For months, Republican Congressional candidate Rick Allen has touted a prediction by the Washington Post’s Election Lab that he would knock out Democratic incumbent John Barrow in the 12th District. In an August Facebook post, he even announced triumphantly:
It’s official: John Barrow is the most vulnerable Democrat in Congress.
The Washington Post has already predicted his loss.
Now, that same election model gives Barrow a 74 percent chance of holding his seat.
From the Barrow campaign:
“The term ‘crumbling’ is used to describe Rick Allen’s campaign in nearly every conversation,” said Richard Carbo, spokesman for Friends of John Barrow. “While John Barrow is talking directly with folks in the 12th District about issues that are important to them, Rick Allen is running one of the most negative campaigns in the country. With two weeks to go until the election, we feel stronger than ever and are grateful for the broad support from Republicans, Democrats, and Independents across the district who are tired of the gridlock in Washington.”
The prediction is in line with RealClearPolitics, which also rates the race as “Leans Dem.”
It appears increasingly likely that Barrow, a moderate Democrat, will once again frustrate Republicans’ attempts to take over Georgia’s most competitive Congressional district.