Allen Leads Barrow in #GA12 Poll

Landmark Communications is out with a new poll tonight that shows Republican Rick Allen with a slight lead over incumbent Democrat John Barrow. Topline results have Allen leading Barrow by 48.1% to 44.4%. Allen’s 3.7 point advantage is just slightly under the margin of error of 4.4%. Landmark polled 500 voters in the 12th to get the poll results.

The demographic makeup for this poll largely matches what Landmark forecasts for statewide races. The African American voting percentage is 32.8%, while women make up 54% of those polled. One wonders, however, about party affiliation. Based on what I see, Republicans make up 50.6% of the sample. Maybe that’s the 12th, but it seems too high to me.

16 comments

  1. Thanks for posting, Jon.

    For perspective, remember that GOP candidate Lee Anderson took 46% of the vote against Congressman Barrow in a presidential year (2012) in District 12, despite a campaign that was pretty universally criticized.

    Please note that we are not stating with this poll that any candidate will win or lose. No one is in a majority position in the race.

    There are some inherent advantages that John Barrow may still have, including the fact that undecided voters are more likely to be behaviorally Democratic. If these undecided (more Democratic) voters cast ballots, then Barrow could still carry the day. If Republicans vote in solid numbers as they are stating they will, they will carry.

    This particular poll is just a snapshot taken on Thursday night, Oct 30.

    A disclaimer: No candidate, organization, or any other entity commissioned this survey nor was involved with this survey in any way. This project was independently funded and conducted by Landmark. We are releasing it because there have been no known publicly released polls of this race.

  2. Bobloblaw says:

    I like john barrow. I don’t like how the congress has become a House of Commons in their voting discipline

  3. rpurvis says:

    It’s pretty spot on. GA-12 is a Republican +9 district that Romney carried with 55%. Kudos to Mark.

  4. rpurvis says:

    Pair that with the fact that the CofC has just bought 250k worth of advertising to saturate the waves even more—Barrow is seeing these same numbers, me thinks.

      • seenbetrdayz says:

        A-fk’ing-men.

        It’s gonna be a sad day of awakening for many people when election day passes and the AA & female vote don’t turn out to be the giant trump card waiting in the wings that some people hope they are. Some people are so hung up on demographics that they probably haven’t even factored things like policies or, well, let’s just say anything other than skin color or gender into their voting predictions.

    • Al Gray says:

      This area of Lincoln County would skew the poll toward Allen. His candidacy is a gift, however it goes. We die-hard fiscal conservatives and ethical government fanatics need a House icon to bookend with John Hardy Isakson. Rick is perfect.

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