Eligible Voter Count for 2014 Is Less Than In 2012

Back in June, we told you about an attempt by Georgia’s Democrats to turn the Peach State blue by registering 300,000 African American voters.

And in the June 18th edition of the Peach Pundit Daily (Subscribe Here), we told you why the plan wouldn’t work:

Jon Richards examines the claim that if Democrats register all Georgia’s African-Americans the state will turn blue. Interesting stuff, likely impossible, and something the Democrats say, but never do. If you doubt us, consider this: The last day to register and be eligible to vote in the general election in November is October 6. That’s 80 weekdays from today, and to hit their goal Democrats would have to register 3,750 new African Americans every day between now and then, and turn them out to vote a month later. If they haven’t already started, they can’t pull it off. And they haven’t, so they won’t.

It looks like we were right. The Georgia Secretary of State’s office released the final count of eligible voters for the 2014 General Election, and while more black voters were registered since March 1st than white voters, the number is nowhere near 300K. Here are the details:

Current eligible voters: 6,038,372
2012 eligible voters: 6,077,554
2010 eligible voters: 5,795,536

Breakdown of new eligible voters since 3/1/14
Total new eligible voters: 183,416
White: 61,779 (33.68%)
African American: 67,500 (36.8%)
Hispanic: 7,550 (4.12%)
Asian: 5,094 (2.78%)
Other: 3,865 (2.11%)
Unknown: 37,628 (20.52%)

Despite registering new voters in the two years following the 2012 election, the number eligible dropped by some 39,182 people.

In a related item. Walter Jones with Morris News is reporting that the Secretary of State’s office says that all of the voter registration applications submitted by the New Georgia Project have been processed:

Kemp said county registrars have indeed dealt with every application submitted by the New Georgia Project in time for them to participate in early voting, except for about 6,500 that have obvious errors or the roughly 9,500 that are pending resolution of a discrepancy between the application and existing government databases.

“There are no lost voter-registration applications. Every single one that met the deadline has been processed,” he said Sunday evening in a debate organized by the Atlanta Press Club.


    • Jon Richards says:

      I think (but can’t guarantee) that if you don’t vote over a four year period, you are purged from the voter rolls. Since many people only vote in Presidential years, those that voted in 2008 but not 2010 or 2012 would have been purged. Clearly there would have been a lot of people registering/voting in 2008 (Hope! Change!), perhaps for the first time, that didn’t return in 2012.

      • Dave Bearse says:

        They aren’t purged, but they aren’t counted as a registered voter. I received the following in response to an inquiry to the DeKalb Elections Office about the number of votes cast in a precinct exceeding the number of registered voters in a primary election.

        “Our instruction from the Office of the Secretary of State is to use active voter totals but the inactive voters are eligible to cast ballots in all elections. These inactive voters [that voted in the primary election that generated the inquiry] will become active for the next election in November, but they will still be shown inactive for the runoff.”

  1. benevolus says:

    No kidding.
    I guess the voter roll purge worked. But if there were a bunch of ineligible names on the voter rolls it shouldn’t materially change the actual numbers voting.

  2. Will Durant says:

    Judging by a recent trip through my son’s apartment complex I’m wondering how many renters are not eligible to vote since they have not officially moved here from out of state. More than half of the tags are from out of state. I’m not sure if this is anecdotal evidence of the “elimination of the birthday tax” or not. It is an admitted factor in why his neighbors haven’t transferred their vehicles and driver’s licenses to Georgia after having lived here a year. More than $3K to a young couple who aren’t sure they are staying here is a big bite.

  3. The totals always crest and recede in Presidential years. I don’t know why they’re putting out that 3/1 comparison, seems kind of like a meaningless date to pick to me.

    The true comparison is 2010 General Election (and 2012 is interesting as well).

    Since the 2010 general election, it looks like we are up about 300k. How many net black, how many net white, how many net other. As of 9/1, white was lower than 2010, black was higher, other/unknown was way higher. Roy lost by 260k votes. Demographic changes alone should cut that to about 180,000, without any increase in voting rates (also possible).

    So, at 180k, need to flip 90k to tie, need to flip about 140k to win. Say there are about 1.6m white voters – move 5.6% into your column to tie, 8.75% to win. They can come from Republican or libertarian voters.

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