Category: 2012 Presidential

Bittersweet Election Day

From where I stand some bad things and some good things happened last night.

First the bad: I’m obviously disappointed with the outcome of the Presidential Election. Finger pointing on the Right has already begun and I’m sure the 2016 campaign will start before we finish carving our turkeys in a few weeks. Smarter political minds than mine will dissect yesterdays results ad nauseam but I have no interest in that. President Obama won and I hope he and the Congress very quickly pivot from campaign mode to governing mode. The nation faces very serious problems that, as Charlie points out, need to be addressed quickly.

The so-called fiscal cliff Washington is headed toward could have serious implications for Georgia. We have a large number of military installations in our State and should the Pentagon bear its share of half a trillion in cuts Georgia will be impacted. Other cuts mandated by sequestration could impact Georgia’s budget as well. Yes serious cuts to the Federal budget need to be made but I fear the gridlock in DC means no serious reforms will be made only more unfunded mandates pushed down to the States. The end of various temporary tax cuts and the implementation of new taxes related to Obamacare are also of concern. I have little hope these problems will be addressed adequately. Perhaps after a few good nights of sleep my optimism will return.

Now for the good: I’m very pleased the charter school amendment passed with solid support. I’ve written more on that topic than I care to think about but suffice it to say I remain convinced this is a positive step forward for our State. I’m glad most Georgians agreed with me on amendment 1.

We can examine results in particular races as we move forward but last night remains for me a bittersweet election day.

Election Day Open Thread

If you’re like me you’re not getting much work done today. So, to help kill time here’s an open thread to talk about the election, what’s happening out there and what’s going to happen tonight.

Some numbers, purportedly actual early votes from Ohio, floated around the internet earlier today before being debunked. However, analysis of early voting totals, which are real, continues.

Some anecdotal election day observations from Instapundit.

The AJC’s minute by minute report.

The President’s campaign has paid some money today to promote the “#voteobama” hashtag on Twitter. You can take a peek at it here.

#votemitt, while not promoted, is attracting attention as well.

This is what the Rock Springs UMC polling place in Lawrenceville looked like earlier this today:

The polling places I drove by mid-morning all had steady traffic. Not unexpected in a Presidential election.

What are you folks seeing out there?

And because you won’t care anymore tomorrow, here’s Bad Lip Reading’s review of the debates:

University of Colorado Model Still Predicts A Romney Win On Election Night

The University of Colorado’s quadrennial model to predict who will win the electoral college vote allocation has been updated with the most recent economic data.  It still predicts a win for Mitt Romney on November 6th:

According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes — down five votes from their initial prediction — and short of the 270 needed to win.

The new forecast by political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver is based on more recent economic data than their original Aug. 22 prediction. The model itself did not change.

“We continue to show that the economic conditions favor Romney even though many polls show the president in the lead,” Bickers said. “Other published models point to the same result, but they looked at the national popular vote, while we stress state-level economic data.”

While many election forecast models are based on the popular vote, the model developed by Bickers and Berry is based on the Electoral College and is the only one of its type to include more than one state-level measure of economic conditions. They included economic data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Of course, it’s only a model, but it’s been a fairly accurate model:

The state-by-state economic data used in their model have been available since 1980. When these data were applied retroactively to each election year, the model correctly classifies all presidential election winners, including the two years when independent candidates ran strongly: 1980 and 1992. It also correctly estimates the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore won the popular vote but George W. Bush won the election through the Electoral College.

What’s interesting is to see how the battleground states are predicted to go by this model:

Of the 13 battleground states identified in the model, the only one to change in the update was New Mexico — now seen as a narrow victory for Romney. The model foresees Romney carrying New Mexico, North Carolina, Virginia, Iowa, New Hampshire, Colorado, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Florida. Obama is predicted to win Michigan and Nevada.

In Colorado, which Obama won in 2008, the model predicts that Romney will receive 53.3 percent of the vote to Obama’s 46.7 percent, with only the two major parties considered.

So, there you have it.  Interpret the numbers as you will.  As usual, your mileage may vary.  How do you predict the electoral college will be divided on November 6th?

Wait – Romney only leads by 6?

So – Matt Towery apparently slipped in the shower and hit his head and put out a “poll” showing Romney leading by about a bazillion points, and also that only 5% of Georgians think Obama will do a better job on the economy, and that no one wants to go to dinner with the President.  Best comment I saw was that maybe just a lot of people that responded weren’t hungry.  Now on the heels of this Fox 5 poll (and to anyone from Fox5 reading this – how can you release that garbage with your name on it?), internet pollster YouGov is out with a new poll of Georgia – one of what seems like a multi-state monthly poll that checked in on almost half of the states.

YouGov has a national panel of respondents that they randomly select and match to a stratified sample that complete their polls online.  It’s new-fangled technology to be certain, but they have a decent track record.  They weight their survey using the 2006/2007 American Community Survey results and use 2008 exit polling and turnout as a guide.

They show Romney with a 6 point lead – 50/44, but looking under the hood at their crosstabs, they also show African Americans making up just shy of 26% of the electorate.  I personally think people get a little carried away “reweighting” every poll that comes out until it suits their fancy – maybe fewer African American respondents was naturally and scientifically balanced by interviewing more white Democrats than normal – you never know and that’s why it’s dangerous to reweight to your heart’s desire and also kind of the point of the margin of error.

But I will say that in 2008, African Americans made up 30% of the actual voters (roughly the same % as registered voters), and even in 2010 – a down year for Democrats they accounted for 28% of all voters.  For 25% of the electorate you’d have to go all the way back to 2004 – when the decidedly very white John Kerry was the standard bearer.  So…if the electorate is really 4-5% more African American than YouGov’s sample and you were to recklessly reweight this survey, you’d come up with pretty much a 47-47 tie.  My firm conducted an IVR survey for Better Georgia before the conventions in August and we had among likely voters a 49-46 Romney lead, with a tie game among all registered voters.

So pick your poison – giant Romney lead (IA/Fox5), modest Romney lead (YouGov), tiny Romney lead (20/20 Insight for Better Georgia) or jump ball (YouGov re-weight/20-20 RV).  One thing is for sure – at the Presidential level this state isn’t as boringly predictable as it used to be – and could be a legit swing state contender in 2016.  Maybe let’s not get rid of that electoral college afterall!

Romney Leads Georgia By 21?

A new Insider Advantage poll says Governor Romney leads President Obama 56-35 here in Georgia. It’s no surprise Romney leads, even comfortably, but am I the only one who thinks 21 points is a bit too much?

Anyway another question in the poll shows even less support for Obama:

Another question asked Georgia voters who they’d rather have dinner with. Some 41 percent said Romney, while only 5 percent said President Obama.

Discuss.

Ryan Accepts Vice Presidential Nomination

Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan took the stage tonight here in Tampa to accept his nomination for Vice President. Though 42, Ryan has been in politics for some time now, serving in Congress for 14 yrs. Ryan gained national attention and a following among conservatives for proposing a budget he called the “Roadmap for America’s Future.” Democrats criticized the plan as ‘radical’ and ‘extreme’ even though the Ryan plan takes 27 years to balance the budget. Calling that plan radical either demonstrates how far left the Democrats have moved or how deep in debt we really are…or both.

Picking a running mate is often called the first decision a President makes. Ryan’s selection seemed to solidify and energize the Republican base behind Romney. It injected a measure of seriousness to the campaign, as Ryan himself seemed to acknowledge:

“I accept the calling of my generation to give our children the America that was given to us, with opportunity for the young and security for the old – and I know that we are ready.

Our nominee is sure ready. His whole life has prepared him for this moment – to meet serious challenges in a serious way, without excuses and idle words. After four years of getting the run-around, America needs a turnaround, and the man for the job is Governor Mitt Romney.

Despite being the guy who wants to cut everything, Ryan is able to communicate his message with a hopeful tone. He ended his speech expressing hope for the future and rallying people to the Romney/Ryan cause:

“The right that makes all the difference now, is the right to choose our own leaders. And you are entitled to the clearest possible choice, because the time for choosing is drawing near. So here is our pledge.

We will not duck the tough issues, we will lead.

We will not spend four years blaming others, we will take responsibility.

We will not try to replace our founding principles, we will reapply our founding principles.

The work ahead will be hard. These times demand the best of us – all of us, but we can do this. Together, we can do this.

AG Olens Named Speaker at GOP Convention

Georgia Republicans should be proud that Attorney General Sam Olens was selected as one of the five headline speakers at the 2012 convention in Tampa. Other speakers include Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, Florida AG Pam Bondi, Texas Republican U.S. Senate nominee Ted Cruz and Puerto Rico Governor Luis Fortuño.

Olens remarked, “We can do better as a country. We must empower Americans to make their own choices across the board. The jobs-killing, unconstitutional policies coming out of Washington, D.C. must be undone. Elections do have consequences and we will start to put our country back on track at the Republican National Convention when we nominate Mitt Romney.”

Who were you expecting to have a major speaking role?

Lawsuit Filed Against Republican National Committee On Question Of Bound Delegates

A lawsuit has been filed by delegates elected to the Republican National Convention against the Republican National Committee and the chairmen of the Republican Parties in various states and U.S. territories.  The suit is asking an opinion from the court on whether or not a delegate elected to the national convention is truly bound to a candidate per the state Republican Party’s rules and state law.

Two interesting names show up on the suit:  Sahar Hekmati and Cheryl Dalton–both elected as delegates to the national by the convention held by the 13th Congressional district which was nullified by the state convention.  I’m not sure if the 13th district has held its “do-over” convention yet under the supervision of the GAGOP or who was elected as delegates and alternates to the national convention if said convention took place, but it would make me wonder if these two could be a party to the lawsuit if the convention where they were elected was declared null and void.  If someone has information regarding the 13th district, please leave it in the comments.

Another thing to ponder would be if the “winner-take-all” system for the electoral college and the “faithless elector” laws some states have on the books could be challenged if this case actually goes to court.

::UPDATED:: According to a couple of the commenters, the 13th Congressional District will be holding their “do-over” convention on Tuesday, June 19th at 7:00 p.m. at the Lithia Christian Center, 2548 Vulcan Dr., Lithia Springs, GA 30122.  Thanks for the info.

::UPDATE 2:: Sahar Hekmati emailed me a copy of her appeal memorandum of the state convention’s nullification of the 13th Congressional District’s convention to the RNC.