This may be the first of several polls on Georgia’s Senate and Governor’s races you’ll see this weekend. With a little more than a week away from Election Day, Democrat Michelle Nunn leads Republican David Perdue by a 47%-44% margin. Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford pulls 5% of the electorate.
The CNN poll of 565 likely voters was conducted from October 19th-22nd.
In the race for Governor, Jason Carter has 48% of the vote, while incumbent Nathan Deal has 46%. Andrew Hunt has 6% of the likely vote.
Both races are statistically tied, within the poll’s 4% margin of error. Crosstabs weren’t available.
The CNN story notes President Obama has a higher job approval in Georgia than in other states with competitive Senate races. It also highlights Nunn’s strong support among women, 56%-38%. But, CNN’s take on a possible runoff does not reflect conventional wisdom:
In a hypothetical runoff, Nunn still holds a small margin over Perdue, 51% to 47%. But the poll’s likely voter model can only estimate the November electorate, as a runoff election can draw a smaller and different crowd than the general election.
Many believe that if either race goes to a runoff, the Republican candidate would have the advantage.