Closing Out 2015, Trump Support Remains Strong

If you had asked the Peach Pundit editors at the beginning of the year who would be leading the Republican presidential candidate race in Georgia as its residents prepare to sing Auld Lang Syne to close out 2015, none of us would have guessed Donald Trump. After all, an Insider Advantage poll taken in early February had Jeb Bush in the lead with 22% of the vote, followed by Scott Walker at 17%, and Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee sharing 16% each. The Donald was way back at 2%.

How things have changed. Walker, of course, dropped out of the race. A mid-December poll by WSB TV has Bush at 4.8%, Carson at 6.7% and Huckabee barely registering at 1.9%. The leader, of course, is Donald Trump with 43% of the vote.

One potential reason why Trump is a popular candidate in the Peach State is put forth this morning by Nate Cohn, writing in an Upshot column for the New York Times. In it, Cohn says Trump’s biggest support comes from areas where Democrats vote Republican, and in a state like Georgia, where over the past 20 years, many Democrats–including some current Republican state legislators and even Georgia’s governor–have moved to the Republican Party.

Quoting Cohn’s story:

But during the Obama era, many of these voters have abandoned the Democrats. Many Democrats may now even identify as Republicans, or as independents who lean Republican, when asked by pollsters — a choice that means they’re included in a national Republican primary survey, whether they remain registered as Democrats or not.

Mr. Trump appears to hold his greatest strength among people like these — registered Democrats who identify as Republican leaners — with 43 percent of their support, according to the Civis data. Similarly, many of Mr. Trump’s best states are those with a long tradition of Democrats who vote Republican in presidential elections, like West Virginia.

Cohn is using data from a large nationwide survey to back up his conjecture. It’s not quite a poll. It eliminates people who are undecided about who they would vote for, and targets likely Republican voters in November. But, he does provide a breakdown of estimated Trump support by congressional district. Based on that analysis, Trump’s biggest base of support in the Peach Stare is in congressional districts 3, 9, and 11, represented by Lynn Westmoreland, Doug Collins, and Barry Loudermilk, with 39% support. Next is the Buddy Carter’s 1st district with 38%, Rob Woodall’s 7th District with 37%, Tom Price’s 6th District with 36%, Austin Scott’s 8th District with 35%, and Sanford Bishop’s 2nd District with 34%.

The 5th District, held by John Lewis and the 13th District, held by David Scott each have 33% of the estimated Trump vote. Rick Allen’s 12th District and Tom Graves’s 14th District have 32%, and the districts with the least Trump support at 30% belong to Hank Johnson’s 4th District and Jody Hice’s 10th District.

In the heat of the summer, there were predictions that Trump’s popularity would fade going into the new year. With the Iowa caucuses a month away and the SEC primary 61 days from today, Trump remains as strong as ever.

19 comments

  1. gcp says:

    Jebby is failing because he tied himself to his brother and would not let go. It took Jebby three days to answer a question concerning the Iraq war. He has several old Bushers on his team including Paul Wolfowitz. He insists his brother “kept us safe.” Many of his policies such as education and immigration are similar to George W. No one wants another George W thus no one wants Jebby.

    Now everyone can talk about Trumpet.

  2. seekingtounderstand says:

    Jon: There is one issue that would take Trump out for the majority of voters.
    The story line has not hit the press because the press know Trump is good for business. Got to have the Circus.
    After that story breaks, it will be Cruz and a female VP!

  3. seenbetrdayz says:

    Well now, this kind of throws a wrench in the whole ‘extremist right fringe supporting Trump’ blather that we see so much on here.

    Sounds like the ‘moderate left leaning’ is Trump’s backbone.

    The crow will be done in just a bit. If all the liberals on here will gather around the table we’re about to serve the meal.

  4. John Konop says:

    The rumor I read about is an alliance between Trump, and former Dem Sen.Jim Webb, no fan of Hillary. Trump and Webb are fairly close on trade, fiscally and military, minus the Trump posturing…..The Blue dog Webb is rumored to be very pissed how the DNC put the fix in for Hillary. If he endorsed, and or ran as an independent it would be big for Trump, not so good for Hillary…Or if he was promised a high level position like SS, VP….could make for some interesting TV..This would put places like Virginia, Ohio…..in play…

    • Salmo says:

      I would actually expect Webb would hurt Trump more than Hillary. Trump’s unfavorables among Republicans are much higher than Hillary’s among Democrats. There are a lot of “establishment” Republicans (for lack of a better term, unfortunately) who will refuse to vote for Trump but will still go to the polls on election day. For them, it would probably come down to a choice between abstention, the Libertarian, or Jim Webb (if he’s available). Webb probably lines up best with their philosophies, though admittedly everyone in that field would be a pretty bad fit.

        • Michael Silver says:

          What if Webb was Trump’s VP?

          The Beltway Republican’s brains would melt.

          Webb is more conservative than many Republicans and 3 times more conservative than the Republicans in Congress.

          • John Konop says:

            I agree, if Webb teams up with Trump it would change the race. The Dems deserve a major hit for how the party treated him. The DNC fixing the election for Hillary should of been a bigger story. The most bizarre part is Sanders is within 5 points of Hillary in Iowa and ahead in NH, yet it is reported that Hillary has already won…..The media has written off Trump so many times it would make your head spin. I am bias in that I do think Webb would be a very good president.No matter if you support Webb, Sanders, Trump…..all should be treated fairly in the party and media. Trump I do give credit for out smarting the party and the media. Early on they kept declaring Bush a winner in the debates, LOL…

      • Salmo says:

        The only reason I could see him doing it would be to spite Hillary; I suppose that is possible given that we saw Ross Perot do the exact same thing in 1992 to spite GHWB. From a philosophical standpoint, though, I can’t really see Webb getting on the Trump train.

        And, no, Jim Webb’s endorsement of Trump would in no way add any significant support from anti-Trump Republicans.

  5. benevolus says:

    I don’t buy it. This is T.E.A. Party run amok. The TEA Party may originally have been about Taxed Enough Already, but it seemed like it quickly became against everything that might be productive and only for general principles that are easy to say but hard to implement.

  6. northside101 says:

    The “W’ Era left conservatives with a bad taste—No Child Left Behind (which expanded the federal role in education) and even worse, the Medicare prescription drug program—first entitlement created by Republicans. Spending went through the roof, and not just because of 9-11. And then there was the Terry Schiavo fiasco in which Jeb sought federal intervention to keep a brain-damaged woman alive. No wonder that brand is not selling……

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