Dueling Early Voting Data

I’ve mentioned before the website www.electproject.org, run by an Associate Professor at University of Florida who has been tracking absentee and advanced in person voting around the country. He has a spreadsheet with the data he and his team have collected which you can look at here. The most recent data for Georgia (through Friday the 24th) is as follows:

Ballots returned to date: 383,801

Race
White 62.3%
Black 28.3%
Hispanic 0.4%
Other 0.8%
New Reg (Unknown) 8.2%

Late Friday night, Jim Galloway posted this from Mark Rountree:

Mark Rountree, the Republican-oriented pollster behind Landmark Communications, sends word this evening that early voting among African-Americans in Georgia is outpacing 2010, a legitimate reason for GOP worry.

According to Rountree, who was behind today’s poll released by Channel 2 Action News, noted that, of the 307,703 voters who have cast early ballots, 30 percent are African-American. Sixty-six percent are white.

In 2010, at the same time – when the early voting period was significantly larger – 26 percent of the 253,999 who had voted were African-American. Seventy-two percent were white.

As you see, we have some discrepancies here. Rountree’s data, if I’m not mistaken is as of last Thursday and as I read it and is data from early voting, by which I assume he means advanced in person voting. That would not include absentee ballots received thus far by mail. The electproject.org data is as of Friday and includes absentee ballots received. That could explain the differences in total votes cast and the differences in the demographic make up of the votes cast to date. Of course, none of this data includes the Sunday voting Jon wrote about.

So what does all this mean? Are Democrats poised for victory? Will the GOP survive, or are we headed for runoffs in the Senate and Governor’s race?

26 comments

  1. John Konop says:

    Both are not a good trend for GOP:

    If the base line is 26% for AA in 2010…….than the new baseline for early voting is either 28% or 30%…..That means by next cycle at this trend rate THE GOP has a real issue with the same message on certain issues….BTW if Mark Rountree (new data king 😉 ) is right….this could even effect the run-off chances….

    • Bobloblaw says:

      yup, the only thing keeping minorities from flocking to the GOP, is the GOP’s opposition to Common Core.

      • John Konop says:

        I have never met this guy but sounds like what many of us have been saying for years on the PP….

        READ LEARN:

        http://www.examiner.com/article/solving-the-gop-s-minority-and-millennial-problem

        …………Guilt by association is real. Conservatives should temper their enthusiasm for defense of people like George Zimmerman and Darren Wilson. Springing to the defense of alleged murderers, especially before all the facts are known, is just as wrong as calling for their heads. Conservatives should also distance themselves from racists such as Cliven Bundy and Donald Sterling. These people have the freedom to spout racist nonsense, but they don’t have the freedom to duck the consequences.

        Conservatives should also refrain from pointing out that Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson and the other race baiters are the real racists. It’s obvious, but also irrelevant, that there is a double standard.

        The biggest stumbling block for Hispanics is immigration. The Tea Party fringe that insists on deportation and no “amnesty,” by which they mean any immigration reform, seems bent on driving Latinos permanently into the Democratic camp. These opponents of “amnesty” claim not to the see the problems in the current system in which businesses and farms depend on immigrant labor, but under which legal immigration can take decades……..

  2. Thanks Buzz, for posting. The numbers provided by us at Landmark include both early and absentee ballot voters.

    Per your request, here comes Geekfest 2014:

    The discrepancy between the two published reports on early voting may come from the word “voters.” Our numbers include actual ballots cast, not absentee ballots requested. We constructed our report this way on purpose because many people fill out applications to request ballots, but don’t actually turn them in to cast them.

    The biggest difference may be in the quality of the designation for race on the Georgia voter file. We (meaning Landmark) likely have a more accurate designation for more people. The state no longer requires this designation when registering to vote, of course. This is why his “unknown race” is significantly higher than ours: his report acknowledged more than 8% unknown while ours is 3% unknown.

    How will this affect the final general election results? Likely just a little.

    Comparing “apples to apples” for comparable dates on the calendar for 2010 vs. 2012:

    The African American percentage of the early vote is 30.49%+, up from 25.35% in 2010. However, it’s down from 33.48% in 2012 — and in both years Republican candidates at or near the top of the ticket carried the state with 53% of the vote.

    What’s also significantly different in the demographics between the two election years is the percentage of early/absentee voting white voters: the number was 71.49% of early/absentee ballot voters on the comparable-day in 2010, but is down to 66.19% today.

    (Note that none of the numbers above include yesterday’s Sunday voting or the final week of advance voting, just early voting and absentee ballots cast)

    • Sequel to Geekfest 2014: I also just noticed that that the copy/pasted report you listed above says there are 307,078 early voters.

      That was the number as of Thursday night (which is our number reported by the AJC). However, with Friday included the number had grown to 372,078 early and absentee ballot voters (votes cast). The number had evolved as more people voted.

      It appears that we are referring to different dates and times of released information.

      • Correct. In the post I noted your numbers, as reported by Galloway, were as of Thursday and electproject’s were through Friday.

        I’m glad to see the gap between the two reports closing considerably. Dr. McDonald is gathering this data from across the country so I don’t expect his team to dig into it as deeply as Landmark can.

        It’s good to have two teams looking at this data, it improves the usefulness for everyone.

  3. FranInAtlanta says:

    Betting on a runoff for both Senate and Governor. National Press acting as though we have been red for years. In current times, no Republican governor until 2002 and Dem senator as late as 2004.

  4. I early voted today, so I assume a comment about my ballot is applicable.

    As a Cobb County resident, I was rather surprised that Michael Rhett (D) ran unopposed in State Senate 33. Granted, I haven’t been a model GOPer for quite a while, but I would’ve run.

  5. northside101 says:

    Bridget, you should not be surprised that no Republican ran in Senate Dist 33 (which Steve Thompson is vacating because of his primary loss). Though SD 33 is not majority black, it is probably headed that way…Obama won 58 percent in the district in 2012. Democrats are probably at their “rock bottom” in the Georgia Senate with 18 seats, 15 of which are majority-black in voter registration.

    • Hmm, his FB page has 7 likes and no web page.

      Northside, who has a better chance of beating an AA Air Force Reservist with a doctorate – a white moderate Republican female or female Democrat with business background?

Comments are closed.