What Can Fundraising Data Tell Us About The HD24 Special Election?

A blog called “Local And Special Elections” has taken a look at the fundraising data reported thusfar in the special election for House district 24. The election of course takes place today.

The author matched donations over $100 with precincts within the district and within Forsyth in an attempt to a) gauge support each candidate has from people who can vote and b) predict what might happen today. He wisely decides not to predict the outcome since the sample size is very small. However, there is some interesting data in his post.

– The two vote-rich areas of HD 24 are likely to be precincts 10 (Midway) and 16 (Otwell), which comprise much of the middle of the district. The three candidates who received contributions from within the district (Gilligan, Underwood, and Van Sant) all received money from multiple individuals and businesses in Midway, so I would expect that the votes from there will be split.

– Surprisingly, only one campaign donation came from someone in Otwell precinct (to Gilligan). One data point isn’t much to base a strong conclusion on – the method would be better tested with more data. Perhaps this suggests that turnout in Otwell will be less than in the district as a whole.

– Precinct 29 (Polo) is likely to produce the third-most amount of votes. Here, Gilligan boasts more contributions than anyone (3), and she also received another from someone in the precinct, but just outside the HD 24 boundary. This suggests she should run very strong here.

– Underwood received the only contribution from an address in precinct 15 (Heardsville), which has almost as many voters as Polo. Based on the address provided on his registration documents, it is also his home area. I would expect him to finish first or second here.

The candidate with the most unique contributors (donating over $100) within HD24? Sheri Gilligan.