Yet Another Poll Has Deal and Perdue in the Lead

Another poll on the Georgia Senate and Governor’s races is out, this time from Vox Populi, and it shows comfortable leads for Republicans Nathan Deal and David Perdue. But unlike the one from Monmouth University out earlier this week, the Vox Populi poll has more accurate likely percentages of African Americans and women.

The poll has Nathan Deal leading Jason Carter 49% to 42%, with 3% for Andrew Hunt and 7% unsure. In the Senate race, David Perdue has 48%, Michelle Nunn 43%, Amanda Swafford 3% and 6% unsure.

From the memo accompanying the results:

Both Republican candidates receive strong support among Independents, with Governor Deal winning Independents 51 to 38 and Perdue leading 51 to 41. Deal and Perdue are also leading with women voters. If the election were held today, women would vote for Nathan Deal by a margin of 46 to 42 and for David Perdue by a margin of 45 to 43.

“David Perdue appears to have opened a small lead outside of the margin of error,” said Vox Populi Spokeswoman Lisa Boothe. “Both Perdue and Deal owe their leads in part to their strength with Independents and female voters. However, both races remain close and there are a lot of undecided voters so the numbers could shift in the closing days.”

The poll’s toplines show the poll consisted of 29% African Americans, and 57% women. Both those numbers could easily fall within the expected range of outcomes in this election. What’s more interesting, though, is that the pollster’s sample had 29% of respondents as Democrats, 41% as Republicans, and 26% independent. If that’s correct, it would mean either that blacks are not as loyal to the Democratic party as one would expect, or that few Republicans and independents plan to pull a Democratic ticket on Tuesday.

The poll was taken on October 28th with 600 voters, and has a 4% margin of error. This is comparable to the most recent SurveyUSA poll, which found stronger support by women than what conventional wisdom dictates.

But again, the poll was sponsored by the Ending Spending Action Fund, the group that brought you this and this. It’s unlikely they would publish a poll in which their preferred candidate was not in the lead.

7 comments

  1. Bobloblaw says:

    So why would be Lib get 7% in the Govs race and 3% in the Sen race?

    The poll is likely correct as to who is in the lead, not sure about the margins.

  2. Black voters make up 36% of all female voters. Let’s assume, charitably, that this poll shows Nunn winning black females only 75-15. That means she would start with 27 and Perdue would start with 5.

    In order for Perdue to be leading 45-43 among all females, he would need to be winning non-black women voters 62-25.

    While that’s plausible in theory, remember that also includes hispanics, asians, mixed-race etc.

  3. Actually they seem to be the new version of Strategic Vision, who if you recall was making up poll results that always tried to shift the narrative into the Republican’s column (especially after favorable polls came out for the Democrats).

    So, if you want to see a polling outfit that shows Scott Brown winning, Ed Gillepsie pulling within 4 and Michelle Nunn floundering all in the same day…
    http://www.poppolling.com/

Comments are closed.