A new shocking poll from Monmouth University Polling might have been the biggest news of the morning had the NCAA not released their ruling on Todd Gurley’s eligibility. The poll found David Perdue leading Michelle Nunn by 8 points, 49-41, with Governor Nathan Deal leading Senator Jason Carter by 6 points, 48-42.
However, diving into the polls’ sample will likely make Democrats breathe easier and Republicans not smile quite as wide. Responding to questions on Twitter, pollster Patrick Murray shared the racial makeup of his poll’s 436 person sample (the smallest used so far this cycle in Georgia): 25% African-American, dramatically lower than 2010 turnout and the 29-30% that most other polls are now using.
Emory’s Dr. Alan Abramowitz had some critiques, too.
When comparing the poll’s age sample to Georgia’s 2010 turnout, the contrast is very apparent. Seniors, which predominantly cast Republican ballots in Georgia, make up an especially high percent of the electorate, while younger voters are under-sampled.
If it turns out that the electorate has taken a sharp turn towards an older crowd than the 2010 GOP wave election, with depressed African-American turnout, Democrats are definitely in trouble. However, I don’t think anyone, regardless of political affiliation in Georgia, would be willing to wager on that.