“There are only two types of predictions in politics, the ones that are lucky and the ones that are wrong.” -Mike Hassinger
We’ve all seen the polls and argued about the cross-tabs. We’ve all speculated about the accuracy of the various polling outfits. We’ve all argued about the percentage of African American turnout until we’re blue in the keyboards. Today, however, is the day when political trash-talkers have the opportunity to put up -or shut up.
This is the only post on Peach Pundit today. (This evening, we’ll post a live feed of 11 Alive’s livestream which will focus mostly on Georgia election results from 7pm to midnight. Follow along in the comments and watch the l
ucky expert analysis of our Editor in Chief Charlie Harper) You, our commenters, have the opportunity to call whatever races you you want, with as much specificity as you can muster. It’s time to cull professionals from cheerleaders. Are you a real professional with special insight? Tell us. Say so publicly, right here on Peach Pundit. We are all going on the record, and you have the opportunity to match your political predictive ability against that of our editors and our commenters. Do you have what it takes?
Hassinger, FOR THE RECORD: Deal/Carter. Deal wins, 51%. Perdue/Nunn: Runoff. All Republicans down-ticket win, except for Richard Woods for State School Superintendent, who should be appointed anyway.
Harper, “Look people, I honestly have no idea.” Deal and Perdue ultimately win. But my gut still tells me Perdue will need a runoff to get there. I think Deal can close the deal tomorrow night. John Barrow remains a Congressman, as well as one of the luckiest men alive. I agree with Mike that the School Super race is the only down ballot race that will be close. I don’t think enough people are paying attention, however, to keep Richard Woods from prevailing. I’m voting for Woods – Billy Woods – the officially registered write in candidate. Kay Hagan wins in NC. Jean Shaheen wins in NH. Media will try to spin that and late GA count to say Dems will hold the Senate. They’ll receive comfort in that until the R’s take Colorado – and ultimately the US Senate.
Brockway I’ll admit I’m an eternal optimist and thus through my Pachyderm colored glasses I’ll tell you what’s going to happen tonight: Deal and Perdue win without a runoff. Deal does better than Perdue so I’ll say Deal 52, Carter 45, Hunt 3. Perdue squeaks by 50.1 to Nunn’s 46, while Swafford pulls 3.9. I think Richard Woods is in trouble and may indeed lose, but it will be close either way – I know a number of pro-school choice Republicans who voted for Wilson assuming it will be easier to isolate her than Woods since both will fight any attempt to advance choice in education. Other down ballot races are wins for the GOP – a few might be closer than the Deal/Carter race. I think John Barrow survives because he always does, though it might be closer this time. No GOP State Senator falls though we may have a few upsets in the State House. Since they’re my colleagues I won’t name names but some Republicans will go down to the wire tonight and so will some Democrats. Ultimately I think the GOP prevails for several factors: 1) Yes, Obama is not on the ballot but his policies are. The President’s policies are always on the ballot and right now, this President’s policies aren’t popular. 2) The GOP has a stronger field of candidates this year, mostly because we have the power of incumbency on our side, and 3) While there are Republicans discontent with the GOP at every level, most of them prefer a squishy RINO to a Democrat any day of the week. So rest easy everyone, the Republicans will still be in charge for at least two more years.
Turkheimer: Nunn gets the most votes but is forced into a runoff with Perdue. If Nunn/Perdue is not for control of the Senate and the Republicans have the majority (and that will happen), Nunn will win the runoff. Deal finishes first at 49.7, Carter at 46 and change, and we get more free baseball/elections. Hecht comes up short in the AG race but is closest among non state school superintendent elections. The arc of the moral universe is long, but it bends toward justice. Whether it bends fast enough for Val will be a matter settled close to midnight. Democrats win New Hampshire and North Carolina, but by the time North Carolina is called the Senate is lost. Bruce Braley in Iowa loses narrowly, sealing the fate of the good guys. John Barrow survives yet again, this time with 50.8%.
Richards Despite the optimistic analysis of the latest polls, I think the Perdue/Nunn race goes into overtime, and that in the end, Perdue wins. Deal is really close to an outright win on Tuesday, but could still get in to a December runoff.
In the down ballot races, it’s GOP except for the State School Super’s race, where Valarie Wilson scrapes enough GOP votes to win. Here in Gwinnett County, Lynette Howard wins her Commission race. P.K. Martin cruises to victory in Don Balfour’s old seat, which is drawn to favor Republicans. In the House contested races, Joyce Chandler wins re-election in District 105, although not overwhelmingly. Other winners include Tom Rice in HD 85, Scott Holcomb in HD86 against Jim Duffie, and Buzz Brockway in HD 102. In House District 94, which includes precincts in DeKalb and Gwinnett, Brad Young squeaks out a narrow victory against incumbent Karen Bennett.