More Early Voting Data

Two bits of information about early voting for your consideration.

First an analysis of Sunday’s voting by Landmark Communications, forwarded by Mark Rountree:

Eleven counties enabled early voting on Sunday October 26, 2014. Because these eleven counties generally have historically been more Democratic, many analysts assumed that this would create a large potential windfall of additional voters for Democratic candidates.

Once compiled, 12,708 voters were listed as having voted on Sunday.

Based on current polling conducted by Landmark Communications as well as based on election results from demographics groups in previous election, it is our analysis that Sunday voting resulted in approximately 5,500 net additional statewide votes for Democrats than Republicans.

However, many of these voters would have also likely voted on Tuesday, meaning that the large majority of these Democratic net votes are simply the result of “Robbing Peter to Pay Paul.”

Our conclusion is that, unless a statewide election is decided by around 1,000 votes, then Sunday voting will not have been decisive.

  # Votes % Votes
White 3,351 26.39%
Black 8,461 66.53%
Unknown 618 4.89%
Hispanic 111 0.88%
Other Race 84 0.66%
Asian 78 0.62%
Indian 5 0.04%

Georgia Early VotingSecond comes this cool map sent to us by Erick Erickson and produced by L2 VoterMapping.

Georgia Early Voting as of 10/28/14 – 412,807 (9.5% of Registered Voters)

  # Votes % Votes
Republican 197,711 47.9%
Non-Partisan 56,479 13.7%
Democrat 158,617 38.4%

Discuss.

40 comments

  1. BryanLong says:

    WSB-TV reported last night that “Early voting turnout could break records.”

    http://www.wsbtv.com/news/news/local/early-voting-turnout-could-break-records/nhtQ4/

    The top two issues for voters, as reported by WSB: education and jobs.

    The total turnout percentages for all ballots cast so far breaks down to 63% white, 31% African-American. This compares to 66% white, 29% African-American in 2010’s early voting.

    Men are 45% of voters so far and women are 55%, almost identical to 20210.

        • John Konop says:

          What would be interesting is the breakdown of the non partisan group from last election …that would be new registered voters (Dem gain) I guess if it grew ( minority voters) if he used prior voting data. Also every GOP vote lost is 2 votes not 1 for Carter….I would guess you could see the trend of women breaking away from the GOP or not….

          Hypothetically if the GOP lost 2 to 4 points via women from last time that is a 4 to 6 point swing…. Than they picked up a few points from the non partisan category we are a run off….like the polls are showing….

          • Scott65 says:

            New voters in 2010 is was 2.2% currently, it is 8.8%
            That data IS given by the SOS office, not party affiliation.

        • Scott65 says:

          That information is not available for general elections and since primaries are not partisan there is no way he could produce that data…

    • TheEiger says:

      You can cross the names of everyone who voted early (this list comes off of the SOS website and is updated daily) with the voter file for previous elections. If someone voted early and previously voted in a Republican primary you can assume they are Republicans. It takes someone with a staff and lots of number crunchers to do it, but that’s how its done.

      • Ellynn says:

        So people who vote Republican in primaries, since they only have republicans running for their local and state house/senate races but don’t vote a straight Republican ticket in the genral could realy screw up some ones world…

          • Trey A. says:

            Yeah, I don’t think the map says a whole lot. In most districts around the metro, the local races are decided in the primary, so just about everyone pulls the primary ballot where they can vote for school board, county commission, sheriff and the like.

        • TheEiger says:

          I’m not sure how they are calculating their numbers, but I would only use people that voted in two republican primaries. I’m sure that some of the 14% non-partisan are people that have voted in both republican and democrat primaries. It’s probably an insignificant number.

        • Scott65 says:

          …or people who vote in a Republican primary because there is no democratic opposition…so those numbers could be highly skewed

      • NoTeabagging says:

        Thanks Eiger. That makes Erikson’s chart void in a general election. There is no proof those votes went to a majority on the same party or straight party ticket in the general election. It can only show which primary voters, associated by primary party ballot preference, returned to vote.

          • NoTeabagging says:

            Then it needs a disclaimer. 🙂
            Votermapping.com needs a serious opt-out for citizens wanting do-not-call, do-not-solicit, leave-me-the hell-alone from politicians.

            I assume the website sets their data from SOS. the GA SOS clearly states such data is not to be used for commercial purposes. Votermapping.com, and basically every political consulting firm, does compile and sell this data, for commercial purpose. They know the SOS will not enforce the law.

            • NoTeabagging says:

              from the SOS site, “Voter registration lists and files are available to the public. The files contain the following information: voter name, residence address, mailing address if different, race, gender, registration date and last voting date. Pricing is set by the Secretary of State. Such data may not be used by any person for commercial purposes. (O.C.G.A. §21-2-225c)”

  2. By close of business Sunday, and by comparable days (early voting and absentee ballots turned in at end of early voting but not including the final week of advance voting):

    2014 So far – as of Sunday Night (includes Sunday)
    Absentee
    32.3% Black
    63.3% White

    2012
    Absentee ballots
    33.5 Black
    60.5 White

    2010
    Absentee ballots
    29.2 Black
    67 White

  3. Of the people who voted in person on Sunday — this is Sunday voting alone, isolated: below is a pretty accurate sketch:

    835 did not vote in 2012, 2013 or 2014. The rest (just under 12,000) did.

    I think to becomes pretty clear that Sunday voting resulted in very few new voters in 2014: approximately 93 percent of voters historically already have shown they will vote anyway based on their vote histories.

    THE ACTIVATED VOTERS:

    835 are identified as having not voted in 2012, 2013 or 2014.

    Of these, 337 voters are identified as African American, 40 Hispanic, 170 White, 10 Asian.

    219 could not be linked to a racial designation code (due to some newer voters not listing their race, or differences in construction of the voter database).

    Due to the limited amount of time to organize operations in 2014, Sunday voting won’t have a big impact on the likely outcome — unless there is a statewide race that is won or lost (or driven to a runoff) by a margin of just a few hundred votes.

    However in future years, when there is more time to organize around a Sunday vote project, it could have a more significant impact.

    To give proper credit, Mike Seigle, our data manager, researched these numbers in order to make public to you all.

  4. Bobloblaw says:

    Be careful about interpreting Early Voting numbers and any comparisons to 2010. GA didnt have a competitive race at any level in 2010.

      • Bobloblaw says:

        Nate Silver covered this pretty well. People are all excited about early voting numbers in IA and LA. But so what? They have competitive races versus 4 years ago. Meanwhile OH and NV have had a near plunge in early voting. Why? Kaisch and Sandoval are up 30 and there is no Senate race, unlike 4 years ago.

        FL early voting might be worth a look at as well as CO. But most states that have close races in 2014, didnt in 2010 and vice versa. So early voting comparisons to 4 years ago are worthless in most states.

  5. Interesting map. I see things.

    I see North Georgia getting somewhat purpley and when I look around my area, I see a lot more boomers than I do churchfolk. I know what churchfolk look like here locally. They have their own TV channel (thanks ETC!). So yeah, purple.

    The blue splotches in NW GA is the predictable backlash from Mr. Outsource. That kind of talk is darn near sinful in manufacturing areas.

    Also interesting is the blue belt dividing GA from top to bottom. That is an eye opener.

    Saddest thing is the red/blue division in every significant area of population. In each area is a distinct dividing line between us/them. Atlanta metro is especially sad.

    It looks like a Civil War Map and we all know how it turned out for the Red side. ;-/

  6. Scott65 says:

    I dont think L2 would be very happy with Erick sharing their data since (if you look at their site) they are clearly SELLING this data, and not giving it away. That said, the fact that the SOS does not break any data down by party affiliation tells me this is not going to be very accurate.

  7. NoTeabagging says:

    GA SOS site, “Voter registration lists and files are available to the public. The files contain the following information: voter name, residence address, mailing address if different, race, gender, registration date and last voting date. Pricing is set by the Secretary of State. Such data may not be used by any person for commercial purposes. (O.C.G.A. §21-2-225c)”

  8. debbie0040 says:

    In early voting, not sure how someone can draw the conclusion which percent is Republican and Democrat. Not all GOP Primary voters may be voting for all Republican nominees in the general and the same with the Democrats. There are some Republicans not happy with the choices at the top and some Democrats not happy with Michelle Nunn. I know some Democrats were urging write-in votes for the U.S. Senate as a protest of Nunn. Some Republicans may be voting Libertarian for some offices.

    That is a big unknown factor.

    The only poll that really matters is when the votes are actually tabulated…

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