Bears pulled ahead on Mayton’s 1-yard run with 21 seconds left in the third period, and Green’s 13-yarder put the game away at the 2:48 mark in the fourth.

Before Burke County instituted the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids program, such a victory would have been unthinkable for a team whose players were weakened by chronic malnutrition.

Seventeen-year-old defensive lineman Jessie Bush remembers how different things were just four years ago. “A lot of people – they was hungry, tired, and sleepy sometimes.”

Those were signs that his coach Eric Parker recognized as the dangerous symptoms of dehydration and malnutrition.

“We had kids who literally by Tuesday had to be removed from practice because of the intensity and the amount of energy they were having to expend,” Parker said.

The idea that some students might be going to school or practice hungry probably wouldn’t surprise anyone who knows Burke County, Georgia – one of the poorest counties in the country – where 48 percent of kids live below the poverty line.

Coach Parker knew the school needed to do something. So he met with Donna Martin – the school nutritionist. Martin said Parker told her, “Our kids need more calories – they’re falling out by the end of the fourth quarter and we need more calories – what can we do? Wouldn’t it be great if we could feed them supper?”

“I’m not going to cut the nutrition program and what it did for us short at all,” Parker said. “I thought it was a big part of our success.” He added there’s “no doubt” the nutrition program played a part in the big win. It gave them a sweet victory on and off the field.

Good people can disagree over the role of the federal government in feeding the poor, but I believe we each have a personal duty to help our neighbor.

“Then the king will say to those at his right hand, ‘Come, you that are blessed by my Father, inherit the kingdom prepared for you from the foundation of the world; for I was hungry and you gave me food, I was thirsty and you gave me something to drink, I was a stranger and you welcomed me, I was naked and you gave me clothing, I was sick and you took care of me, I was in prison and you visited me.’ Then the righteous will answer him, ‘Lord, when was it that we saw you hungry and gave you food, or thirsty and gave you something to drink? And when was it that we saw you a stranger and welcomed you, or naked and gave you clothing? And when was it that we saw you sick or in prison and visited you?’ And the king will answer them, ‘Truly I tell you, just as you did it to one of the least of these who are members of my family, you did it to me.’” Matthew 25:34-40

Whether you agree or disagree that this is a role to be performed by government, this is a time of year to consider how you can help feed someone else.

“And they’re OFF!”, the well-known cry of horse racetrack announcers, may not be coming to Georgia. In fact it’s more likely to be, “And IT’S off.”

Today Governor Deal stated that he is against an expansion of gambling in Georgia. Without pari-mutuel betting to raise the prize money for the races, there would likely not be a purse large enough to attract top-flight entrants to Georgia-based racing.

Despite a meeting today with members of the horse racing industry and some state lawmakers, Governor Deal is unlikely to endorse the necessary changes anytime soon. The Atlanta Journal-Constitution has the story:

Industry officials received a cool reception Thursday from Gov. Nathan Deal despite a continued push by backers to legalize gambling on horse racing in Georgia.

With lawmakers set to reconvene in January, former Breeders’ Cup board Chairman Bill Farish and Nick Nicholson, president and CEO of Kentucky’s Keeneland Association, made the visit to pitch the industry’s likely effects on Georgia’s job growth and economy. They met first with a handful of lawmakers before meeting privately with the governor.

Deal, however, told them “he wouldn’t support any effort to expand gambling in Georgia,” Deal spokesman Brian Robinson said.

His opposition is not likely to squelch the idea. State Rep. Harry Geisinger, R-Roswell, who arranged the meeting, has said the measure would bring in new revenue for popular programs — such as the state’s HOPE college scholarship program, pre-K classes and trauma care — without raising taxes.

I spoke with a source close to the study of bringing horse-racing to Georgia for some background information. This person brought forth some concerns that should be addressed, stressing that there are sufficient reasons for pause without considering moral issues.

First, the horse-racing industry does not do well without gambling in addition to pari-mutuel betting. Those venues that lack casinos-style gambling are desperate to bring it in. It seems that the draw may not be the horses, but rather the gambling itself. To get the participants to stick around and spend money, additional types of gambling may be required.

In Illinois, the racetracks are having a difficult time competing against Indiana’s “racinos” which each have 2,000 slot machines. The slot machine proceeds are used to fatten the purses offered which attract more and better race entrants.

The situation is serious enough that some believe Illinois-based horse racing is nearly finished. Former Illinois Governor Jim Edgar has a stable and is furiously lobbying the state to allow slot machines at racetracks in order to save the industry.

Second, the representatives of the horse-racing industry believe the only location in Georgia that could be successful would be the metro Atlanta area. There are valid concerns that adding “racinos” and casinos to the area would harm Atlanta’s attempts to attract international businesses to headquarter there.

This concern would go away if industry officials would consider a location in more rural areas of the state. The impact on Atlanta’s profile would vanish and one could argue that the impact of adding new jobs in rural areas would help offset the negative effect of the casinos that seem inevitable if horse racing is established. Industry officials are intent; however on an address near metro Atlanta because of fears that insufficient traffic would be generated for racetracks to be successful.

Third, there is the question of labor. Many of the promised jobs are the four A.M., low-wage, back-breaking labor that many Americans do not want. Mix in HB-87 and there may be problems, even from legal foreign residents. Kentucky’s consideration of a bill similar to HB-87 and the Arizona law, has resulted in some stables skipping races in Kentucky.

In addition, it is reported that federal immigration officials have targeted the horse racing industry to crack down on illegals.

According to my source, the horse racing industry has conducted no studies in more than five years and that there are no examples of successful locations which do not have additional gambling with the pari-mutuel betting. Most importantly, horse racing enthusiasts and industry representatives have not made the case that this move would benefit the state or the taxpayers.

The bottom line is that without casino-style gambling, horse racing in Georgia is extremely unlikely to work. Rep. Geisinger’s enthusiasm notwithstanding, successful horse racing in Georgia is unlikely to be a reality and is even more unlikely to become a positive revenue stream for the state.

::UPDATE The same Bill Farrish mentioned in the AJC story believes that the horse racing industry in Kentucky cannot survive without slot machines. In this published letter to The Paulick Report, Farrish states that Kentucky is “in danger of seeing major farms shutter their operations and move to friendlier jurisdictions” unless additional gambling is approved for their state. Read the full letter for more dire predictions from the former Chairman of the Breeders’ Cup.

- 400 Other Positions Must Be Eliminated –

In a state already struggling with unemployment higher than the dismal national average, Robins Air Force Base (RAFB) has provided more bad news. On November 2nd, it was announced that RAFB would lose 600 jobs. This economy has not been kind to Middle Georgia and the job losses at RAFB will likely have a ripple effect throughout the area.

The Macon Telegraph reports that 200 employees of the Warner Robins Air Logistics Center (WRALC) have accepted offers for early retirement. The hope was that enough workers would accept the payoff so that there would be no involuntary separations.

Each worker who accepts the offer would get approximately $25,000 to either retire or resign, with the amount dependent upon several factors such as tenure. The 200 responses are far less than anticipated by management, with the low number probably dictated by the current high unemployment rate and the reduced chance of obtaining work elsewhere. While there may be other late acceptances of the offer, it appears fairly certain that the number will not be as high as hoped.

The announcement that Robins Air Force Base must reduce its approximately 23,000 employees by 600 caught many by surprise. With the current budget impasse and another possible round of Base Realignment and Closure Committee recommendations upcoming, employees are concerned. The Macon Telegraph story continues:

Many of the targeted positions are related to an Air Force Materiel Command reorganization initiative, also announced last week, to consolidate command of the three air logistics centers at Tinker Air Force Base in Oklahoma City. The Warner Robins Air Logistics Center command staff and the Aerospace Sustainment Center staff are being eliminated. The same changes are being made at all three logistics centers.

While many people are discussing the loss of jobs, with more potentially to follow if the Congressional “Super Committee” can’t resolve budget issues, a more important issue is that Robins AFB has lost its designation as an Air Logistics Center. This gives RAFB less of a say in future reductions in force.

RAFB is also home to the 78th Force Support Squadron, 402nd Maintenance Wing, 78th Air Base Wing, 542nd Combat Sustainment Wing, 330th Aircraft Sustainment Wing and the Aerospace Sustainment Directorate. RAFB is the largest single industrial complex in the state of Georgia and widely recognized as the largest economic engine in Middle Georgia.

And waits. And waits.

From the Ledger-Enquirer:

The Columbus area is poised to gain hundreds of civilian defense jobs from a $458 million contract that has been awarded to a pool of companies eager to do business at the Army’s Maneuver Center of Excellence at Fort Benning.

But the military and the contracting firms find themselves waiting and watching as the federal budget drama unfolds in Washington. A so-called congressional “super committee” is looking for ways to slash $1.2 trillion in spending, an effort likely to cause considerable financial pain for the Department of Defense.

“The super committee, I understand they have free rein. They can cut whatever they want to cut,” said Mike Burns, business developer and program manager for the Northrop Grumman Technical Services office in Columbus. “I think we’ll be safe because this isn’t for fluff. This is basic needs to train soldiers. So I think we’ll be good.”

[...] If the super committee — officially known as the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction and made up of six Democrats and six Republicans — can’t hammer out an agreement before the end of this year, the Defense Department will face an additional $600 billion in cuts. That will bring the total to more than $1 trillion over a decade and severely harm the military’s long-term readiness, critics have said.

The super-committee has until November 23 to present their budget reductions. Voting must occur before December 23.

In the meantime, Columbus continues to fight for its good name. There’s nothing better than a good dose of tension to make everyone’s holidays full of cheer.

I enjoy talking politics with members of our district GOP. I was on the phone with one of the executive committee members this weekend to discuss the transition and organization of district committees. We ended up on the topic of federal funding of state activities. He eventually said “I wish the state legislators would lay out an 8-10 year plan to ween us off of federal funding of highway projects.”  We also agreed on extending that plan to education as well.

From what I understand, there are many requirements/regulations/laws that are obeyed just to get full federal funding. A governor, state executive, or legislator wouldn’t be arrested…just wouldn’t get funding. Wait a minute…the state can’t make a decision to do something contrary to the federal government (and say that the law requires) because we won’t get money? Sounds like about 50 donkeys are being lead around with one big green money carrot tied to a stick by Uncle Sam.

It would be interesting to see how much (percentage-wise) that the federal government sends highway dollars to Georgia. Then, it would be interesting to see a few rising conservative stars in the state House and Senate that would lay out a plan to make Georgia more self-reliant starting with federal highway and education funding. It would be hard. We’ve been getting federal funds for years, so it would take many years to get ourselves off of it.

It might be a worthy experiment though.

Municipalities in Middle Georgia are being forced to deal with the changes in Washington. Both Macon and Columbus are discovering that earmarks may not have completely disappeared, but they are scarce and so is the money flowing from the federal government.

What may be surprising to many who do not follow politics and federal spending, is just how reliant states and municipalities are on federal dollars. Others of you will not be surprised that local governments are shaken by the decrease in federal grants.

In the story Midstate earmarks drying up in D.C., we find that Macon did not renew its contract with its lobbyist firm and is hoping for help from Congressman Sanford Bishop who sits on the House Appropriations Committee. Under newly-drawn Congressional maps, Bishop will represent a large portion of Bibb County and Macon.

This year, Bishop said he has spoken informally with officials from Columbus and Macon about their needs and plans a visit to Macon soon.
“Their needs are as great as they have ever been, but they understand that our fiscal climate is as stringent as it has ever been,” Bishop said. “There’s a limit on federal dollars to get our fiscal house in order. But we also have needs. The requests are going to have to be prioritized.”

Mike Gaymon, President of the Columbus Chamber of Commerce, has noted the changes when he spoke with Bishop and fellow Congressman Lynn Westmoreland. Gaymon is quoted as saying, “Projects might be worthwhile, but the well is running dry and we have to live within our means.”

Now we’ll see if Congress finally understands that spending money equals increasing tax revenues at some point. And perhaps someone will point out that over a half-billion dollars “invested” in Solyndra might have been put to better use elsewhere.

Let’s start with what we know about the bond rating issue and how it might affect the state of Georgia. Frankly, at this moment, it’s not much.

Standard & Poor’s (S&P) had reduced the bond rating of the federal government from AAA to AA+ while Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings, apparently satisfied with the recent budget agreement, have allowed the US to retain their highest debt ratings.

Georgia is one of only eight states to have earned the highest debt rating from all three services – at least for now. It remains to be seen if S&P will be willing to rate individual states higher than the federal government. It may depend upon how much of a state’s AAA rating is based upon backing from the federal government.

While apparently satisfied with the budget accord reached on August 2nd, Moody’s did release a statement dated August 4th, that is interesting. In part, it states:

With the raising of the federal debt ceiling, the risk of a U.S. default is removed, and the Aaa ratings assigned to the U.S. government, and directly and indirectly linked U.S. public finance ratings have been confirmed. While these indirectly linked issuers’ outlooks were moved to negative as a group based on the identification of certain shared characteristics, their outlooks will be reviewed on a case by case basis in the coming weeks. In order to have a stable outlook, an issuer will need to have credit quality that could be expected to remain higher than that of the U.S. government in the event that the sovereign were downgraded from Aaa.

It is worth noting that while Moody’s did not downgrade US debt, it was reviewing its municipal bond ratings for states and municipalities in cases where their debt is directly related to the US debt. There is no reason to believe S&P will not do the same. It would be logical if Fitch Rating had undertaken the same steps.

So what does that mean for Georgia and Georgia municipalities? At this point there is not an indication that any of the services will downgrade our state debt, but even if S&P does do so, Moody’s and Fitch have given no indication that they would follow suit.

There will likely be changes ahead even if the state’s debt ratings remain constant It will be surprising if there is not at least some contraction in federal spending. In the past, states and municipalities have been left with fewer funds and more responsibilities when federal spending was reduced.

The Georgia legislature has done a good job of keeping its head above water given the current economy and despite internal conflicts. Speaking of those internal conflicts, S&P was open about its dislike of unresolved conflict; just a word to the wise.

We can now expect higher scrutiny from the debt ratings services and less resources from the federal government. The belt tightening at the state and local level is not yet over. An already rough road has gotten a little rougher for a little longer.

Hi folks.

I know many of you, but I’m not sure how many of you know me. So, here is a brief bio. Most of it is actually true.

I’ve commented on Peach Pundit enough to know that many of you object to aliases. So, I will confess an open secret: “Ken in Eastman” is Ken Carroll who will now be posting as “Ken”. Yes, I’m shocked myself. I intend to launch an investigation later to see how this could have possibly happened.

I’m a Dodge County native and the current Dodge County GOP Chairman. Living in Dodge County can give one a unique perspective on politics, but I’m sometimes successful in repressing the cynicism. I survived writing a weekly political column for over five years in The Dodge County News though there were times when people were afraid to be seen with me in public. Politics in Dodge County is a contact sport, and if you like you can believe that refers solely to all of the hearty handshakes.

A course in Austrian School Economics as a college undergraduate had a large influence on my economic and political beliefs. I still keep copies of Friedrich Hayek’sThe Road to Serfdom, Ludwig von Mises’s Socialism, Jack Kemp’s An American Renaissance, Milton and Rose Friedman’s Free to Choose and Milton Friedman’s Capitalism and Freedom. And though Friedman was a monetarist, he still had good ideas and defended the free market ferociously.

I’ve followed politics since I was a child, but didn’t get involved until 1991 when I was living in Texas. My concern over the federal debt led to doing some writing for Henry Bonilla’s successful 1992 Congressional campaign. When I moved back to Georgia in 1993, I sought out Saxby Chambliss and aided his winning 1994 Congressional run. I’m open to the thought that I’m only an average writer and strategist, but a terrific, life-sized good luck charm. I’ve wandered in and out of politics ever since, holding several positions within the Republican Party, including serving a term as the Eighth Congressional District GOP Chairman back in the 90s.

I would describe myself as a libertarian-leaning conservative influenced by Edmund Burke. Or perhaps I’m actually a free market Whig who would err in the favor of personal liberty. I have a healthy distrust of government, but I also understand that pragmatism has its place.

I’m a music lover, a book addict, a baseball and college football fan, a political junkie and a writer. In my spare time I do other non-productive things.

“You know what I always say… When you plan ahead, when things happen you will always be prepared.” – Hank Hill

Governor Deal has ordered the Office of Planning and Budget to be prepared in case the ongoing debt ceiling impasse in Washington causes disruption in the receipt of federal funds.

“There is a possibility of disruption that must be considered, and we want to be as prepared as possible,” Robinson said.

If President Obama and Congress do not reach a deal to increase the $14.3 trillion the federal government is legally allowed to owe bondholders within days, the government might not be able to afford to pay federal employees and defense contractors, mail Social Security checks or, in the worst-case scenario, make interest payments on the debt.

If the debt ceiling is not raised, unemployment checks could stop immediately, Robinson said.

For other programs that are funded by the federal government but run by the state, such as the Medicaid and PeachCare health insurance programs for the poor and disabled, the state could come up with money to keep them running for a couple of weeks, Robinson said. The state spends money for those programs up-front and is reimbursed by the federal government later, he said.

I think the possibility of disruption in federal funds is remote because I’m sure the debt ceiling will be raised one way or another, but it’s wise for Deal to be prepared. I just hope the conservatives will be able to extract some real spending cuts before the GOP leadership caves.

Stateline has an article about preparations in other States. The article includes this ominious quote:

If the federal government’s credit rating is downgraded after the August 2 deadline comes and goes, Moody’s would likely wait seven to 10 days until deciding whether some states’ ratings also should be downgraded, a spokesman for the ratings agency tells The State.

I’m an enthusiastic supporter of MARTA.  I live next to a train station and take it when I can.  I think that its funding formula seriously hamstrings the system, so much so that the system has a perverse incentive not to improve lest they lose momentum on getting the law changed.  MARTA could benefit from a Giuliani-esque PR campaign of putting a cop on every train.  Not only would it improve safety, but it would send a message to would be suburban riders (those who drive their car to Doraville and North Point or those who one day welcome expansion to their counties and neighborhoods) that a safe and clean transportation alternative awaits them.

Unfortunately for MARTA, they are trapped in a zero sum formula whereby putting a cop on every train right now means fewer trains and buses running.  Mike Jacobs has a great idea in today’s insider.  Eliminate the funding formula, but require MARTA to commit a certain percentage of its budget to law enforcement.  That’s something the system needs to do anyway – and I would hope would do if they had the flexibility to do so.  I know in a perfect world MARTA wants to spend their money without any strings attached – but we don’t live in a perfect world.  Right now there’s a huge string wrapped around their necks.  This is a much smaller string, and, I believe, one everyone should be able to live with.  For reference, New York’s MTA spends about 3% of their labor costs on public safety.

Let me state from the outset that I like, and even have grown to respect, the AJC.  They provide a needed service, and we frankly rely on them (and others) for a lot of what we cover here at Peach Pundit.  I know quite a few of their reporters as well as much of their editorial staff.  And generally, I do think they’ve done a better job in recent years of keeping ideology on the editorial page and have made an effort to take a better middle ground on the issues they cover as news, and how they cover them.  I don’t like them being scapegoated by pols claiming the “lib’rul AJC” is out to get them. 

Today, however, there is a bit of exception that deserves a bit of attention. 

Headline:  Lottery Props Up Jackpots; Gives Less To State

Twentieth Paragraph: 

 ”While money for education has fallen as a percentage of total revenue in Georgia’s lottery, revenue has grown in actual dollars from $647 million in fiscal 1999 to $884 million last year. Still, it is not enough to fund HOPE and pre-k at the same levels.”

First expert cited (regarding claim that lower payouts on some games generates more players): 

Richard McGowan, a Boston College economics professor who has written critically about state lotteries, said there is something to the argument. Lotteries have life cycles, and Georgia’s mature game needs to reward gamers to keep their interest, he said.”

…

But McGowan said states are competing with other gaming outlets, including casinos in nearby states. That means lottery officials cannot reduce prize money without hurting themselves, he said.

“It’s a tough business to be in because there is so much gambling,” he said. “Even the worst slot machine pays out 90 percent.”

Second Expert Opionion:

“A state audit of the lottery released just before the HOPE vote in the Senate offers further evidence that less is more. The audit found the Georgia Lottery is fifth-highest among 42 lotteries in the nation for jackpots and still ranked seventh in total money transferred to the state because it had maintained high overall sales.”

The argument for increasing the percentage is given by State Senator Jason Carter, who has become the point person on HOPE reform for Democrats in opposition, (and has done an admirable job of gaining some political traction for his positon), but the argument does nothing to refute the above two experts.

His argument is buttressed in this article by comments from a Peachtree Corners Parent, and a Stone Mountain Auto Mechanic, neither of whom seem to have a strong opinion that the lottery payouts should be changed.

In sum, the headline and lede of this story don’t come close to matching the content contained within.  The lottery continues to increase sales AND payouts to the state.  Experts from both the State and an outside economist have indicated that the Lottery Commission’s strategy most likely have increased the amount of money paid to the state, not robbed from it.

Yet, the AJC provides a distinct impression that the lottery is paying the state less.  Semantics, yes.  But let’s be real.  It was 11 paragraphs into this story before the reporter chose to include anything other than cuts and broken promises.  Yet all the facts are about successful competion and increasing revenues.

The AJC editors need to take a look at their reporting on HOPE.  The issue is rightfully the first one state Democrats have found any political traction since their rout last November.  The AJC would be wise to ensure that their coverage doesn’t become cheerleading for the cause, and give cause for those who want or need there to be a “lib’rul AJC” for their own scapegoating purposes.

Today’s Courier Herald Column:

It wasn’t supposed to be close.

Nathan Deal released his plan for restructuring Georgia’s HOPE scholarship program with not only Republican leadership of both House and Senate flanking him at his press conference, but also Representatives Stacey Abrams and Calvin Smyre. Abrams is the new House Minority leader, a respected in-town Atlanta Democrat from the state’s more progressive wing of the party.  Smyre, a former Democratic Party of Georgia Chairman, served in House leadership when Democrats were the only party in Georgia, and represented a more broad governing coalition.

Abrams was tapped by Governor Deal to be inside the room, and given a real voice to alter key provisions of HOPE.  She is credited with protecting key provisions such as maintaining funding for remedial programs in technical schools, as well as initiating a loan program to assist funding gaps caused by reduced tuition coverage.  In exchange for these concessions, Abrams became an advocate.

The inclusion of Abrams and Smyre was, in political reality, political gravy for new Governor Deal.  Elected in November with a 10% spread over his Democratic rival, Deal came into office with a full slate of Republican constitutional officers, 35 (of 56) Republican Senators, and 116 (of 180) Republican House members.  With the first major policy initiative of a new Republican Governor backed by near super-majorities in both chambers of the General Assembly, HOPE adjustments were assured passage by the new one party Georgia. 

That is, until that whole “two Georgias” issue resurfaced.

Back when Georgia was a one party state under that other party, Democrats often had a campaign theme of “two Georgias”.  While never given specific boundaries, there was presumed a rural Georgia and a metro Atlanta Georgia.  Sometimes it was a rich Georgia versus a poor Georgia.  Black versus White.  North Versus South.  Us against them. 

Folks assuming that one party rule would be an end to competitive politics under the gold dome received a wakeup call Monday and Tuesday when Senator Jason Carter (D-Decatur)  somewhat unexpectedly made the coronation of Deal’s HOPE reform package an actual contest for passage.  Though the bill won Senate approval, Carter was able to appeal to rural Georgia Republicans by using a simple spreadsheet to make a sharp point: voting for his proposal to means test HOPE would ensure 100% college funding for virtually all of HOPE recipients in their district.

In placing clear data in the hands of rural Senators, Carter was able to send a direct message.  If he can hand you this today, an opponent can mail or robo-call your voters this same info next November.  And in a state where HOPE has become our own untouchable entitlement, a vote for reducing HOPE benefits to 90% of tuition for all when 100% can be preserved for their constituents if more was taken from suburban Atlanta families was compelling.  In the end, it was enough to extract a guarantee that the top two students from every high school in Georgia would receive a full ride, not just those with a 3.7 GPA and 1200 SAT.

In winning these concessions, Carter has also begun to crystallize a potential path forward to Democratic relevancy, and perhaps, his own upward trajectory.  Republicans moved from obscurity to majority party by picking off coalitions within the Democratic party to systematically win issues, build a platform, and eventually, the state.

Democrats, meanwhile, have been consumed with hand wringing and teeth gnashing over how to reunite their urban Atlanta base with rural Georgians who are bolting the party in droves.  Carter of Decatur has the Atlanta Democratic base covered.  But just down the road from his district is a Presidential library bearing his family name, one with its roots still firmly entrenched in Southwest Georgia’s peanut producing soil. 

At the end of this day, Deal and the Republican majority won the day with their solution to preserve HOPE.  The silver lining for Democrats is that Jason Carter may be reason for them to maintain hope as well.

I’ve been silent about this HOPE “thing” since I posted the initial proposal. In fact, I’ve been silent on the “premier Georgia politics website”, period. Throughout this fishing trip (both literally and figuratively) of mine, I’ve had a chance to sit back and watch the drama of trying to save a beloved part of what makes Georgia great unfold. In the wake of the changes to the scholarship being passed in the Senate (35-20, on straight party lines), I’m ready to break my silence.

Full disclaimer: this is the perspective of a college student, first-generation, from a rural area, who will be hit by these changes come August 2011. And what is the first thought I have?

There is something terribly wrong here.

And it’s not with our state leaders.

Most of you can guess where I’m going to line up when it comes to the actual proposal, so I’ll start this off with something else. The behavior exhibited by certain peeved-off college students, commonly known as my “peers”, is absolutely embarrassing to me as a Georgian and as a college student.

Childish behavior does nothing. Intelligent ideas, alternatives and discourse do. Yelling “kill the bill” in the middle of a floor debate and shouting “shame” at Representatives walking out of the Capitol accomplish nothing. Respect, open dialogue and thoughtfulness do.

For example, here’s a quote directed towards me from angry student (but cleaned up a bit):

“I’m glad to know that for you, eating one piece of (stuff) is a whole lot difference than eating 10 pieces of (stuff). For me, it’s still eating (stuff).”

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is just what’s wrong. I’m not a stickler for censorship, and my language gets a bit salty from time to time, but attempts at dropping more “S-bombs” than South Park’s Cartman with Tourettes is not the way to change legislation or convince others of your argument.

Most college students on my campus (or as I call it, the Promised Land), could care less about state politics, at least until times get rough. All of a sudden choosing to care about what goes on under the Gold Dome is going to get you nowhere when all you have are childish attacks, elementary school behavior and little to no thoughtful ideas about the topic at hand.

Which brings me to part of the title of this post: man up. The simple fact that seems to be lost on many of my “peers” is the truth that college students in Georgia have it better than any other students in any other state of this great country. Why don’t we take a trip up to New York and ask students there how they would feel about getting 90% of their current tuition rates paid? Why don’t we ask the out of state students from Texas (who not only have to deal with tuition but the cost of merely getting to Athens) who attend UGA how they would feel about getting that much money? Why don’t we ask Peach Pundit’s own Rep. Buzz Brockway what he would have done for that money when he was working 20 hours a week to get through college? Man up.

Sorry I’m not sorry for telling the truth in a blunt way. I know how harsh this sounds but the thing to remember here is that I’m going to be dealing with these changes myself. I would much rather live in a state that requires a balanced budget, which demands action on this matter now, than one that would drive us into debt by the time I’m out of college.

Which brings me to HOPE (for the future).

Do I wish that there was a way to not have SAT scores factored into the equation? Yes.

Do I hope that at some point video lottery systems will be implemented in Georgia? Yes.

Do I wish that there was a grandfather clause in the new system? Yes.

Am I realist? A pragmatic (at least in my own mind) thinker who realizes that ideas, numbers and viewpoints have been taken into account? A thinker who sees that compromises have been achieved and that something must be done?

More so than any of the first three, yes.

What we have here is a painful, well-thought out, bipartisan (in the People’s House at least), compromise-laden proposal that will preserve a cherished, merit-based scholarship for college students for years to come. As it should be. There is no way to avoid the sting of budget woes and tough economic times; this proposal has taken every possible step to make that blow as light as possible.

I applaud our leaders for the compromises regarding the 3.3 GPA, the full pre-k days and full tuition for the top two highest high school graduates. As a rural Georgian, compromises such as these make me feel considerably better about the SAT being incorporated as a factor.

Which brings us to “Real Deals”. Governor Deal could have waited another year before dealing with this matter; he did not. He could have turned a blind eye and refused to listen; he did not. He could have refused to work across party lines with lawmakers and leaders; he did not. Am I saying that Governor Deal is (two months in) the best Governor we’ve ever had? No. Am I saying that I am going to agree with every single decision he makes? No.

What I am saying is that we have a steady leader (key word) as our state’s chief executive; a leader who is willing to listen to all sides of an issue and offer thought out solutions to problems in a timely manner. Realize it or not, that’s better than a lot of other states in these great United States.

Which also ties back into the leadership in the General Assembly; it is not even Crossover Day yet and the biggest single issue (along with the budget) is set to be resolved by Thursday. How anyone can not say that this has been handled in a timely, professional fashion (agree or disagree with the bill) is beyond me. Which also ties back into having a Governor who…you see where I’m going here.

Bottom line: HOPE has been preserved. We have a scholarship in place that rewards students for academic excellence and keeps them in Georgia. I think we can all agree that we wish it would have never come to this point, or maybe that’s just a biased college student’s opinion. Either way, kudos to this bill. There are times when we are thriving and there are times we are surviving. Now is the time that decisions have to be made in regards to surviving.

These changes to HOPE will set us on the path to thrive again.

Today’s Courier Herald Column:

In my post college career I was an Atlanta banker.  One week before my 23^rd birthday, I was placed in charge of a branch in Mableton Georgia.  I had to quickly assimilate into an established staff that was still referring to a part-time teller with over two years experience as “the new girl”.  Upon meeting one of the more seasoned tellers, I was told – after she literally looked me head to toe, twice – “Hmmph. I don’t need this. I’ve got one of you at home.”  I promoted her.

It was a good group, and over two years, no one quit, and no one was fired.  The branch far exceeded all goals given to us.  But in order to get the job done, we had to make occasional allowances and adapt to whatever the real world handed us.

One of the more challenging events was when the Cobb County School System decided to adopt a calendar that incorporated multiple half-day teacher work days.  Of my staff of 10, half had children in Cobb County schools.  And each requested these days off.  Every one of them.

We discussed various scenarios of whom to decide to allow off.  But generally the ones with the lowest seniority were the lowest paid, and even the senior staff couldn’t afford the expense of a half day of daycare, which would cost them more than they would make for their full day of work.

Eventually, necessity stoked creativity, and we brought about seven kids into our break room and conference room for the afternoons that involved teacher work days.  No one took time off so that we were fully staffed, and between the oldest kids and rotating staff members, we kept the children entertained and our customers were taken care of.  We also got some coins rolled with cheap child labor.

And so it was with this experience in mind that I was initially quite skeptical of Governor Deal’s plan to move Georgia’s lottery funded pre-kindergarten program to shorter days.  His original plan would have been to scale back the Pre-K day from 6.5 hours to 4.  This invoked memories of my rogue daycare center.  The vast majority of kids in Georgia’s Pre-K program have working parents, and the strain of trying to find half-day daycare or other arrangements would make the program cost-prohibitive for many.  I’m guessing the Governor and General Assembly got an earful, as the proposal has now been adjusted to restore the day to 6.5 hours, but reduce the number of days from 180 days to 160.

It will be much easier for parents to make proper day care arrangements for the 20 full days than 180 half days under this new plan.  And thus, the children targeted for this program are much more likely to benefit rather than end up in just a full day of daycare.

The downside to this program is that Deal’s original plan would have expanded the program by 5,000 additional students.  Now, the expectation is for just 2,000 additional student slots to open up.

Overall, however, I would have to give credit to the Governor and his staff for getting this one right, or at least, making the proposal better.  Like it or not, when dealing with education, especially a program targeted toward at-risk children, the program has to work for student and parent.  And for the program to work for the parent, it also has to be conducive to their employment.

For those still committed to the value of public education, these are good changes that deal with realities of our current budget.  Everyone gives a little, and most still get what they need.  And in the process, the Governor gets another early victory.

There’s an article in today’s Politico about how Senators Saxby Chambliss and Mark Warner are trying to come together in a bipartisan fashion and wrangle the bloated federal budget:

“If we put this off, we are approaching financial Armageddon,” Warner said. “We don’t need another study, we need to start.”

Though there is no way to eliminate the country’s $14 trillion debt in a single shot, the Obama administration and members of Congress on both sides of the aisle must come together, the senators said. Their event in Richmond was the first of at least two town halls – the other scheduled for next month in Atlanta – aimed at generating public support for the politically risky step of proposing substantial reductions in spending on entitlement programs, including Social Security and Medicare.

“For a Republican to put revenues on the table is significant. For a Democrat to put entitlements on the table is significant,” Chambliss said. “The only way we’re going to solve this problem is to have a dialogue about all these issues, because there is no silver bullet.”

The fact is that the Senate is still controlled by the Democrats, so the Republicans will have to stand strong on principles but work with the Democrats if we’re to get anything accomplished.  We must cut government spending, and I hope we can resist the urge to raise taxes.  I’m interested to see what comes out of this.

Once we get word about when the town hall in Atlanta will be, we’ll pass that information along so you can air thoughts about the plan to your Senator.

Today’s Courier Herald Column:

Happy 10^th Amendment Day!

Last Friday, about 12 members of the Georgia Senate Republican Caucus held a press conference to announce that today (Monday) would be 10^th Amendment Day in Georgia.  It will not be a state or federal holiday, however, so the 89.6% of Georgians that want a job and have one will have to go to work as usual.  The Senate, however, will take time off from solving actual problems to discuss three pieces of legislation with no practical value, but are instead designed to appease a growing fringe movement within the GOP base.

Senator Judson Hill (R-Marietta) is back again fighting “Obamacare” at the state level, by introducing Senate Resolution 55, a constitutional amendment stating that Georgians can choose their own method of receiving healthcare, free from federal government interference.  Hill already managed to pass this law last year as SB 317 via SB 411, and it isn’t being credited with changing anything yet for Georgia citizens.  Yet, Hill loves any camera that will let him say “Obamacare”, and SR 55 is his vehicle of choice this year.

Senator Mitch Seabaugh (R-Sharpsburg) is sponsoring The Georgia Energy Freedom Act , a bill which preemptively attacks  the “threat of Cap & Trade” and the EPA, and will delay implementation of nebulous and unspecified new regulations that the federal government may propose, allowing the Governor to ask the Attorney General to sue on behalf of Georgia. 

SB 61 aims to not only trump the laws of the federal government, but the laws of economics as well.  It asserts Georgia’s rights to allow manufacturers to produce incandescent light bulbs that would be sold and consumed entirely within the state, thus avoiding the federal government’s powers under the commerce clause.  Sponsored by Senator Barry Loudermilk (R-Cassville), the bill is aimed at luring a manufacturer to Georgia to produce light bulbs that could only be sold to 3% of the American population.  Senators noted in a response to a question at their press conference that all but one US manufacturers that make incandescent bulbs have already shifted production to China.  Yet they were gleeful at the prospect of unnamed manufacturers rushing to Georgia to produce a product with a limited sales base, no chance for export, and one which would require a brand new sales and distribution system.

Meanwhile, the House has decided not to be outdone on 10^th Amendment day, and will hold a sub-committee hearing on a bill to force banks to accept gold and silver deposits.   Rep. Bobby Franklin (R-Marietta) along with Senator David Shafer (R-Duluth) have sponsored similar bills that would burden Georgia’s banks with accepting precious metals as deposits, and keeping these deposits available upon customer demand, thus ending the banks’ ability to conduct fractional reserve lending.

Georgia currently has an unemployment rate of 10.4%, significantly above the national average.  I’m struck while watching a replay of this press conference what unemployed Georgians think of 1/3 of the Senate GOP members gleefully touting at a press conference that their economic development plan is based on luring a manufacturer of incandescent light bulbs to Georgia, to produce bulbs only for Georgians? 

Meanwhile, Georgia continues to lead the country in bank failures during 2011, and has had more bank failures than any other state since 2008.  Yet we’re holding hearings on forcing banks to create a parallel currency system that would end fractional reserve banking – the part of banking that enables banks to earn the vast majority of their profits.

Most of Georgia’s growth has occurred because we understood that we were the Gateway to the South, East Coast, or even the nation though facilities like Hartsfield-Jackson or the Port of Savannah.  Atlanta fueled its growth as the financial capitol of the South.

The vision put forth by the Senate on 10^th Amendment day is not one of progress.  It is not one of growth.  It is that of a petulant child, noisy and self-absorbed, attracting attention but not in a good way.  It signals the days of Georgia leading are behind us.  It also signals that we would rather appeal to the fringes of a base than lead on real issues of the day.

The 10^th Amendment is an important and relevant amendment to the Constitution.  It serves a noble purpose.  Political grandstanding is not one of them.

I realize that the Senate Democrats plan not withstanding, the changes to HOPE are virtually locked in and the matter is relatively procedural between now and when the revisions to the program are law.

That said, our own Dr. Jay floated an idea in the comments section that I believe deserves serious consideration/discussion.

The current health insurance setup in our country, and medicare reimbursements specifically, have established a precedent for governments to reimburse service fees for certain groups at a different rate than other groups.  He suggests this methodology be applied to HOPE.  Essentially, colleges who accept HOPE will be paid a specific flat amount per student, but that amount will be less than the full rate of tution.  The school, however, would have to accept that as “payment in full”, and not charge the students the difference.  

It would then be up to the school to determine  if they accept HOPE scholars, and how they would make up the tuition gap.   Some schools could fund the gap from endowments, others may have to raise the tuition on non-HOPE scholars more.  Not sure, just thinking as I type.

But one benefit out of this type of proposal seems to jump out at me:  There would seem to be a built in check on the amount of grade inflation at the college level that is currently designed to keep kids receiving those HOPE funds.

Discuss:

Today’s Courier Herald Column:

I’m a huge fan of Arthur Blank.

He co-founded The Home Depot and turned himself and his partners into billionaires, and also made dozens of his original employees millionaires along the way.  His public persona is one of quiet confidence and success, but is he’s neither boisterous nor flashy. He is the anti-Trump.

Blank’s transformation of the Falcons, after a few early misfires that we can chalk up to being a bit over-eager and an NFL learning curve, has been remarkable.  His hires of Thomas Dimitroff and Mike Smith have brought a professionalism to the team that it has not experienced in the history of the franchise.  I’m glad after living in the Atlanta area for over 40 years I can finally claim to be a Falcons fan, and I now attend most home games.

And so, with so much going well for the Falcons, and with a quality guy like Blank at the helm, it pains me a bit to write the rest of today’s column.  Last week, the Georgia World Congress Center Authority and the Atlanta Falcons signed a “memorandum of understanding” to proceed toward the construction of a new, open air $700 Million stadium, to be built north of the current Georgia Dome, which will remain.

Were the Authority just providing land on a sweet ground lease deal to the Falcons, I’d have little objection.  But the GWCCA will be issuing bonds to cover approximately $400 Million of the new stadium’s construction costs, to be paid by hotel motel taxes.  This tax was extended by the Georgia General Assembly last year, with little fanfare, until 2050. 

And thus, with the taxes burning up the palms of the GWCCA, they’re anxious to expand their campus for a venue that will be used for 8 regular season games per year.   $400 Million in tax money in exchange for 30 seasons in the new facility, or 240 games.  Quick math tells me that’s $1.67 million tax dollars per game, so that Atlanta can have two football stadiums next door to each other downtown.

Forbes Magazine’s last annual ranking of NFL franchise values placed the Falcons 26^th out of 32 teams, citing the club’s paltry $5 Million in revenue from its Georgia Dome lease agreement.  Clearly, a better deal for Blank means a higher value for the Falcons.  But should taxpayers contribute $400 Million to the effort?  The GWCCA looks at the tax revenue as free money, because it is paid for by those from out of town. 

Atlanta currently has a wish list of major projects that could be funded by a hotel tax.  The City’s streetcar plan only has partial funding.  There is no funding for beltline transit. Likewise, there are studies underway for a multi-modal transit station downtown, but no funding for commuter rail, or any other rail, that the station would serve.

Yet, with real needs facing Atlanta’s convention reliant infrastructure, and with the Georgia Dome to remain in place as a venue for Georgia State football, SEC championships, basketball tournaments and the like, it makes little sense to take that money and build a duplicative facility farther away from MARTA lines in order to benefit to one man.

Given that this plan has had little resistance thus far, it’s doubtful that sanity and reason will prevail.  But if Georgians were to be best served, the $400 million in revenue from these taxes would be applied to significant needs, not an insignificant want.  

There is an alternative here.  The GWCCA should fund critical downtown infrastructure with the extended tax revenue (knowing that eliminating the tax is never an option), and the Georgia Dome could be given to the Falcons.   If we’re going to go out of our way to help out one person, let’s just do it directly, and then take the available revenue and fund projects that benefit the entire state.