Nunn and Carter Lead in CNN Poll

This may be the first of several polls on Georgia’s Senate and Governor’s races you’ll see this weekend. With a little more than a week away from Election Day, Democrat Michelle Nunn leads Republican David Perdue by a 47%-44% margin. Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford pulls 5% of the electorate.

The CNN poll of 565 likely voters was conducted from October 19th-22nd.

In the race for Governor, Jason Carter has 48% of the vote, while incumbent Nathan Deal has 46%. Andrew Hunt has 6% of the likely vote.

Both races are statistically tied, within the poll’s 4% margin of error. Crosstabs weren’t available.

The CNN story notes President Obama has a higher job approval in Georgia than in other states with competitive Senate races. It also highlights Nunn’s strong support among women, 56%-38%. But, CNN’s take on a possible runoff does not reflect conventional wisdom:

In a hypothetical runoff, Nunn still holds a small margin over Perdue, 51% to 47%. But the poll’s likely voter model can only estimate the November electorate, as a runoff election can draw a smaller and different crowd than the general election.

Many believe that if either race goes to a runoff, the Republican candidate would have the advantage.

116 comments

  1. John Konop says:

    Bob,

    Still think the Freedom and Faith flyer was a winner?

    The anti common core, immigration, Obamacare and gays strategy was to shift what voters? Do you guys not get you already had those votes? All you could do at this point is alienate voters…..Not getting the strategy….You are in a general election…Did you guys not get the memo?

    • Bobloblaw says:

      I don’t think any of those things are why Nunn and Carter are leading. It’s outsourcing and corruption. Not all the little issues you mention. I wonder if Perdue and Deal will drag down the ticket?

      Your fanatical support for Common Core has me puzzled about who you are and what your intentions are? Nobody cares about Common Core. You’re the only one ranting about common core. Even Chris Huttman doesn’t mention common core.

      Now the question is can Nunn and Carter win without a runoff? I do believe that Obama has a higher approval rating here than elsewhere. Large black population makes that the case. MS is actually the state where obamas approval rating in unchanged from 2009. It is states like IA, NH where obamas approval rating has fallen 30 points.

      If GA goes blue, within ten years it will be a high tax high spend union state. Mine as well move back to arlington heights, il which is one of the nicest little towns you’d ever see.

      • Bobloblaw says:

        Actually I take that back. Grand Rapids MI is nicer and michigan outside Wayne County is wonderful.

        • Bobloblaw says:

          Not in Jan 2015. But by 2020. Repeal RTW will be the top agenda if the Dems have the state legislature and Govs. It wold be the kiss of death for the film industry in GA. That would be ironic. A lot of CA people tied to film have moved to GA the last 2 years. I’m sure they vote Dem. Ironic if they’d vote themselves out of a job. Then it’s pack up and move to Baton Rouge.

        • Dr. Monica Henson says:

          Georgia was famously the most Democratic statehouse in the country for decades, and it never became a “union state.” I honestly don’t see that coming, nor do I see Georgia “going blue,” at least not in the foreseeable future. I think the most it will change over the next decade is to a deep, deep purple.

            • Bobloblaw says:

              The School Superintendant isnt a partisan voting loyalty position, like other offices. The Dems can do well there and held the office until recently. It is like the Labor Commissioner’s Office. No one cares about which party youre in. It is like the Comptroller’s Office in IL. The GOP has held it forever despite their implosion in every other office. If there is a rising Dem tide in GA, they can win a what is a winnable office anyway.

              • John Konop says:

                First from a trend not true in the past….Second, Woods is know as the anti common core candidate. If what you said is true, statically speaking you made my point….all other non partisan races GOP up by 8 points….16 point swing for the anti-common core candidate….anyway you spin it, this is clear…..

      • Scott65 says:

        Seeing as how we are 50th in per capita taxation, 50th in infrastructure investment…maybe, just maybe, Georgians aint buyin’ that pile of crap anymore about tax and spend…note to all…thats what they are supposed to do, just responsibly…no spending/taxing is not responsible

    • Bobloblaw says:

      BTW I dont even know what the Faith and Freedom flyer is. I do think that there should not be a religious exemption for business. They should have to serve gay people. The real reason I support this is I know what will be coming down the pike. Moslems who dont want to serve customers who violate Sharia. Think it wont happen? It already has at the MSP airport with regards to taxi cabs.

  2. IndyPendant says:

    I thought the exact same thing when the F&F mailer arrived at my house. My spouse and I concluded that Christians think they deserve special treatment under the law, but seek to deny any such thing to homosexuals.

    Snapped a picture of the mailer and sent it to a friend in Colorado, you know the state that recently discovered a new source of tax revenue. He couldn’t stop laughing.

  3. jh says:

    Useless without crosstabs, though Nunn has now lead 4/4 of the latest polls. Landmark is releasing theirs today too, and unless they’re going to be an outlier, she’ll make it 5/5.

  4. TheEiger says:

    I think that pollsters have been scared into over estimating the back turnout. On election night both Perdue and Deal will be leading. May not win outright, but will be leading. The Dems didn’t register as many new people as they needed and only 1,400 people voted statewide this past Sunday. Now we have the scare the blacks to the polls ad about Ferguson. I’m just saying what the Dems already know. The black vote isn’t and won’t be were it needs to be for them to win this cycle. Why did Obama all of a sudden endorse Nunn? It’s because the black vote is staying at home. Call me what you will, but let’s revisit this post on November 5th.

      • TheEiger says:

        1,400 people on one Sunday just in Fulton isn’t going to do it. Next Sunday will need to be in 50,000 range for me to change my prediction.

          • TheEiger says:

            I have no problem with it. Republicans just need to do a better job of getting their people to the polls. One way of doing that is by having a positive message about what they would do rather than why they hate Obama.

            • Bobloblaw says:

              It’s a 14th amendment issue. It’s similar to the scotus in bush v gore. 7-2 against selective recounts. Either recount all the counties or none at all. But you can’t pick and choose.

    • Bobloblaw says:

      It is funny how the Dems are using Ferguson. St Louis County is Dem, the local congressman I think is Russ Carnahan-D, they have a Dem Gov and Dem Senator and the DA is a huge Dem. Yet it still happened.

      • Dave Bearse says:

        It was tacky, but on the other hand it’s an indirect example of what may happen when citizens don’t vote—a more than two-thirds black populace with over four-fifths white local representation with a a 94% white police force.

        • TheEiger says:

          Soooo…. black people get shot by white cops when they don’t vote. Need to explain that one to me.

        • ryanhawk says:

          I think Chris Rock covered the conditions under which the cops will beat your ass pretty well.

          Picking Atlanta suburbs to compare Ferguson too … Doraville? Of course STL is still dying so it’s really hard to compare. Lots of Atlanta suburban communities have had the same phenomena of an older white power structure very slowly giving way to reflect changing demographics. Victor Hill anyone? (I lived near Ferguson when it’s demographic transition began… the police wrote a lot of tickets even back then as did most of the other nearby police departments.)

            • ryanhawk says:

              On second thought I’m thinking much more like Riverdale in terms of size and demographic change. What’s the police, fire, municipal staff look like in Riverdale and how long did it lag demographic changes?

          • Will Durant says:

            Yeah, biggest meme in the Chris Rock routine to a person of color was “carry a white friend”.

            The Democrats’ mailer and the feeble little protest attempt do more to solidify the White Fright vote and swing white independents to Republicans than they help solidify their own.

            This poll cut off before the President’s endorsement of Nunn. I’m guessing that factored in will bring it closer to dead even if the poll were conducted today.

            • We were trying to keep that under wraps. Hopefully voters haven’t seen the nearly $10m spent by Republicans with the single message of Obama wants Nunn to win.

              • Will Durant says:

                I was one of the principle complainers here on the NRSC ads for repeating variations on “I support the President” by Nunn ad nauseum within the ad along with repeating the ad itself ad nauseum. It ended up becoming more irritant than stimulant. My wife took it as a pure insult from Perdue to Nunn in the Perry debate when speaking directly to her he said he was indeed just running against Obama and Harry Reid.

                I just happen to think the confirmation of Perdue’s overdone message with the endorsement hurts more than it helps. Not that it is any great surprise to everyone above ground, just from the spin it will generate all over again. I would rather have his Mama tell me what a good boy he was some more, that one is a shocker as well!

      • ryanhawk says:

        With redistricting Ferguson is now in the 1st, and Carnahan lost in the D primary to Lacy Clay. But yes, it’s pathetic that any Democrat is using Ferguson to elicit support.

      • seenbetrdayz says:

        Eh, Give it time. Black people in Detroit are finally realizing that they’ve been electing democrats for decades, and things have been getting worse, while the whole time the democrats have been blaming republicans for their problems.

        That’s why neither party should ever want a true super-majority. It gets very hard to blame the other guy when there *is* no ‘other guy.’

        Ferguson is just lagging behind Detroit in their awakening.

  5. Bobloblaw says:

    The runoff is impossible to predict too much can happen. If there is a runoff, and I’m not convinced now there’re will be now. Between now and Jan 6th, Obama will appoint a new AG, sign executive amnesty and LA will have a runoff that might determine Senate control.

    Now an interesting question for 2016. Should Nunn win, will there be pressure on issakson not to retire and the TP not to challenge him in the primaries. He retiresor a bloody primary and both GA senate seats go Dem.

    • jh says:

      I read Karen Handel saying something about the governor can appoint a senator. She’s probably waiting for him to win, retire, then be appointed.

  6. South GA Bulldog says:

    I have been watching this debate for a while on here. I can tell you that in South GA neither Carter or Nunn will win. I know everybody gets caught up with emotions but Deal and Perdue will win this race. I have traveled all over South Ga and the State for that matter and I can tell you this will be the outcome. Now I am not saying that it will not be a close race but Deal and Perdue win. The Libertarian candidate will not end up where they are polling. They will get less. And before you say that South Ga doesn’t matter, check out the last 3 Gov races and pretty much all the Statewide Races. South Ga has picked the winner. Just saying. Have fun with this as I know some of you will.

      • South GA Bulldog says:

        I have talked to a lot of people that as you say “don’t look like me.” My wife is a school teacher and I listen to what she hears as well. I am not saying that Nunn or Carter will not get any votes in South Ga but I am saying that they will not win down here. I sit and listen to too many talk about the election, both Republicans and Democrats.

        • tribeca says:

          Really, cause my family down in Tift, Colquitt, Dooley, Butts Counties have pretty fond memories of the elder Carter’s time as governor and haven’t been buying any of the cow patties that Deal has been trying to fling at Jimmy or Jason.

          Carter & Nunn are both names with enough positive recognition to make these two competitive in South Georgia. Not saying they’ll win in places like Tift County, but they’ll sure as heck significantly close GOP margins.

          • South GA Bulldog says:

            We will see. This is my opinion from what I am hearing. Nunn and Carter will not even come close in Tift and Colquitt Counties. They may make it close in Dooley and I am pretty sure that it will not be close in Butts Co. Again, I am going on what I hear and even the Democrats are not excited. The recent mailer from the Democrat Party has hurt them in South Ga even with the Democrats. I probably talk to as many Democrats as I do Republicans on a daily basis. Sam Nunn has a far better name down here than former President Jimmy Carter. However, I am hearing that Michelle Nunn is no Sam and times have changed since he was a US Senator. Back then, most everyone down here was a “Conservative Democrat” but now the shift has been to the Republican Party. I liked Senator Nunn but I will also admit that I was not a fan of Gov. & President Carter. Again, I have said that they would get some votes but they will not beat Gov. Deal or David Perdue in South Ga. I will also say that the people are not buying what Jason Carter is trying to throw at Gov. Deal either nor are they buying that Michelle Nunn will not support Harry Reid or the President. Harry Reid and the President are probably the 2 best things that David Perdue has going for him. Again, this is just my opinion, so take it for what it is worth.

            • Well fortunately we don’t have a county unit system anymore and the votes in a single Cobb or Gwinnett precinct often outnumber an entire county in some parts of the state. Obama got 45.5%. If everyone does 4.5% better than him, they win. So in some of these counties where Obama got 20%, if Carter and Nunn get 25%, they will not “win” south Georgia but it could be enough.

              • South GA Bulldog says:

                The winner will be picked by South GA. I don’t care how many people are in Cobb or Gwinnett. The vote is split there and in this case “So goes South Ga, so goes the election.” Look at the recent elections. We will see come Nov. 4th!

              • South GA Bulldog says:

                I don’t care how many people live in Cobb and Gwinnett. Look at the recent elections. Your Statewide Winners in the General Election, win South GA! In this case ” so goes South GA, so goes the election.” Nunn and Carter will not win this election. We will see on Nov. 4th!

                • tribeca says:

                  Correlation =/= causation. The population of Metro Atlanta and North Georgia makes it much more influential in who actually wins than South Georgia.

                  • South GA Bulldog says:

                    Just look at recent elections and you will see what I am talking about. I know what the statistics show. But I guess you are just like some of the rest of the people that don’t want to look at the facts. It really is pretty simple.

                    • Will Durant says:

                      Yep, it’s a fact that Kingston won practically every South GA county didn’t he? It ain’t your Daddy’s Georgia anymore.

  7. Dave Bearse says:

    I was going to predict that Nunn and Carter would need to be within one-quarter of the Libertarian percentage in the General Election to win a runoff, e.g. 49%+1 in a General Election where the Libertarian took 4%. (Note that’s a runoff prediction that is not a prediction on how Libertarians would split their votes in the runoff.)

    There are wildcards though; e.g. separate runoffs, how the results of the first runoff may impact turnout at the second, and the biggest one of course, the outside attention and money focused on the state should the GOP have 50 Senate seats without Nunn, which channels back to the first two mentioned.

  8. Bobloblaw says:

    So note to GOP: Stop nominating CEOs. Romney blew it, Perdue has blown a lead and in IL, Rauner has gone from 10 points up on the Worst Governor in America to a tie, all after his CEO background was highlighted by the Dems. It is simple. People hate their bosses.

    Now, I always knew the GOP would lose GA, due to changing Demographics but I didnt think it would be this soon. And it might still not be, but it highlights that weak candidates will fail even if GA isnt blue, just less red. So I already developed a strategy for that. When GA’s EV go Dem after VA and NCs do what can you do? Well VA, NC and GA arent like OH. These states are going blue because of fewer whites and more minorities. But minorities are unreachable to vote GOP (Dont give me crap about Jon Huntsman, he appeals to the Farmers Market crowd in their Hybrids not to blacks and immigrants). But there are states with little to no demographic changes that would be stronger GOP if the national GOP changed their tune (BTW lack of demographic changes is why MO has gone from toss up state to solid Red state, MO has the same demographics today as in 1980).

    Those states are MI, WI, PA, OH and IA. The GOP here is does extremely well on the state level. All states have GOP govs, 4/5 have GOP legislatures (IA is split) and the GOP wins down ballot races too. But at the Federal level (Prez and Senate) the GOP has done poorly since 1992. Additionally, these states went GOP far more often than not for Prez between 1968-88. So what is causing the GOP to do well here at the state level and fail at the federal level since 1992?

    The reason is since 1992, the GOP has been the Chamber of Commerce Party, at the federal level any how. Free Trade, NAFTA, opposition to minimum wage and overall a libertarian economic direction. These Great Lakes states I mention are not libertarian states. They are heavily white, catholic and union (Nixon’s 1968 and 72 base). They are conservative on many issues and these voters correctly see that the state GOP has no control over trade issues and immigration which is huge with these voters. So the state GOP wins 50% of the time at least. The Chamber of Commerce federal GOP party hasnt won MI, PA, since 1988, WI since 84 and only 1/6 in IA and 2/6 in OH.

    So to replace the lost EVs from GA, VA and NC, you need to pick up PA, WI, MI, IA and make OH solid instead of tossup. That means kicking the CoC to the curb. No more trade deals, raise the minimum wage to $10.10 and stop opposition to private sector unions (not public sector unions). Stop being the party of the CATO institute. They dont have as many votes as the UAW.

    Also btw GA’s growing black population is coming from somewhere (it isnt births since black fertility is the same as white fertility and educated black female fertility is lower than educated white female fertility). Many are coming to GA from MI, IL, OH. The midwest lost a collective 250,000 blacks to the south between 2000 and 2010. So in theory this alone should begin to push the Great Lake’s region more to the GOP if slowly.

    • John Konop says:

      Let me give you a reality check:

      1) Obamacare most dislike it….but want a fix…no solution and repeal means no insurance via preexisting conditions and no insurance for their kids 25 to 18. Why the polling is overwhelming for fix it!

      2) Immigration most want a fix….But telling people it is culture war with their Asian, Latino, Black…..relative at Thanksgiving makes for a very rough family discussion….since 1 out 4 families have relatives who are of mix race relationships…not smart….

      3) Common core most want to fix it once again not kill it….When the leaders against it talk about this being a communist plot to take over the world it hurts the GOP ie look at Wood race….

      4) Must of us have gay relatives, employees, co-workers, neighbors( the gay guys in my neighborhood have by far the best lawn) :)……Once again, comparing that to people who have sex with animals…..turns off most rational people….You do get a gay person has friends, co-workers, parents, relatives….

      As I said numbers do not lie….The above with changing demographics and pissing off soccer moms is a crazy strategy….It does work in primary, but general it is long term suicide…..

      • Bobloblaw says:

        Again with the Common Core? When you grab hold of something, you dont let go. Had the GOP nominated Kingston and had Deal not been a crook, we wouldnt be talking about Nunn and Carter leading.

      • HueyMahl says:

        I think you nailed it. Republicans are so against progress, so obsessed with Obama, that they shoot themselves in the foot trying to oppose things that generally are good, but could use some tweaking. The electorate appears to be catching on to this tactic. Other than the rabid faithful wanting to go back to 1950, that is.

        It would be nice if they would be concerned with governing, instead being concerned about power. But then I am a hopeless dreamer.

        • But that’s exactly the point. If Republicans took the advice of Bob, or moderated on race, they’d be a party that – wait for it – reasonable people could live with!

          A Republican party that says raise the minimum wage, unions are ok, let’s fix Obamacare. That’s a win for me!

          • South GA Bulldog says:

            If they were the party of raising the minimum wage, unions are okay, and let’s fix Obamacare, then they would be a Democrat. I am a moderate Republican. I am NOT a Tea Party person. But these 3 things that you bring up are part of the problems that small businesses are facing today. Small businesses are what drives the economy. There are a lot of things we may agree on but these 3 things are terrible for our economy.

            • HueyMahl says:

              I’m a long time Republican that has seen my party drift so far to the right that Reagan would never get past New Hampshire and be labeled a RINO. I am also a small business owner, and I can tell you that the Affordable Care Act is the best thing to happen to small business and their employees in the past 30 years. Yes, it needs to be tweeked, but we have seen overall costs go down for the first time ever, and I no longer have to worry about my employees getting sick and not being able to afford to maintain a small group plan. EVERY small business owner I have spoken with feels the same way.

              As to the Unions and minimum wage, I can see both sides. Unions, for all their problems and excesses, have done a lot of good for the country and protected vulnerable workers from danger. They are not the boogeymen that RW whack jobs like to make them out to be. And the minimum wage is at historic lows (adjusted for inflation). The real problem is income disparity – it is holding back our recovery. This should be a non-partisan issue, but it is not, regrettably.

              So I am voting for Nunn and Carter this time. First time I have voted for a democrat in 20 years. If nothing else, it will help to moderate the Republicans. No party should have too much power.

              • Yeah but the prior comment illustrates the problem with Bob’s theory. The Republicans can’t just flip off the extremist switch and think that they’re going to keep all the voters they gained from the Southern strategy. Again, you and I would have no problem with this theoretical futurist moderate Republican party, but the voters that brought them to the dance sure would.

                They’re finally starting to pay the price – EVEN IN GEORGIA – for the bed they made 50 years ago (and in some respects 150 years ago blah blah yeah i know they were democrats back then).

                • South GA Bulldog says:

                  I am not an extremist. I am a Reagan Republican and would probably be called a RINO as well. I am small business owner and I am seeing the opposite of what you are saying. The bottom line is I pay everyone that works for me more than minimum wage. However, that should be up to what the small business can afford. What you do when you raise the minimum wage is cause some small businesses to lay off employees rather tan help raise their pay. I can promise you , you will be worse off if Carter is elected. Gov. Deal has done more for my small business than any Gov. in the past. I also cannot vote for Nunn and Reid and company continue to kill our small businesses through more regulations and Government interference.

                  • How can you be so certain that Governor Deal deserves all the credit and Harry Reid deserves all the blame? If things are so great, why is Harry Reid getting any blame?

                • Bobloblaw says:

                  The Dem party will change too. Once it no longer needs whites to win. I can easily see the GOP getting 70-75% of the white vote 15-20 years from now. A party dominated by minorities will not be a hospitable place for wealthy educated white liberals. What has happened to the GOP in CA will happen to white Dems as well. Hispanics are now the plurality in CA. By 2030, they will be the majority. Why will they need the votes of white liberals from Palo Alto and Santa Barbara? Look up Helen Zille. Anti Apartheid activist. What role do liberal whites play in the ANC today?? ZILCH.

                  BTW my recipe for the GOP winning in the Great Lakes Region is actually quite moderate. Going from free market libertarianism to populism. It is how Nixon and Reagan carried those states.

                  • HueyMahl says:

                    Do you not see the racism inherent in that analysis? It may be a softer kind of racism, but it is racism nonetheless.

                    I do not fear a more pluralistic society. Most democrats don’t. Conservatives clearly do. For so long the establishment has been primarily made up of white men. Your comments are classic – the dying wail of those who fear change. But really what they fear are loss of power, especially if it goes to someone who is not the right skin color.

                    California is actually a shining example of how politics can work in a pluralistic society. It can sometimes be messy, and former disenfranchised minorities gaining power can cause the same types of abuses that the former ruling classes did. But generally it works, and California is better for it.

                • Bobloblaw says:

                  “”Again, you and I would have no problem with this theoretical futurist moderate Republican party, but the voters that brought them to the dance sure would.””

                  Do you really think say Jon Huntsman would do better than Ted Cruz??? Jon Huntsman appeals to people in states like NH, problem is there is only one state like NH. Minorities wouldnt vote for a moderate GOPer anymore than they would for a conservative like Cruz or Palin. In fact the minorities who do vote GOP, tend to be extremely socially conservative. I’d bet Huntsman would get fewer minority votes than Cruz, moving backwards.

                  As for the white vote becoming more GOP, it already is. Romney got 60% of the white vote, higher than any GOPer except Reagan in 84 and Nixon in 72. Eventually, whites being told they will become minorities, will start acting like them. Asians are persuadable to vote GOP, in fact GHW Bush beat Clinton in 92 with Asians. But the GOP would need to be more pro legal immigration and less perceived anti-science. But there is no place where even winning 100% of the Asian vote would matter except HI. Blacks wont vote GOP no matter what. And if they threatened to, youd see the Dem party engage in full racial demagoguery that would make Eugene Talmage blush.

            • Scott65 says:

              so having full time employees that need food stamps to survive is ok? The minimum wage has little effect on small businesses. The data is there. If you are making a profit before, you will find a way to do it after…by all those other minimum wage workers having more money to spend at your business

        • Bobloblaw says:

          “”that they shoot themselves in the foot trying to oppose things that generally are good,””

          such as??

      • Bobloblaw says:

        I Actually know voting in every state down to the county level.

        I know why IL went from red in 1976 to blue today and I can tell you exactly where it happened. I can tell you the very counties in MI where Reagan and Nixon won big but the GOP today struggles (McComb, Monroe and Oakland). I can tell you why VT, the only state to never support FDR and GOP up to 1988, is the most liberal today. Why NJ was R+2 as late as 1992 but is deep blue today. What has happened in PA (In 1988, Bush won big in Bucks, Montgomery and Deleware counties and lost the counties surrounding Pittsburgh, 2012 Romney lost the Philly suburbs by 20 points but won big around PIT, except for Allegheny, that keeps PA closer than it would otherwise be).

        In CO, the journey from deep red to bluish hue is centered in Arapahoe, Jefferson and Adams county. VA is all about NOVA.

        • John Konop says:

          Bob,

          I know statistics….made my money by understand trends and risk…the biggest mistake most make is that you cannot use data if the variables change….My first professor refereed to this in my first research methods class as garbage in, garbage out…. You totally disregard the changes to demographics on how people think about issues. You also totally disregard mothers protective behavior…

          • Bobloblaw says:

            I look at changes in variables. With respect to demographics, I said that WI, PA, MI, OH and IA have had little demographic changes, thus making them ripe for the GOP. MO’s no demographic change is why it is a strong GOP state today while in the past it always went with the winner (1956 excepted). MO has gone with the loser 2 times in a row. Why? America has changed but MO hasnt, that is why.

            I have an MS in economics so I get stats, I took econometrics at the undergrad and grad levels.

            • John Konop says:

              I made money using it in the real world….I was the guy predicting the last economic downfall while I was called chicken little.You are totally disregarding why the GOP is having problems with soccer moms….

              • Bobloblaw says:

                I am doing what youre doing right now. BTW soccer moms is soooo 1996.

                Most people have no clue what Common Core is. It is just another failed gimmick that doesnt address the US short comings in education, namely culture. Remember the 1990s big educational trend? Outcome Based Education. Where is it today? Remember New Math? No Child Left Behind? Remember Reagan’s 1983 speech on the Rising Tide of Mediocrity in education? Americans have been obsessed with improving education ever since Sputnik was launched. The real reason for educational short comings is cultural, not fixable by some gimmick (For the record I think school choice is a gimmick too).

        • Ellynn says:

          Knowing stats vs. knowing people are two different things. This cheesehead (with realtive in IA, IL, MI (upper and lower) & MN) now living in Georgia stands behind her comment.

      • Bobloblaw says:

        You realize that every election has about 6-8% new voters just based on people aging and reaching 18.

      • Bobloblaw says:

        Nate Silver has a great article on why you should ignore state early voting and comparing it to 2010. For instance in IA huge huge gain for Dems and GOP in early voting. Sure but that is because IA has a competitive race, it didnt in 2010. It says nothing about either party’s ground game.

        OH, early voting down big time. Why? No competitive races, it says nothing about the GOP or Dem GOTV operation.

        In 2010, GA didnt have competitive races, it does today. It doesnt mean the Dems have a superior ground game.

        BTW I predict that John Kaisch will be the GOP nominee in 2016. His winning OH by 30 points and shutting out the Dems in every other office, will be like GW Bush winning 70% in TX in 1998. You cant ignore it. My fall back prediction is Mike Pence.

  9. dsean says:

    Regardless of the polling, does anyone see these races avoiding a runoff?

    And does anyone know if early voting is available in the runoff? Quick search of the SoS website didn’t turn anything up.

  10. Bobloblaw says:

    Ill actually make it official now. Ive been playing around with Interactive Senate Maps. The Dems will hold the Senate.

    GOP pick up MT and WV, AK, AR, LA (but in Dec).
    Dems flip KS, GA (Dems hold SD is my prediction and Joni Ernst had a really really bad awful no good day yesterday in IA her only one thus far but it was real bad and too close to the election, polls will show Braley with a 2-3 point lead by next week). Garnder will lose CO due to massive vote fraud that will make Hon Daley’s Chicago circa 1960 look like playschool.

    One wild card might be NC. Hagen has lead but this week starts ads on her funneling Stimulus money to her hubby. We’ll see how that works out. I still contend that Tills was the best of a bad GOP primary field. The TP wanted a guy with a $500k judgement against him for misleading investors…yeah sure.

    Overall +3 GOP. Biggest GOP disappointment since 1998. GOP House is probably +5-10, not bad given +65 in 2010.

  11. Bobloblaw says:

    AJC Poll is out now. I wont say what it says. But at RCP Deal is up 1.4 while Perdue is down .5. So there is a two point split in the ticket. I am dying to see what counties Deal carries but Perdue loses.

    • Harry says:

      Bob,

      In your opinion have Democratic operatives attempted or succeeded to infiltrate and control the Perdue media message? As I don’t watch TV (except NFL) I don’t get to see these ads, but based on comments here, and also how the Romney GOTV efforts were sabotaged in Ohio etc. on election day 2012, I’m just wondering if it could be possible. Of course, I also have to discount the views of opinionated, partisan Democrats who are commenting on the supposed lack of effectiveness.

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