It’s Donald Trump’s World And We’re All Just Living In It.

trumpNot only are Georgians searching for The Donald more that other GOP candidates, they actually want to vote for the guy. Remember, we’re months away from people actually voting, but Trump is showing more strength than most thought he’d have….ever.

A FOX 5/Morris News Poll Conducted by OpinionSavvy/InsiderAdvantage shows Trump with a solid lead ahead of Thursday’s first RNC sanctioned GOP debate and this week’s Red State Gathering in Atlanta.

Donald Trump: 30%
Jeb Bush: 17%
Ben Carson: 10%
Mike Huckabee: 7%
Ted Cruz: 6%
Scott Walker: 5%
Chris Christie: 3%
Carly Fiorina: 3%
John Kasich: 3%
Rand Paul: 3%
Marco Rubio: 3%
Bobby Jindal: 2%
Rick Perry: 2%
Lindsey Graham: 0%
George Pataki: 0%
Rick Santorum: 0%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 4%

Does Trump have staying power or will his renegade ways cause him to implode? Discuss in the comments.

23 comments

  1. My guess is Trump’s renegade ways will cause him to implode.

    Also, Trump has the most name ID of anyone in the race, which provides him a boost in polls in the early going. Ben Carson also has a lot of name ID. There’s a movie about his life out there and he has best selling books to his credit.

    • Lea Thrace says:

      See I think his renegade ways will keep pushing him UP the polls. The “base” is looking to latch on to anyone who says out loud what they are thinking. No matter how inflammatory or wrong those thoughts are. Now whether that “base” translates into actual votes, I am not sure. Lord I hope not. But one never knows.

      • elfiii says:

        Since when did speaking out bluntly about the failure of Congress to act to seal our borders and actually do something about illegal immigrants become “inflammatory” or “wrong”?

        • benevolus says:

          I think it’s more the “beating China” and “Mexico will pay for the wall” that seems inflammatory.
          Can’t wait to hear what he has to say about Putin.

    • Ellynn says:

      Jon help me out here, please. I don’t follow many poll samples. If I’m reading this right (which chances are I am not),There is 569 people in a weighted sample that is pre page 5 is 97% white. and 1 % for the other three race groups. That would be or 5-6 people for group. Is this a normal sample?

      • Chet Martin says:

        This is polling for a Republican primary, after all, so whites will be way over represented. The polling skews old, both because they’re Republicans and because those with landline are easier to poll, another reason the sample will be more melanin-deficient than the country. In a poll with a 500 or so sample, it’s pretty difficult to assess the opinions of proportionally small minorities.

      • Jon Richards says:

        Chet pretty much nails it. The margin of error in the overall poll is 4.1%, plus they weighted the poll numbers to reflect the 2012 primary stats, which will likely be different than those who vote in 2016 for a number of reasons.

        So what the poll really tells us is that with the exception of Trump, Bush and Carson, the rest are within the margin of error. And none of the crosstabbed subgroups (except for whites) percentages are going to be too accurate, because the margin of error on those is huge.

  2. benevolus says:

    I read an interesting article somewhere this morning that was saying we do have some history of electing outsiders: Jess Ventura, Arnold S., even Ronald Reagan, and I would add Al Franken. so maybe it depends on how mad people are.

    But in the end, I think that if he is still close, the big money guys- and I mean the bankers- would start the doomsday talk of economic collapse if he were elected. How many countries has he already insulted and it’s only been a few weeks? Who is going to want to deal with him, or lend us money? He says he beats China all the time, but as a businessman he is dealing from a position of independent wealth- he doesn’t need to make ANY deal he doesn’t like. That will not be the case as POTUS, and he will also have to get buy-in from a lot of other people, unlike a CEO.

    That is more than I EVER expected to write about Donald Trump in my whole lifetime.

  3. jh says:

    Jeb did terribly at Monday’s Voters First Presidential Forum in New Hampshire. Rubio did mediocre.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umhvoY0nX88
    Trump says incredulous things, like he’s going to win the black vote, but he never flinches. He doesn’t flinch when he says he wants to repeal obamacare, but still care for the poor. He’s coherent, even if he’s offensive, compared to mumbly Jeb.

    I think Trump is going to be in it for a long time.

  4. Raleigh says:

    Rep. Brockway I think your right and eventually Trump’s star will fade leaving the more traditional politician at the top. I just hope it’s not Jeb Bush even if he does have the biggest war chest. The thing Republicans have to worry about is will Trump follow through with his 3rd. party threat. If he does the next president will be a Democrat. The debate will be very important for Trump and the rest of the pack. Still the “kids table” as AJC’s Wingfield put it may have a big impact if they play it right. At least it will be interesting and there should be plenty to talk about next Monday.

    benevolus. I can agree with you about Ventura, Schwarzenegger and maybe Franken being outsiders but not Reagan. Reagan gave speeches for Goldwater back in 64 and governor from 67 through 75. He was definitely part of the Republican establishment.

    • I think the other Republicans at the debate Thursday need to ask Trump point blank: will you run as an independent if you don’t win the GOP nomination? If he refuses to say, or says he might run 3rd party, I think you’ll see his support begin to slip. Republican primary voters may not be happy with the direction of the party but not many want to hand the Presidency over to Clinton or Sanders.

      • John Konop says:

        In all due respect I do not think it matters if Trump said he would. His solid 20 to 30 percent of supporters are pissed off. It reminds of the movie Network, “mad as hell, and I am not taking it anymore”. They will at the end up voting for the GOP candidate if Trump does not run….but the independent question does not hurt Trump in my opinion, with his base supporters. What is helping Trump the most, is a large field of candidates, and he has sucked all the oxygen out of the race. Trump for now is bigger than the party via the media. TV/radio all about viewers/listeners…..As long as Trump drives the ratings, he will be captain of the ship.

        http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=made+as+hell+not+taking+it+anymore&FORM=VIRE2#view=detail&mid=5150F1761EEFD394A71F5150F1761EEFD394A71F

      • xdog says:

        “ask Trump point blank: will you run as an independent if you don’t win the GOP nomination?”

        He’s already said no to a third party run if the gop gives him a fair shake. Of course, he’s the sole judge of what he considers fair.

        I’d say grabbing a place with the big boys Thursday night is fair treatment.

  5. SallyForth says:

    Buzz, I think we’re experiencing deja vu all over again, as Yogi said. This feels like the 2007 herd of Democrats, and we all saw how that turned out. As the months go by, the pack will thin and we’ll see people like Christie pull up in the rankings. And as Raleigh says, who can forget the wrestler, Bonzo, the comedian, and the Terminator? Trump could fool the prognosticators too.

  6. notsplost says:

    I think Bush is in more trouble than is generally being portrayed in the media. Will Trump implode? Probably,but not necessarily, and the timing is unknown. Has he sucked all the oxygen out of the Cruz, Paul and Rubio campaigns, which were thought to be the main “Anybody but Jeb!” outfits? Sure he has.

    Bush looks like he’s pacing himself and getting ready for all that money to kick in, but once we actually start counting primary votes, he’s going to face some math problems.

    He’s still at 17%, granted the field is large and fractured. But to get to a majority he will need to at some point pull actual votes from the other candidates.

    Trump, Paul, Cruz and Rubio already have 42% of the vote. Arguably Fiorina and Carson are also the type of candidates whose supporters will find it a stretch to go from a fresh new face to a retread. I’ll be generous and say half of their supporters could hold their noses and vote for him (6.5% won’t, based on the poll numbers for Carly and Carson totaling 13%.)

    So that means Jeb to pull nearly all the votes from every other remaining candidate, the Perry’s, Walkers, Christie’s, and other semi-mainstream candidacies that will probably implode by Christmas or MLK day. Assuming of course that after the first few primaries it comes down to a face off: one main “ABB ( Anyone but Bush”) candidate and him.

    Keeping multiple ABB’s campaigns zombie-fied just long enough to allow him to take primaries without getting a majority of votes is of course his best bet and a viable scenario.

    Can he do it? Possibly. But I think it is going to be more difficult than the media think it is.

    And yes I’m probably over analyzing this.

  7. Trey A. says:

    I don’t agree with the popular comparison of Trump and Bernie Sanders. For one, Sanders is a serious person and a U.S. Senator. Trump is neither.

    However, I do think both Trump and Sanders are getting boosts in the polls because the frontrunners are presumed to be Clinton and Bush–and a lot of people are unhappy about that.

    Now, the question is: Why are Bernie and the Donald resonating while folks like Jim Webb, Martin O’Malley, Ted Cruz and Rand Paul are struggling? If anything, it was supposed to be someone like Sen. Paul getting the anti-Bush, angry-with-the-system bump. But he’s not–heck he’s not even doing as well as his dad did the last couple of cycles–which means his once promising campaign is in real trouble.

    Kasich is the only one of the bunch that really gets me excited, but he has a very slim chance of doing anything.

    He won’t win… But if the Donald does win the nomination, the GOP might as well take down the tent, close up shop and rename themselves the Whigs or the Federalists or something.

  8. Noway says:

    Repubs are pissed. They were let down by repubs in 10 and 14. Repub victors lied like Pinnochio and their voters are having no more of it. Trump wont win but at least hes giving lip service to their concerns. Another election of just lip service and lies will destroy the Repub party for the next generation. Take that prediction to the bank

    • MattMD says:

      Again, what are you talking about? We have divided government with the other branch holding the executive. What did you really think would happen?

      I swear, I think some of you would prefer dictators.

  9. Three Jack says:

    Trump – ‘a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma’ borrowing a line from Churchill about Russia.

    With establishment types like the idiot who stole Tim Russert’s white board idea opining in the WSJ like this – http://www.wsj.com/articles/which-donald-trump-will-debate-1438813416 – no wonder Trump is popular. Karl Rove is Trump’s best friend as the candidate continues to seek out pissed off GOPers who are tired of being bamboozled by lifelong politicians.

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