Trump Leading In Current Poll, For Real

WSB-TV commissioned a poll from Landmark/Rosetta Stone, and reported Friday that the New York billionaire is currently leading the pack among Georgia Republican Primary voters. You should notice two things: first that the poll was conducted AFTER Trump’s proposal to ban all Muslims from entering the United States, and second that I didn’t use the word “likely” to describe the voters that were polled.

I emailed Landmark President Mark Rountree and he confirmed that the universe of voters for this poll was people who had actually voted in a Republican Presidential primary at least once. Here’s a snapshot of the crosstabs:

LandmarkCrosstabs121015 Trump’s candidacy and sustained popularity in nearly every survey of any kind or type has befuddled so many pundits that some are now questioning the accuracy of the polls themselves. It’s important to note that polls are a picture of a snapshot in time, and don’t have to be predictive in order to be accurate. And as Nate Silver points out: “In general, there has been a strong correlation between how well a candidate is performing on the ballot test and how much media coverage he’s receiving, although the causality is hard to determine. Trump seems to understand this; indeed, he seems to issue his most controversial remarks and proposals precisely at moments of perceived vulnerability.”  In other words, it may not just that Republican voters are enthralled with Trump, it may be that they’re hearing 15 times more “news” about him, which drives his poll numbers up, which creates more “news,” which creates another rise in the poll.

But that doesn’t explain a straw poll in Oglethorpe County that showed similar results.

Trump celebrated the news on Twitter and Facebook, of course, as though the first caucus vote in Iowa isn’t still six weeks away.

Predictive? Manipulated? Accurate? Leave your take in the comments.

26 comments

  1. Feeling the Bern says:

    Trump is the best thing that has happened to America.

    Why? Because he has demonstrated what the GOP has denied for 30 years. The party, particularly those vast majority of voters who agree (75%+) with Trump’s Trashing of the Constitution with his religious test for entry are mostly made up of generally lower intelligent racists, rednecks and fear mongering Christians.

    I wonder how it makes the legislators in GA feel when they majority they represent are irrational and generally uneducated fearful whites? Are the GOP leaders a mirror reflection of their electorate?

    Donald Trump is playing you all for a chump. But in order to fool a chump, you have to chump the chump.

    Vote for Trump, Chump™

    • blakeage80 says:

      You’re bringing The Bern early this Monday morning.

      Is ‘Sad’ an option as a reaction to this poll?

  2. gcp says:

    Agree that Trumpet, the entertainer/prosperity preacher, is great at generating free publicity but will it translate to votes at the ballot box? I think not or maybe I should say probably not.

    If repubs want to win in Nov., Rubio/Christie would be the strongest team.

    • Lea Thrace says:

      I prefer Christie/Rubio with Christie at the top. He is about the only serious candidate with the GOP that I really like. I dont agree with some of his views. But holistically, I like him. I have issue with Rubio but they are mostly to do with the information out there about how he has handled his personal finances. It’s not a good indicator as far as I’m concerned. But it’s not a deal breaker for me if he gets on the ticket.

      Anyone else, and I’m out for the GOP side.

      • gcp says:

        I put Rubio on top because he has broader appeal and Christie fills what Rubio lacks. Those Rubio financial issues will fade as the silly “bridge gate” issue already faded for Christie.

      • northside101 says:

        Christie would not even carry his home state against Clinton. The Northeast (Maryland to Maine) is pretty much a dead zone for a GOP presidential candidate, except maybe New Hampshire which at best is politically marginal (but it has voted Democratic for president in 5 of the last 6 elections). So far this is not looking like the year (for current or former governors) in terms of the presidential process—Jindal and Perry have dropped out and Bush, Christie and Kasich look like they are on life support…

        • gcp says:

          Partially agree in that Christie would not help repubs in NY, Mass, Conn, Vermont but he could make repubs much more competitive in NH, Penn, Ohio, N J, Virginia, Maine. Meanwhile Rubio takes Fla., Colorado, all traditional repub states and perhaps they poach a Wisconsin, Michigan or Minnesota.

          • northside101 says:

            Democrats won their largest state legislative majorities in decades in New Jersey last fall…think we know who the governor is. A lot of people up there believe if he wants to run for president, he should resign as governor, instead of trying to do two jobs at the same time.

            Pennsylvania hasn’t voted Republican for president since the Berlin Wall was up (1988). It sometimes is close, but the Philadelphia area has trended heavily Democratic since the 1990s, with little population growth in the more Republican west of Philly. Obama won handily in New Jersey last time. Perhaps he would make some difference in New Hampshire, but hard to see a nomination path for him (especially on Super Tuesday).

            • Baker says:

              Except for this sourpuss northside101, I agree wholeheartedly with this thread. A Christie/Rubio ticket would be fantastic…not quite the Christie/Susana Martinez ticket I’m hoping for but not bad. A Rubio/Martinez ticket would also be fine. Christie/Rubio would be good but like it or not, demographics is a powerful force and I think we need a woman on the ticket. That woman is Susana Martinez.

              I would also LOVE it if after a year of ridiculous Trump-led spouting about Mexican immigrants, we ended up with a winning two-Hispanic heritages ticket.

              • northside101 says:

                Baker, sorry you don’t like it when “sourpass” presents some data. Like a Qunnipac University poll last month which shows that 61% of New Jersey voters believe Christie should drop out of the race. According to that poll, only 53% of New Jersey Republicans want him to stay in the race—and even Trump is trouncing him there. 55% of the state’s voters disapprove of the job he is doing as governor. Or heck, that Obama won New Jersey by a larger margin (647,000 votes) in 2012 than he did in 2008 (602,000 votes)—even though Obama’s national margin dropped substantially between the 2 elections, and even though a Northeast Republican (Romney) was at the top of the GOP ticket.

                Between 1992-2012, every state in the Northeast (Maryland to Maine) backed a Democratic presidential candidate, except New Hampshire (which narrowly backed Bush in 2000). Including DC, that is 112 electoral votes—over 40% of what is needed to win. Add reliably Democratic California (55 electoral votes), Illinois (20), Washington state (12) and Hawaii (4), easy to see how even Republicans can admit, Hillary probably has at least 200 electoral votes in the bag next year—no matter who Republicans put up.

                Thus the focus on both parties next year on Florida, Ohio, Virginia and perhaps North Carolina (Obama won 3 of the 4 last time and only lost North Carolina by 2 points last time).

                • Baker says:

                  I know all that. I still think he’s the best candidate. Home states always get jealous when their guy goes out on the road.

                  He communicates better than almost any of them and isn’t a weenie or a kid or a overly smarmy self-righteous car salesman. And I’m not trying to necessarily win New Jersey… I think he could do it in a head to head against Hillary but that’d be bonus. I just want a strong communicator who can talk off the cuff about why conservatism is better and has a record to back it up. He’s the only one who I think has all these things. I’d support others but that’s why he’s my man.

                  • northside101 says:

                    I can see your point….Republicans face a daunting challenge in the Electoral College, and apparently a lot of Cruz conservatives think McCain lost in 2008 and Romney in 2012 because they were “not conservative enough.” Or same for Dole nearly 20 years ago. But it is hard to see how Cruz would, for instance, run better in Virginia than did Romney last time. Northern Virginia (DC suburbs) have been moving toward the Democrats in presidential elections the last 25 years, and in the last 2 presidential elections basically provided Obama’s margin to win those crucial 13 electoral votes. I don’t see NOVA embracing a Bible-thumping candidate. Or central Florida (Orlando and Tampa/St. Pete area) several hundred miles to the south of Virginia. But perhaps it takes a Cruz nomination to verify whether the GOP lost in 1996, 2008 and 2012 because the nominee was “not conservative enough”—even amidst an electorate that is becoming more minority every presidential election.

  3. Dave Bearse says:

    Everyone keeps asking when Donald Trump is going to go away. Time and time again Trump remarks have led observers to conclude, “That was the final straw; he’s done now.”

    It turns out though that a campaign can survive a lot when its core supporters are racists, people who aren’t very smart, and racists who are not very smart. Larry Sabato says “[t]he Trump effect is now probably long-term, meaning that even if he falls by the wayside in the nomination contest, he will continue to be a factor.”

    The problem for the GOP establishment, and also the explanation for why Trump has yet to fade, is that knocking someone out of first place requires someone else to take that position. That would be uh…..Carson? Cruz? I predict Trump is in it in a big way until at least March, when the nature of campaigning shifts from TV remarks to campaign organization.

    • Will Durant says:

      “I predict Trump is in it in a big way until at least March…”

      And our brilliant GOP SoS Kemp thought he would make his bones by organizing the “SEC Primary” on March 1. Even if Trump has blown up by then it will give a boost to a candidate like Cruz who cannot win nationally in the General Election.

    • gcp says:

      “racists who are not very smart” I would say Trumpeteers are more ignorant than anything else.

      You defeat Trumpet by talking issues and specifics which is his weakness. While his website talks immigration and a few other issues it lacks any discussion of entitlements, government spending, health care, military, mideast policy… He needs to be challenged on these issues and others.

  4. Noway says:

    “lower intelligent racists, rednecks and fear mongering Christians.” Does it make you feel better to hurl insults? ‘Cause it doesn’t do much else. Keep doing it, it will just drive “them” to the polls in greater numbers. It’s like insulting your daughter’s boyfriend. By God, she’ll marry the loser just to spite Daddy. That Bitter Clinger’s vote counts just as much as the tenured college professor’s.

  5. benevolus says:

    OK, so here are some quotes from trump supporters, and my comments:

    “We can bring the women and children. But when the 20-year-old man comes, we oughta turn his (butt) around at the border” OK, as weird as that is, it really has nothing to do with what Trump said.

    “It’s just the idea the way he says it, that’s all. It comes out wrong. I think if he had time to explain it, I think he could.” It didn’t come out wrong! It was clear as day!

    “That’s what people want! They’re not going to say it, but that’s what they want.” They’re not going to say it because….? And, they want it because…?

    “How can we let these people in our country until we vet them properly? Who are “these people”?

    “He’s right, he’s absolutely right.” About banning all Muslims? OK, how do you even do that?

    “Under the circumstances, I think it’s a good idea.” What circumstances? The circumstances that the recent event was perpetrated by a US citizen born here and his wife?

    “The only way to defeat this is to kill them before they kill us. “ Kill who?

    http://news.yahoo.com/quotes-trump-supporters-muslim-proposal-084741385–election.html

    These people are not really thinking about what he saying or what they are saying. It is all emotional response. it doesn’t really mater what he says, they trust him from a gut level. I mean, why don’t we just say “let’s ban all terrorists”. It has about the same practicality and gets right to the point. But it’s too obvious that we can’t actually do that, so they just delude themselves into believing that this is the next best thing?

    I think most of these people are just hearing what they want to hear. They want us to do something about terrorists, and Trump says he’s going to do something about terrorists. The rest are just details to be worked out.

    It reminds me of that line in Animal House “I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part! “

    • Baker says:

      “These people are not really thinking about what he saying or what they are saying. It is all emotional response.”

      It’s all projection based on how much they hate the RNC and Washington. They’re misguided in that a bit as well, there is plenty to dislike about the way the national party has been led, but one problem at a time.

  6. John Konop says:

    Trump has proven no matter what says his supportes will follow him. If he wins, Trump will move toward the left, and with the polls so tight he could beat Hillary. I would bet he has a way better chance than Cruz….who cannot move out of his box via a real voting record. Trump advantage against Hillary is he can attack her voting record ie Iraq war, bank bail out, bad trade deals….she cannot counter….While Cruz would have to defend his voting record….it would be a tit for tat game…..with Cruz getting hit harder…..

    • benevolus says:

      I cannot imagine Trump getting the nomination, but if he did, I don’t think Hillary would have to do a thing. There are too many powerful entities that wouldn’t want a loose cannon like him with that much authority.

      Same might be true for Bernie at this time. His overall goal must be to establish his credibility and “reasonableness”. People see “socialist” and think all kinds of bizarre things, so he has to overcome that.

        • Dave Bearse says:

          “That was the final straw; he’s done now” doesn’t apply to Trump supporters and only few others, but it does apply to everyone else.

          Trump can move left all he wants—it’ll all be on film for those that haven’t yet paid much attention. The only thing Trump’s moving left after he were nominated would is further bury him in the general.

          It’s anecdotal, but my 80 year old lifelong heavily Republican leaning mother told me before a couple of days before San Bernandino occurred there’s no way she’d vote for Trump.

  7. Profit! says:

    At least GYR President Rob Lee has nailed Trump for who he really is. Glad someone is saying what needs to be said about this guy:

    Georgia Young Republicans Chair: Trump a fascist à la Mussolini
    December 12, 2015

    AROUND TOWN – TRUMP AND Il DUCE: “My dear God he is a FASCIST!!! In every single way, this man is a fascist,” Robert Lee of Vinings, chairman of the Georgia Young Republicans, wrote of GOP presidential frontrunner Donald Trump this week.

    Lee tells Around Town it isn’t one specific proposal that prompted that exclamation, but a pattern of rhetoric.

    http://mdjonline.com/view/full_story/27000251/article-Georgia-Young-Republicans-Chair–Trump-a-fascist-%C3%A0-la-Mussolini?instance=special+_coverage_right_column

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