Voters Expect Perdue And Deal To Win.

The New York Times Upshot blog has an interesting article today. Among the questions in the latest round of YouGov online polling, respondents were asked which candidate they expect to win in addition to how they will cast their vote. Asking voters which candidate they expect to win often yields more accurate results:

Over the last 60 years, it has been a better guide to the outcome of presidential races than questions on whom people planned to vote for, according to a 2012 study by Justin Wolfers of the University of Michigan and David Rothschild of Microsoft Research. (Mr. Wolfers has since become a contributor to The New York Times.) The expectation question pointed to the winner in 81 percent of states between 1952 and 2008. The question about voting intentions pointed to the winner in 69 percent.

Asking about expectations, Mr. Rothschild said, allows pollsters effectively to interview “not just the respondents, but a random selection of their social network.”

You can see the full results of their Georgia poll here, beginning on page 73.

The Georgia Senate and Governor race results are as follows:

Q8: Which candidate will you vote for in the election for U.S. Senator from Georgia?
Michelle Nunn 43%
David Perdue 43%
Amanda Swafford 1%
Other 0%
Not sure 8%
Lean Democratic 1%
Lean Republican 3%

Q9: Regardless of how you are voting, which candidate do you think is most likely to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Georgia in November?
Michelle Nunn 35%
David Perdue 49%
Amanda Swafford 0%
Not sure 16%

A 14 point expectation advantage for Perdue.

Q11: Which candidate will you vote for in the election for Governor in Georgia?
Jason Carter 41%
Nathan Deal 43%
Andrew Hunt 2%
Other 0%
Not sure 8%
Lean Democratic 2%
Lean Republican 3%

Q12: Regardless of how you are voting, which candidate do you think is most likely to be elected as Governor in Georgia in November?
Jason Carter 27%
Nathan Deal 55%
Andrew Hunt 1%
Not sure 17%

A whopping 28 point expectation advantage for Deal.

Using voters’ expectations, the GOP will wind up with a Senate Majority of 52 or 53 seats, which falls in line with other predictions.

Give us your thoughts on this in the comments.

30 comments

  1. John Konop says:

    The Deal campaign has done a better job than the Perdue campaign shifting message…..The numbers show it….I still think no matter what this is a runoff campaign now via poor decisions by both candidates brain trust…..If the Perdue campaign does not get it together they could even screw up the run off. The Perdue campaign ran an excellent primary campaign….I was amazed by their savvy…..But general election they ran the worse campaign I have ever seen in Georgia….Not sure they understood when the primary stopped, and the general started? BTW Charlie Harper and Mark Rountree only sent them numerous PUBLIC warnings on the PP….The sign of insanity is repeating the same process over and over again, and expecting a different result.

    • Three Jack says:

      Perdue’s team of former TSPLOST promoters have indeed run a poor campaign. But in comparison to the equally bad campaign of Nunn, they managed to stay even and will likely have a mulligan going forward to the runoff. Neither campaign with the millions spent should be a model for future candidates.

      • You have to be smoking crack to think Nunn has run a bad campaign. May I point you in the direction of Democratic candidates in places like Colorado and Iowa who will probably lose?

        • Bobloblaw says:

          Nunn has done a better job than I expected. Carter, while not awful, has fallen short of my expectations. Just first looking him, he seems like a good guy and the impresson is he’d make a good gov.

          Id walk across glass to vote against Nnn, not just to keep Reid away from the majority but to pad the lead for the GOP going into 2016, so they dont end up at 40 seats. If Carter won, Id be “Meh”

          BTW, The struggling GOP govs in 2014, shows the GOP senate will have massive losses in 2016. The 2014 GOP govs were elected in 2010. WI, MI, GA, FL, KS, PA, ME all struggling. This is an indication that the GOP could lose a bunch of senate seats in 2016. Plus I am expecting IA and AZ to have retirements in 2016. Then look to 2018, the GOP looks good on paper but only MO is likely GOP. ND and IN arent, ND is a retail politics state and Joe Donnelly is very quiet.

        • TheEiger says:

          I’m with Chris on this one. I still think it’s going to be tough for her to win outright next week, but she has run a great campaign. Perdue, not so much. If it goes to a runoff Perdue wins. Nunn’s only chance is to win next week and she has put herself in a position to possibly make it happen.

          • John Konop says:

            I agree…..good campaign via strategy by Nunn camp….via any idea of her positions on issues is terrible for a anyone who wants to understand policy pre a vote….But that is obviously the minority of people….which is why running for office is not my cup of tea….It is style over substance…

            • benevolus says:

              I disagree. Many, if not most, issues are too complex or nuanced to explain in a campaign environment, and by definition are hypothetical anyway. Even if you want to stake out a firm position on an issue, that doesn’t really show how you would vote on a particular bill.

              All we should really expect to get from candidates is a good feel for their relative positions to each other because that’s the only choice we have anyway. I submit that anything more specific than that is pretty useless posturing.

    • Bobloblaw says:

      The reason is most people dont looks at polls. The Dems in GA have done disasterously since 2002, so people expect more of the same, not seeing an inflection point. I am sure in 2006, the vast vast majority of VA voters expected George Allen to easily beat Jim Webb.

      Just a note, those polls show too little support for the Libertarians. 1-2%. My guess is 3-5%.

      • I agree, i think this might be one instance where the “50%” rule still applies. What would people have thought Deal/Perdue chances were 1 year ago – my guess is probably near 70% or higher.

        • TheEiger says:

          75%. I though Deal would have to go to jail in order to lose. I was wrong. I do think that Nunn has a better shot than Carter. At the end of the day, I think Deal wins outright and the Senate race goes to a runoff which Perdue wins.

    • benevolus says:

      “The sign of insanity is repeating the same process over and over again, and expecting a different result.”

      Misquoting piece of folk “wisdom” does nothing to support a point.

  2. An interesting comparison would be what percentages usually think Republicans will win. Would guess it is much higher. A lot of people clearly thinking well I’m voting for the D, but I bet my neighbors aren’t. They might be surprised.

    • It would also be interesting to know if there is an expectation gap that almost guarantees victory. If voter expectation is 81% accurate, can a cutoff point be developed that increases or decreases that accuracy. For example, in North Carolina, Hagan sits a +5 and Gardner in Colorado at +3. Those are pretty close – so close that I don’t know you can be more confident than with traditional polling. On the other hand, McConnell in KY is +31 and Peters in MI is +30.

      • I think the “Who will win” #s definitely seem to trend down a slippery slope, the same way that when Nate Silver says Peters has a 99% chance of winning he just means he’ll probably end up with 51%.

        I also wonder if the 50% rule may apply to favorites. In other words, Perdue and especially Deal are the favorites without knowing anything else about these races (no one thinks a Democrat can win Georgia certainly not many of the people running Republican campaigns). So my guess is that there is a bias in favor of the “favorite”, and that the 50% rule may apply to these numbers.

        Does that make sense?

        • Exactly.

          We should take a look at this after next Tuesday to see a) how accurate the voter’s perceptions were and b) if there is any discernible pattern that can be seen.

          It’s just one poll but that would be interesting.

          That would be a real #nerdprom.

  3. MattMD says:

    It is amazing to me that this many people would vote for an obvious crook like Deal. His stunt with his salvage yard would get the average Joe in prison. Chris Riley is just as bad.

    Is it because people are generally just this ignorant and read only media which supports their preconceived notions?

  4. rightofcenter says:

    What specifically is he alleged to have done that should have landed him in prison? Considering the US Justice Department has been under control of the opposing party for the last 6 years, it must not have been too obvious.

    • MattMD says:

      Don’t get me started. First off, he used campaign funds to enrich a subsidiary of Gainsville Salvage Disposal (who Deal co-owned). The sleaze also served as an officer for GSD and sitting congressman are not supposed to earn more than an X amount (30K?) in outside income.

      Then there was that stunt he pulled by walking into the State Department of Revenue with his do-boy Riley to stop the state from privatizing the role of mandatory title inspections. This was one thing Nathan wanted to keep a “Deal” with since it benefited him financially, since he was such an idiot businessman with Wilder Outdoors. Deal was broke as a joke when he came into office. This clown sunk 2M into a retail outdoors retail establishment. He would have been much better off putting it into a Zaxby’s or four. Retail is worse than the restaurant business and QSR’s are generally profitable, FTR.

      I’m sorry to get so heated guys but I just can’t stand Deal. He is a crooked politician and we deserve better. It really speaks to lack of leadership of this state that some no-name Congressman from the hinterlands (sorry NW) can get elected governor in the first place.

  5. Cowabunga says:

    I’m amazed with Georgia Republicans. They must be either total fools or totally drunk with their power. How can they actually line up behind a man who operates in manner that is completely unethical. Then, the shenanigans Deal pulled at the ethics commission show he has little value for human dignity. To trash good people simply because they got close to his corruption. … He’s an evil man.

    • MattMD says:

      Well, you have to remember, I have driven though counties with Jody Hice signs and that guy is either a straight up moron or some attention seeker like Michael Savage (who is at least entertaining).

      I don’t think Deal is “evil”, however, he is just your common, run of the mill dirtbag.

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