Deal leads Jason Carter, 47% to 42%, with Andrew Hunt and undecided voters each at 5%. Deal leads every age group except millennials, where he trails by 15 points. Deal and Carter split the female vote, with 45% each, and among those who have already voted, Deal has 51% to Carter’s 45%. The Libertarian, Hunt only gets 3% of those already voting, another sign that libertarian leaning Republicans may be voting GOP in order to avoid runoffs. Acording to the polling memo issued by SurveyUSA,
[S]hould Deal win by 5 points, and/or should Libertarian Andrew Hunt be held to less than 5% of the vote, a runoff will be avoided, and Deal will win his next term tomorrow, 11/04/14. Should Deal win by fewer than 5 points and/or should Hunt get 5% or more of the vote, a January 2015 [sic — runoff date would be December 2nd] runoff will follow. A Carter win would be an enormous upset, given these poll results.
Things are a bit closer in the Senate race. There David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn 47%-44%. Amanda Swafford has 5% and undecided voters make up the final 4%. Roughly the same number of people in each age group support Perdue as support Deal. Similarly, support for the two GOP candidates is similar among whites and African Americans. The difference making the Senate race closer than the Governor’s race is women voters. In the Senate race, Nunn leads Perdue by six points. Is a runoff likely?
Were Perdue to win the seat by 3 percentage points, and were Libertarian Amanda Swafford to get less than 3% of the vote, a runoff would be avoided and Perdue would win the seat outright tomorrow, 11/04/14. Were Perdue to win the seat by less than 3 percentage points, and/or were Swafford to receive more than 3 percent of the vote, a January 2015 runoff would be required. Were Nunn to win the seat, and only a narrow Nunn win would be consistent with these results, that would be a significant upset.
In down ballot races, Casey Cagle leads Connie Stokes in the Lt. Governor race, 54% to 38%. Brian Kemp is ahead of Doreen Carter, 52% to 40%, and Sam Olens has 51% to Greg Hecht’s 39%. In the race for School Superintendent, Richard Woods holds a narrow lead over Valarie Wilson, 47% to 44%.
The poll of 591 adults was conducted from October 30th to November 2nd. The poll’s 4.1% margin of error keeps the Senate and State School Superintendent’s race tied within the margin of error. View the crosstabs here.