Really Bad Numbers for Nunn in Latest SurveyUSA Poll; Carter Holding Steady

If you’re Michelle Nunn, reading the latest results from SurveyUSA were sure to leave you nervous. 

She’s lost five points to David Perdue, who now leads 48% to 45%.

Worst of all–Perdue’s shaved 11 points off Nunn’s lead with women and he now trails by a mere two-point margin. Granted this is one poll and there’s a ton of much smarter poll watchers than me (literally anyone else) but I just don’t see how she can win if she has virtually no lead among women.

Perude also has a 10-point advantage with early voters, according to the survey.

Oh, and to top things off, Perdue has solidified the GOP vote.

Deal and Carter remain at 46% and 44% respectively, with the Governor having a nine-point lead with early voters.

Going down the ballot, there’s little optimism for Democrats.

The Republicans lead by five in the AG and State School Superintendent race and nine and 11 points for Lite Gov and SoS respectively.

Agriculture, Insurance and Labor commissioners races  were not polled.

You know you want to dissect every little piece of info in the poll. You know you want to do it in the comments.

28 comments

  1. Here are the two major differences in the Survey USA poll from last week to this week.
    Black vote: Last week, 86-8, this week 80-15. That accounts for roughly -2 for Nunn and +2 for Perdue.

    Here’s why that might have changed:
    Voters who weren’t reached on landline (they took a poll on their smartphone or tablet).
    Last week: 54-32 Nunn. This week: 41-45.

    So – if you believe the black vote has swung 15 points to Perdue the same week that Obama endorsed Nunn and the Republicans spent more money than ever before linking her to the President, then you will like this poll!

    If you think, like me, that there’s something wrong with your methodology when your non-landline respondents are more Republican leaning than your landline respondents, then that explains it.

    • John Konop says:

      From a logic stand point all valid points. Once again I am lost with the strategy from Perdue brain trust. The polls are clear people want Obamacare fixed not eliminated….How does ripping Obamacare help Perdue with undecided, when he already has the repeal vote on Obamacare? Not getting it….He had so many other ways of increasing soccer mom vote….ie anti No Child Left Behind, pro job ideas, pro educational options…..tone death brain trust for general election…..

    • TheEiger says:

      At some point you are going to have to stop poking holes in everyone poll that you don’t want to believe, and say Perdue is in the lead and this is all going to come down to turning out the vote on Tuesday. Do you think that the horrible ads about Ferguson that were sent out turned off some black voters? I would think so.

      • Three Jack says:

        John,

        Did you miss this part of the story – “Perdue’s shaved 11 points off Nunn’s lead with women and he now trails by a mere two-point margin” – seems whatever he is doing is working with women.

      • John Konop says:

        I would guess not….but hey I am white…..not buying a big swing in minority and women votes until the GOP gets it together on some issues…..I thought the trend was way to aggressive at first…..but looking at the numbers it seems it is what it is…but hey it really does not matter in the long term anyways….the trend is the trend….the real issue is how will the GOP deal with it…

      • Bobloblaw says:

        I agree I dont do that. I do look at the internals and unless they are way way off, I will usually accept the results.

        I do think that the Nunn ads on outsourcing worked, but there was a ceiling on how much support they would shift her way.

        This is going to a runoff either way. Problem for Nunn in the runoff isnt just the GOP historical advantage, it is Obama’s behavior after the election. Will Nunn support Perez for AG? Will Nunn support Executive Amnesty? Those two issues if they go the wrong way could turn a 2-3 point Nunn win the in General Election into a 10 point loss in Jan. Also LA runoff will matter as well. If Cassidy wins (which he is likely to) and that shifts the Senate to the GOP, it will deeply depress Dem turnout for Nunn in Jan (of course her voters might not even know about the LA runoff or who controls the Senate). The Gov runoff could matter too. If one party wins the Gov runoff, I think it helps that party going in to Jan.

    • TheEiger says:

      “So – if you believe the black vote has swung 15 points to Perdue the same week that Obama endorsed Nunn and the Republicans spent more money than ever before linking her to the President, then you will like this poll!”

      Or it could be as simple as some people just don’t think the President has been a good leader, including African Americans. Here is a great video from Obama’s home town of Chicago.

        • TheEiger says:

          Nope, not going to take that bet. I already have a haiku coming my way. I don’t need your $100. I’m just saying that not everyone that is black is happy with the President. And you shouldn’t assume that they will continue to support him and Democrats in the same high percentages as they have in the past.

          • Mercy. This haiku (regardless of author) will be pretty damn satisfying for one of us – more than $100 worth I’d say.

            Who bets with cash instead of human shame and dominance, Huttman??

          • I’m willing to grant you that not all black voters are wild about Obama. But you believe it has swung 15 points towards Perdue in a week and yet white voters stayed at about the same place?

            So there is a big Republican swing going on but only in the black community?

            • TheEiger says:

              15 points seems a bit much. Half of that? Sure. You still haven’t said anything about Perdue going from 13 down amongst women and now only 2 down. I guess that’s wrong as well.

                • TheEiger says:

                  What are you going to do when Roundtree comes out with his next poll this week that shows Perdue in the lead? His polls have shown Perdue down and then slowly closing the gap. His next one will probably show what this poll is showing. First you all complain about not enough women being polled. This one is 52%. Then you all complain about the black vote is too low. This one is 31%. What is the next problem? You sound exactly like I did in 2012. Trying to explain every poll that didn’t show Romney winning. I was wrong then and I think you are now.

  2. jh says:

    Hyperbolic headline aside, it’s a good poll for Nunn in the crosstabs. She’s consistently getting 28-29% of the white vote, and she can get more from the undecided (needs 30%).

    And if black turnout is as high as SurveyUSA says (and as early voting continues to show), Nunn is going to win.

    • JayJacket says:

      That’s a good example of a reverse ecological fallacy. Invalid macro inferences drawn from micro data. A poll that has Nunn down 3 and losing support (as compared to last poll) among key groups is not a good poll.

      • No actually the only thing Survey USA excels at is robo polling and their landline sample went from Perdue +5 to +3. What they don’t excel at is getting additional completes from respondents that are difficult to reach via cell phone. Most pollsters that attempt to reach cell populations make additional more expensive calls to cells. SUSA uses cell and tablet online surveys. In Georgia this population that can’t be reached by landline is younger and blacker. Yet the susa poll shows these respondents who make up 29% of the poll going from Nunn +18 to Perdue +4 in a week. Now seeing as everything else in the poll that was conducted via landline stayed remarkably similar one would have to conclude that’s a junk sample. And hence the giant swing in the black vote. They should have spiked the results. Alas news orgs can’t afford to do that anymore.

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