Landmark Poll: Senate Tied, Deal Leads

A Landmark Communications/WSB-TV Channel 2 poll of 1,000 interviews conducted from October 20-21 shows a tie between Nunn and Perdue at 47%, with Swafford at 3%.  It also shows a small lead by Gov. Deal of 48-45, his first lead in a Landmark Poll since April. The poll has a margin of error of 2.75%.

The poll uses the same 29% African-American makeup as their previous polling.  Landmark Communications is using a higher female vote at 54% than the AJC’s poll released earlier today.  Mark Rountree stated:

“Never in modern history has Georgia had less than 54% female. It will be at least 54%. This matters because women are going double digits for the Democratic candidates — which means when you undervalue women in the weighting, you undervalue some Democratic votes.”

The polling also included some of the down ballots races and voter confidence in Ebola preparedness by the State of Georgia and the CDC.  These results, the poll questions and statistics, and some other points of notes can be seen after the break.

Down ballot races and Ebola prepardness

  • Attorney General – Sam Olens (R) leads Greg Hecht (D) 52-44%, with 4% undecided
  • School Superintendent – Richard Woods (R) leads Valerie Wilson (D) 50-46, with 5% undecided (rounded)
  • Insurance Commissioner – Ralph Hudgens (R) leads Liz Johnson (D) 46-41.  Liberatarian Ted Metz has 9%, with 4% undecided
  • Ebola Preparedness by State of Georgia
    • Highly Confident: 28%
    • Somewhat Confident: 40%
    • Somewhat Not Confident: 20%
    • Not At All Confident: 12%
  • Ebola Preparedness by CDC
    • Highly Confident: 28%
    • Somewhat Confident: 39%
    • Somewhat Not Confident: 20%
    • Not At All Confident: 12%

Some other points of note from the poll include:

  • Governor’s Race
    • 54% of men are supporting Deal, with 39% behind Carter
    • 51% of women are supporting Carter, wtih 43% behind Deal.  This is an improvement by Deal from a 29-point gap from Landmark’s July 15, 2014 poll.
  • Senate Race
    • Nunn and Perdue have both increased from 46% to 47%, while Swafford has dropped from 4% to 3%
    • Men provide Perdue a ten-point lead, while women give Nunn a similar margin

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6 comments

  1. Bobloblaw says:

    Ok Mark, now I agree with your polling. All the polling is coming together as the election draws near.

    Where are Cagle and Kemp please?

  2. Bobloblaw, we ran an interesting experiment a few days ago…

    With the undecided vote being so low, did something a little different: we put Cagle vs Stokes into a head to head poll — but *with no undecided option* offered.

    We only did this experiment in this race…in all the other races, we continued to offer undecided options.

    It was unconventional because, one could say, weaker voters would not move forward past the question. However, because undecided voters are so low (just a a few percent undecided in the bigger races), very few voters hung up when reaching this question. Cagle came out 54-46%.

    During the preceding week we had asked the same question on a poll, but *did* offer an undecided option. On that one, Cagle took 50% to Stokes’ 42%. 10% of African Americans said they were undecided, 7% of whites where undecided, and 16% of “other” races. So African Americans were a little more undecided in that previous poll.

    Bottom line is that it looks to me like Stokes increased a net 4, from 42 to 46, and Cagle increased a net 4 from 50 to 54, splitting the undecided vote evenly.

    In the end, I Cagle was leading by 54-46. Deal has moved up slightly over the past few days…therefore Cagle might get to 55. But the 54% scenario is really possible. And if so, other GOP down ticket races might ultimately have closer races than that. We’ll see.

    Kemp — our poll taken at the same time a week and a half ago where we had Cagle up 50-42, was up 50-44: two points weaker. But that was a week and ha half ago–nothing more recent on the SOS race.

  3. Bobloblaw says:

    Where I think the voters in the poll are way way off is ebola. We are prepared to handle a case or two at a time. How about a dozen? 100? 1000?

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