NBC/Marist: Perdue, Deal Lead, Both At 48%.

A new NBC/Marist poll shows Republicans David Perdue and Nathan Deal have 48% of the vote and based on the polls 3.3% margin of error could be closing in on the margin needed for victory.

Republican David Perdue captures 48 percent of likely voters in the new NBC/Marist poll, compared to Democrat Michelle Nunn’s 44 percent. Three percent goes to libertarian Amanda Swafford.

Like in Louisiana, the Georgia race goes to a runoff if no candidate reaches 50 percent. In a hypothetical head-to-head matchup between just Perdue and Nunn, the Republican leads 49 percent to 46 percent.

Both candidates are reasonably well-liked. Forty-seven percent have a favorable impression of Perdue, compared to 42 percent who have an unfavorable one; Nunn has a 49 percent favorable rating compared to 39 percent who view her negatively.

In the state’s closely-watched governor’s race, incumbent Republican Gov. Nathan Deal gets 48 percent, while Democratic challenger Jason Carter gets 43 percent. Libertarian Andrew Hunt snags three percent.

In a hypothetical runoff, Deal leads 50 percent to Carter’s 46 percent.

Poll questions here (pdf).

Discuss.

39 comments

  1. David C says:

    No crosstabs in the linked pdf, which makes it kind of worthless as a poll if they don’t tell us what electorate they have here in Georgia given getting that right’s the most important part of polling in the state.

  2. Bobloblaw says:

    I think too much is being paid to demographics by some people here. Deal and Perdue are going to win, though probably not get 50%

    • zedsmith says:

      Demographics is pretty much the only thing to talk about because party loyalists are pretty much baked in on both sides.

      • Will Durant says:

        Just as polarized and in many cases applying just as much logic as blue against red in Jacksonville yesterday. If the outcome is the same though for many it will bode for a bad day at Blackrock (Blackshear?).

    • John Konop says:

      Bob, What are you drinking scotch, beer , wine….? You think the increase in minority voting and the loss of female vote for GOP has nothing to do with it being this close…..Lol….Come on man….this should be a wipeout election for the GOP…In 16 the GOP better get it together or they will see massive losses….The Dems are defending 2 to 1 in senate in an off year election with an unpopular president. In 16 the GOP will defended more than a 2 to 1 ratio in the senate….with Hillary pulling out massive female vote and minorities increasing….GOP better kill the crazy talk in 16….it will be a knock out punch….The GOP better pray Johnny runs….it will be rough for the GOP if they run on crazy talk again….

      • Bobloblaw says:

        The reason it is close is the GOP candidates are bad and the Dem candidates are the best since Zell Miller ran for everything.

        If the GOP had nominated Cagle and Kingston, theyd be up by 10.

        • John Konop says:

          Cagle ran a way diferent campaign and has a real track record with achievement via education….Kingston does not have the track record issue via success….

            • John Konop says:

              That is the point….I keep hearing how Nunn is a strong candidate yet no one knows what she stands for…I think the GOP has about a 6 point advantage if they run a good candidate. It can swing either way via the message….Within the next few cycles that advantage goes away via demographics.

    • seenbetrdayz says:

      Agreed. Why not just count the number of black people and the number of white people and call it for one side or the other?

      But that’s census-taking, not polling. A lot of people here have the two confused.
      I won’t name names, but there are people whose first words off their fingertips when they see a poll result they don’t like are something along the lines of, “did they poll this color people or did they poll that gender people? A lot of those kinds of people might have satellite phones so how could they possibly have a good result if they’re using land-lines. blah blah blah.” I haven’t seen someone strain so hard since the morning after I ate 3 bowls of cheese dip at the Mexican restaurant.

    • debbie0040 says:

      I agree with Bobolaw. A few weeks ago, I thought Perdue would win without a runoff but the outsourcing issue has hurt him.

      I think there will be a runoff with Deal and Perdue winning the runoff. If Kingston or Handel were the nominee it would be a cake walk.

  3. This poll actually brings me some relief. I feel much better about Michelle going into the final voting day as an underdog. Being ahead in the polls breeds a feeling of safety. I’m glad to be able to push the “we need all hands on deck” message.

    I still feel really good about getting a 50+1 win on Tuesday.

    Go, Michelle, Go.

  4. CountPetofi says:

    “I, um, will differ to the President’s judgement on that…”
    Being played on an endless loop. Effective. Michelle’s done.

    • Meh…

      Those who crossed over to vote for Michelle would likely crossover no matter what. She’s just the better choice in this race.
      This endless loop helps her with her base.
      Those who are solely “anti-Obama” vs “pro-Progress” were not going to be persuaded to crossover no matter what.

      This Harry Reid-Obama mularkey? ..it isn’t really the shock-n-awe the GOP wants it to be.

      • TheEiger says:

        So because I think Obama has been a horrible leader and a horrible President I’m anti-progress? What does that even mean? I still for the life of me can’t understand how you can be such a big supporter of Handel and Pridemore and then support Nunn.

        • Bobloblaw says:

          “”I still for the life of me can’t understand how you can be such a big supporter of Handel and Pridemore and then support Nunn.””

          It’s all about the girls…I am hoping Bridgett sent some $$ to Joni Ernst and Terry Land.

          • therightdirection says:

            I think tying Nunn to Obama is very effective. Their may be some soft Republicans or conservative democrats who remember Nunn the father, and are open to a truly moderate Nunn. But when they hear she’ll likely support a liberal agenda 95% of the time, they stick with Perdue.

      • CountPetofi says:

        Methinks you’re whistling past the proverbial graveyard! If anyone’s base is helped by that ad, it’s Perdue’s. Turn out the lights…

      • Bobloblaw says:

        Problem is she cant win the Runoff. Between now and Jan three things happen.
        1. Obama Executive Amnesty-How does Michelle feel about that?
        2. Perez as AG-Would Michelle vote for him?
        3. LA Runoff in Dec will go GOP, dampening Dem and firing up GOP voters here in GA ( I am assuming GA voters will at least know the outcome in LA, maybe a big assumption).

  5. rosco says:

    quote: “This Harry Reid-Obama mularkey? ..it isn’t really the shock-n-awe the GOP wants it to be.”

    Why is it “mularkey” to mention Reid and Obama with Nunn? After all, if elected, Michelle Nunn will vote for Reid as majority leader, which is important. That is precisely the reason that I voted for Purdue. Reid has been a horrible majority leader and is an extremely unscrupulous individual, even by Washington standards. Purdue doesn’t excite me, but frankly the Republicans could have run a wooden fencepost for Senate and I would have voted Republican. Harry Reid is why Nunn is going to go down in flames, and richly deserving it at that.

    Speaking of unscrupulous, I voted for Carter for governor because like Harry Reid, Nathan Deal is a weasel. Unfortunately, I suspect that Deal will win. On the flip side, Republicans in this state may live to regret it. Between four more years of Deal’s cronyism and demographic changes, the GOP is going to take a beating in 2016 if they don’t turn things around.

    • therightdirection says:

      Deal’s four years so far have been a boon to some minorities. His criminal justice reforms are a model for the nation, and will benefit disproportionately minority citizens.

      • Dave Bearse says:

        The criminal justices reforms have been good, but they’re hardly models for the nation since it followed reforms by a number of states that occurred in the last decade.

  6. Bull Moose says:

    You know, MOST Republicans, not all, compromised their values and sold their souls in support of Nathan Deal’s re-election. I feel that they have erred on the wrong side of right and wrong. Jason is not only a better person, he is a better candidate for Governor.

    As for the Senate race, Michelle is the better candidate. I honestly don’t know why David Perdue doubled down on outsourcing, adopting the Ted Cruz position on legislating, or why he would turn back the clock on the advances made by the Affordable Care Act.

        • Bull Moose says:

          There are three things that happened that made me really just disgusted with the GAGOP and many elements of the GOP as a whole.

          1. After an 18 month battle with a glioblastoma multiforme brain tumor, my mom died on March 2, and I made the decision to take a break from politics at that time. The love that I once had for partisan politics seemed to go away almost overnight.

          2. I thought one of the most appealing aspects of the GOP was the element of reform with the goal of eliminating waste and corruption from government. People who serve in elected office with a servant’s heart do not seek to enrich themselves through their public service, and if they do, those are the types of people that we should vote out of office. To set those beliefs aside and support Nathan Deal for Governor, given all the evidence, is something that I could not do. I know many people who feel the same way, but yet somehow felt that partisanship was more important than honesty and integrity.

          3. Finally, I supported many of the elements of reform accomplished through the Affordable Care Act. As a cancer survivor, I was relieved that the ban on pre-existing conditions was finally eliminated and that I’d finally be able to purchase health insurance. Conservative Republicans became obsessed with repealing the law. The way that they went about trying to achieve this unrealistic goal was the final nail in the coffin for me. Shutting down the government and the sequester has had real negative consequences for our economy, our country, and many people that I know personally. It exposed a level of blind partisanship that is unhealthy and unproductive in terms of governing.

          Sorry for the long diatribe, but that should provide the proper context for my opinion.

          the GAGOP compromised on one of the most important planks by which I cast my vote and that is to eliminate waste and corruption in government.

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