From Dumb and Dumber (one of the funniest movies of all-time):
Lloyd: What are the chances of a guy like you and a girl like me, you know, ending up together? Just give it to me straight.
Mary: Not good.
Lloyd: Not good as in, one out of a hundred?
Mary: I’d say more like one out of a million.
Lloyd: [smiles] So you’re telling me there’s a chance!
I feel like that’s what we’re doing here. I keep seeing all of these posts telling me that this is either Roy’s election to lose, or its an uphill battle for Nathan Deal or that Carol Porter is going to be our next Lieutenant Governor. Does anyone else think that there is some grasping at straws taking place here? Someone that I respect told me that if any of the ethical allegations regarding Nathan Deal or Casey Cagle (cough, cough, hurt back) end up carrying some significant weight, that it could sink almost the entire GOP ticket. Okay, I will concede that point. But, isn’t that the one out of a million scenario?
The same friend also pointed out that, despite how you all feel/don’t feel about GOP rule in the state of Georgia, Sonny Perdue’s approval rating is still close to 70%. There are virtually no seats in the State Capitol, currently occupied by Republicans, that have a legitimate shot of being won by Democrats. I’ve never met Roy Barnes or Carol Porter. I’m sure they’re all good people outside of the political arena. So I definitely don’t mean to disparage either of them. And I welcome the chance for them to prove me wrong on this:
The chances of either of them winning their respective elections this year are one out of a million.
“But Jace, Republicans are disgruntled with Casey Cagle. They might sit this one out or vote for Porter.” Republicans are always disgruntled with someone. And they always have some sort of empty threat. One time, it was to walk out on Saxby Chambliss at the state convention. Never happened. Or to boo Johnny Isakson. Never happened. Back in 2006, a lot of Ralph Reed supporters said that they would “never vote for Cagle after the campaign he ran” against Reed. Never happened. For all of the outrage I’m told Republicans carry, none of it ever amounts to anything. In the end (and you can say this with ANY political party) when TheMan starts waving the bloody flag, the troops fall in line.
Republican turnout at the polls for the primary absolutely trounced Democratic turnout. Say what you want about the reasons why, but the numbers are what they are. Republican turnout around the country is huge. Even the President’s Press Secretary admits that the Democrats will probably lose the house and possibly the Senate. And we think that Georgia is going to somehow be different? With Jim Marshall and John Barrow as vulnerable as they have ever been, in a year where Republicans are on a mission to derail the Obama presidency by controlling congress, do we really think that Georgia is not going to mirror the country?
“But Jace, it’s anti-incumbent not pro-Republican.” Ok, well, how many incumbents in Georgia lost their primaries? Two? I know of John Wiles, but wasn’t their one more? Two. How many GOP house/senate seats under the Gold Dome are legitimately up for grabs by the Democrats? I would be confident in saying, “zero.” Outside of the national political scene, this whole anti-incumbent thing doesn’t really hold water. Even nationally, when you think about it, not that many incumbents lost. More than usual, which feeds the whole “anti-incumbent” craze, but overall it wasn’t that many. This year is an anti-Democrat year, or as some would call it, a Republican year. Plain and simple.
Georgia is a Republican state. It was trending that way when Roy first got elected, and its only become more solidly Republican ever since. Every election year since Roy first got elected, at least one Democratic-controlled statewide office has come under GOP control. Meanwhile, the Republican held statewide offices haven’t changed hands. All anecdotal evidence aside, this year is not looking good for state/national Democrats. Sorry Roy/Carol, but only if this “ethics stuff” with Deal and Cagle ends in criminal charges do you win your respective races.
Roy/Carol: You’re saying like one out of a hundred?
Jace: I’d say more like one out of a million.