In a new SurveyUSA poll commissioned for WXIA/11 Alive, more voters are undecided about the gubernatorial and senate races than in last week’s poll, but in the end, not much else has changed except momentum.
Last week, Michelle Nunn led David Perdue in the Senate by three points, 48% to 45%. This week, it’s Nunn 46% and Perdue 44%. Libertarian Amanda Swafford added a point to get to 4% support, and 7% are undecided, up three points.
Similarly after being tied last week at 46% each, Nathan Deal now leads Jason Carter in the governor race, 45% to 43%. Andrew Hunt remains at 4%, and 8% are undecided, a gain of 4 points.
SurveyUSA notes that among those surveyed who have already voted, David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn, 53%-43%. In the governor’s race, the pollsters cite a dropoff in metro Atlanta support for Carter, from 59% to 49%, as perhaps being the main reason for the drop on Carter’s support.
In the down ballot races, no Democrat gets more than 44% of the vote. For School Superintendent, Richard Woods was tied last week with Valarie Wilson, but now leads 46% to 44%. Sam Olens leads Democrat Greg Hecht for Attorney General, at 47% to 40%. Casey Cagle today is 8 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 48% to 40% in the race for Lieutenant Governor, and for Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp leads Democrat Doreen Carter 49% to 40%.
With the closest races, including Governor, Senate and State School Superintendent all coming in within the margin of error, the final result will likely depend on which party can get their voters to the polls. We’re hearing that African American voter turnout is less than what might have been expected. This poll was taken between the 17th and 20th of October, and you can find the crosstabs here. As with the previous poll, data was gathered over a weekend, which many believe tends to favor Democratic candidates.
The Atlanta Journal Constitution is expected to release its latest polling sometime this weekend. It will be interesting to see if their results, thought by some to be more reliable than the robopoll/internet polling technique used by SurveyUSA and others, show the same trend of Deal building a small but steady lead in the governor’s race, while Nunn does the same thing in the senate race.