Latest SurveyUSA Poll has Nunn and Deal Ahead

In a new SurveyUSA poll commissioned for WXIA/11 Alive, more voters are undecided about the gubernatorial and senate races than in last week’s poll, but in the end, not much else has changed except momentum.

Last week, Michelle Nunn led David Perdue in the Senate by three points, 48% to 45%. This week, it’s Nunn 46% and Perdue 44%. Libertarian Amanda Swafford added a point to get to 4% support, and 7% are undecided, up three points.

Similarly after being tied last week at 46% each, Nathan Deal now leads Jason Carter in the governor race, 45% to 43%. Andrew Hunt remains at 4%, and 8% are undecided, a gain of 4 points.

SurveyUSA notes that among those surveyed who have already voted, David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn, 53%-43%. In the governor’s race, the pollsters cite a dropoff in metro Atlanta support for Carter, from 59% to 49%, as perhaps being the main reason for the drop on Carter’s support.

In the down ballot races, no Democrat gets more than 44% of the vote. For School Superintendent, Richard Woods was tied last week with Valarie Wilson, but now leads 46% to 44%. Sam Olens leads Democrat Greg Hecht for Attorney General, at 47% to 40%. Casey Cagle today is 8 points ahead of Democrat Connie Stokes, 48% to 40% in the race for Lieutenant Governor, and for Secretary of State, Republican Brian Kemp leads Democrat Doreen Carter 49% to 40%.

With the closest races, including Governor, Senate and State School Superintendent all coming in within the margin of error, the final result will likely depend on which party can get their voters to the polls. We’re hearing that African American voter turnout is less than what might have been expected. This poll was taken between the 17th and 20th of October, and you can find the crosstabs here. As with the previous poll, data was gathered over a weekend, which many believe tends to favor Democratic candidates.

The Atlanta Journal Constitution is expected to release its latest polling sometime this weekend. It will be interesting to see if their results, thought by some to be more reliable than the robopoll/internet polling technique used by SurveyUSA and others, show the same trend of Deal building a small but steady lead in the governor’s race, while Nunn does the same thing in the senate race.

28 comments

  1. John Konop says:

    ……….School Superintendent, Richard Woods was tied last week with Valarie Wilson, but now leads 46% to 44%………..

    I wonder how much this race is also hurting the top of the ticket…..The agenda 21……anti common core crowd is hurting the soccer moms in good public school districts. The latest anti common core drop by the GOP was not very well thought out if you have a problem with soccer moms…it is comedy of errors…..Do not know John Padgett, but it seems like he has lost control…..after the election might be a time for change…one more cycle under this leadership….no telling how much more damage…..

    • Three Jack says:

      John,

      You are ranting on about ‘Soccer Moms’ eventually opposing the GOP because they favor Common Core? Do I understand your position?

      If so, what data do you have that supports what everybody else would say is a false position. From SecEd Arne Duncan – http://news.investors.com/ibd-editorials-obama-care/111813-679647-duncan-blames-white-suburban-moms-against-common-core.htm?ven=rss
      The administration blames ‘soccer moms’ for the hyperbolic opposition to CC. There are many other stories along the same lines if you Google it. I cannot imagine white suburban moms being in favor of anything if Obama supports it, certainly not how their kids will be educated in local government schools. Please clarify.

      • John Konop says:

        It all depends in what areas you are talking about…..As I said in better school districts does not play well ie in Cherokee, East Cobb….ironic strong GOP areas….you have to know your target….The reason it has become toxic in better school areas is the messengers are like Carolyn Cosby….I have actually pointed out the issues with common core many times…but I do not use crazy talk like it is part of a take over of the world….

        • Three Jack says:

          SecEd was talking about the same ‘soccer moms’ you refer to, suburban white women in affluent areas. So do most other stories I found.

          If you are basing your position on an extremely small sample in Cherokee County reacting to the wackjob running for commission chair, you might want to re-evaluate. But if you have actual data showing soccer moms en masse favoring Common Core, I would love to see it.

          • John Konop says:

            Bart,

            Simple logic skills…..every down ticket race shows an 8 point advantage to the GOP…BUT one race….The GOP candidate key message is anti common core….and Wood is seeing a 16 point swing in voters….Had he said nothing….he would of won….Now who knows….You realize for this to happen GOP voters are switching their votes….Do you think it is GOP soccer moms….or guys like you? I would bet soccer moms….I have attended the meetings it is a clone of Carolyn Cosby, Kelley Marlow…..type message…..I have kids in system….the more parents heard the crazy talk the more parents wanted off the ship….The scary part is common core needs reform….but calling it an agenda 21, Muslim brotherhood, communist take over….turns most rational people off…

  2. northside101 says:

    I have some skepticism about the findings:

    (1) Only has females at 52% of the electorate, whereas they are usually at least 55% in this state;

    (2) Polls has Deal leading among those who have voted by 2 points, and Perdue leading by 10—seems like a lot of ticket splitting if that is the case. Hard to say who will run ahead on election day—Deal or Perdue—but seems like with the various polls, neither is likely to exceed 51 percent even if everything goes their way. Deal got 53 percent in 2010 against Barnes; Perdue of course is a first-timer in the electoral process and obviously he won’t match the 58 percent Isakson got in his 2010 landslide win over Michael Thurmond.

    But the age distribution looks about right, majority of those voting 50 and older.

    • Alex Rowell says:

      I agree that this poll and others are understating the female vote.

      When it comes to the early voting numbers, only 63 people in the sample have early voted, so in raw numbers Deal leads 31-29 and Perdue leads 33-27. Looks like there’s two ticket-splitters, so we need a poll with a bigger sample size to read into the 250k Georgia voters that have already cast a ballot.

  3. Bobloblaw says:

    The newest Jason Carter ad about Deal selling his salvage yard to a company that doesnt pay their taxes is far and away the dumbest ad of this cycle. My reaction was So??????? Deal is much more crooked than that and this is the best Carter can do?

    • Trey A. says:

      Yeah, I feel you. Deal is as crooked as they come. If I were running media for Carter’s folks, I’d be trotting out highlights from all the scandals I could fit in a 30 second spot and I’d put Deal’s image side by side with Rod Blagojevich for at least half of the ad.

      • Bobloblaw says:

        There is no accusation of wrong doing in the ad. Deal isnt responsible for the buying company’s tax liability. If I sell you a widget, and youre someone who doesnt pay your taxes, how is that my fault??? A nonsense ad that assumes the viewers are idiots.

        • Dave Bearse says:

          It’s the buyer and not the seller that is not paying taxes.

          The widget wasn’t sold by someone that has no connection to the collection of taxes. It was was sold by someone that is the most senior person responsible for the collection of the disputed taxes.

          Coincidence. Just like the Governor’s Office contacting someone to about the Transparency Commission Executive Secretary job while that job was investigating ethics complaints concerning the Governor’s campaign, and there was absolutely no reason for anyone to suppose the job would be vacated in the foreseeable future.

          $3,350 sound like a good amount to settle the tax dispute.

          • Bobloblaw says:

            Deal isn’t responsible for the fact the buyer has a tax liability. Unless there is evidence that Deal directed the Dept Of Rev to cease and desist in their collection attempts. There is no scandal.

            • Dave Bearse says:

              Of course he’s not responsible, but Deal is responsible in some measure that the state receives taxes due. The disputed amount in this case is in the tens of millions, a level that warrants gubernatorial attention—it’s not like its David Ralston owing a few thousand dollars.

              It’s no scandal, but there’s there’s a faint whiff about circumstances. There’s no evidence Deal directed his Office contact Holly LaBerge months before Kalberman quit either, though that LaBerge was in charge when Deal’s ethics complaints were favorably disposed of. He isn’t called Shady for nothing.

            • You really think it’s not even somewhat scandalous that a company that owes the state (a disputed) $70m also pays the governor a giant sum of rent each year?

              The scandal is that the tax amount is disputed. And though the ad doesn’t mention this, the tax reform bill they did had a line item slipped in after Copart started negotiating with Deal which basically said the disputed taxes wouldn’t be taxed anymore. Now, it wouldn’t apply retroactively, but it is common for a tax court to rule (in a disputed case) that a change in the law clarifies the position that the disputing company has.

              Hope that makes sense.

              • Bobloblaw says:

                “””You really think it’s not even somewhat scandalous that a company that owes the state (a disputed) $70m also pays the governor a giant sum of rent each year?””

                No. Unless Deal is obstructing or interfering with the Dept of Rev.

                • So if there were some unclear tax law in Atlanta and a company was like we don’t think we owe but the city does, and then the company retained Kasim Reed’s law firm and Kasim was like let’s pass a new law that clears this up in the company’s favor, I’m sure you’d say nothing was amiss.

                  RIIIIIIIGHT.

        • Will Durant says:

          I don’t understand why Carter isn’t attacking on the Ethics Commission fiasco. Especially with the payoffs… uh, settlements to hush it up through this cycle.

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