Sabato’s Crystal Ball’s Final Reading

Because our front page doesn’t have enough election-eve predictions.

Sabato’s Crystal Ball released their final predictions of the 2014 midterm landscape. Georgia switched from “toss-up” to “leans Republican” for both the US Senate and gubernatorial elections.

According to their prediction, Georgia’s Senate race might go to a runoff, though it is less likely than previously predicted. If the election goes into overtime, then David Perdue is considered the frontrunner.

We’ve been calling Georgia and Louisiana “Toss-up/Leans Runoff” in recent weeks because we expected both to eventually go to runoffs. Louisiana will, and Georgia might, but we now believe Republicans are favored to eventually win both. So we’re just going to call both LEANS REPUBLICAN going into Election Day: If both do in fact go to runoffs, then the Leans GOP ratings will apply, at least initially, to the overtime contests.

Governor Deal shares a similar outcome according to the prediction. Even if tomorrow night ushers in a runoff, Deal is the frontrunner.

In Georgia, Gov. Nathan Deal (R) seems more likely than state Sen. Jason Carter (D) to win on Election Day, though the race may well end up going to a Dec. 2 runoff. But even if it does, Deal will have a slight edge going into that second election. The incumbent is now favored to win, whether it’s tomorrow or December. LEANS REPUBLICAN

Finally, Sabato’s Crystal Ball peeked into Georgia’s 12 District. They predict Representative John Barrow will beat businessman Rick Allen.


  1. therightdirection says:

    I’m surprised no one has posted the results of Landmark’s final poll for Gov and Sen:

    David Perdue (R) 49.8% to Nunn (D) 45.6%.

    Nathan Deal (R) 50.8% to Carter (D) 44.5%.

    Perdue running a point behind Deal, or Carter running a point behind Nunn, whichever way you want to look at it.

    • Bobloblaw says:

      The internals of landmark’s final poll are pretty good. It looks like the senate races is 2008 all over. Deal has a decent chance to win outright c

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