Charlie Cook–Nunn Changes Math for Senate Control

The strong campaigns of Democratic Senate hopefuls in Georgia and Kansas are causing “heartburn” for Republicans, says veteran political soothsayer Charlie Cook.

On Monday, he wrote that if Democrats win both races (a still unlikely proposition, he concedes), Republicans will have to pick up eight seats to reclaim the Senate. 

Republicans are also getting heartburn from the race for the open Senate seat in Georgia. Though the computer models have long given the GOP a huge advantage in the state—one was giving Republicans over a 99 percent chance just a week or two ago—this was always likely to be a very, very competitive race, which is why The Cook Political Report has rated it as a ‘Toss Up’ since March.

…Gradually, Perdue began to pull things together and eased ahead of Nunn with a lead that was admittedly not large, but seemed to be durable. One Perdue advantage is that Georgia still votes more like a Southern state, having not yet transitioned into a purple, competitive state, as other states like Virginia have.

The hammer has since come down on the Perdue campaign. Democrats have attacked Perdue’s business record and his affinity for outsourcing jobs—something that is often necessary in today’s business world, but remains very unpopular during a fragile recovery, where the median real family income hasn’t improved since 2000. Now, Nunn is in a very close race with Perdue, whose campaign is in something of a tailspin.

I shudder to think what the race will look like if we head to a runoff with Senate control still undetermined.

33 comments

  1. Charlie says:

    “I shudder to think what the race will look like if we head to a runoff with Senate control still undetermined.”

    Honey, are those Christmas carolers at the door?

    No, it’s just the dang College Republicans again…

    • Jon Richards says:

      While the thought of a runoff with control of the Senate in the balance may cause fear and loathing, what will happen if control of the Senate is already decided on November 4th? If Harry Reid has 51 votes in January, how will that affect the way the runoff is run, and how much interest voters will have in the contest, compared to let’s say, the Dawgs in the football playoffs?

  2. John Konop says:

    I got a voter guide from Faith and Family….not sure it helps Perdue or Deal….

    Anti Common core—- Not sure that plays well with soccer moms

    Anti Medicare- not sure that playe well with older voters

    Anti Immigration- not sure that plays well with swing voters

    Anti Gays- not sure that plays well with swing voters…

    I think it was a good primary stuff….but not sure if it helps in a general election…Nunn should be thanking the brain trust at the Perdue campaign for keeping her in the race….

      • John Konop says:

        Ironic a Christian group anti healthcare for poor and old people…WOW…..the brain trust…piss on soccer moms real smart by you guys…any more help like this you guys could really blow it…Dumb and dumber messaging campaign….

            • Bobloblaw says:

              really soccer moms love common core??? Who identifies as soccer mom anyway?

              Common Core is one of those things were support is weak and passion is on the opposition side.

              • John Konop says:

                Sure….dude you really need to get out of your circle of friends…You are flat out wrong in the good school districts like North Fulton, Cherokee, East Cobb, West Cobb……ie soccer mom crowd….You guys are tone death with women….The agenda 21, Muslim radicals Blah Blah…..is not selling in the good schools districts via common core….People get their our issues…but like Obamacare they are in the fix it mode…..The anti common core has alienated the above soccer mom crowd with crazy talk….ie like the immigration issue…. The culture war message is killing you guys….

    • Bull Moose says:

      Is Faith and Family the new Ralph Reed scheme? If so, I’m curious, are these efforts paid for by those who are for or against gambling on Native American Reservations! Are they anti-common core because they are actually in support of a different plan? I mean, this guy doesn’t just pop up to advocate for a cause or position unless there is money to be made.

      • Will Durant says:

        Nah, there is plenty to be had by simply repeating the right trite mantras regarding “Faith and Family” repeatedly. “They all tell ya to send your money to the Lord, but they give you their address.” — Hank Jr.

    • John Konop says:

      Not sure how it will not be a run off…but agree Perdue and Deal win….The trend is clear….and if the GOP does not listen to Casey Cagle message they are dead man walking the next cycle….

      • jh says:

        It won’t be a runoff if Nunn’s voters show up en masse. Haven’t seen that in early voting yet, even with Sunday voting in Fulton this weekend.

        • John Konop says:

          If he had the Casey Cagle message I would agree…but this is the worse campaign I have ever seen in Georgia….He should outsource the guys running this disaster…He should get on the hotline with Charlie Harper months ago….This cycle….better be a lesson how to run campaigns….The only real pollster in our state is Mark at Landmark….How many post did Charlie post on the PP warning what they needed to do!

      • Bobloblaw says:

        Actually if the Dems lose this time, they wont win next cycle. Nunn and Carter are their best candidates. You think Kasim Reed will be Gov in 2018 or Senator in 2016

          • Bobloblaw says:

            Oh yes the inevitable demographic changes which mean Hank Johnson is a shoe in for whatever statewide office he chooses.

            Demographic changes = brain dead voters who vote Dem no matter what. What a great utopia the peach state will become

              • Bobloblaw says:

                Oh yes the War On Women meme. The GOP controlled the House from 1994-2006 and 2010-???? So 16/20 years and not a single vote to ban birth control or make abortions harder.

                Your support for women is great.

                Joni Ernst and Terry Land are waiting for your donation

    • Will Durant says:

      Yeah because everyone knows God is on the side of the Republicans.

      Though with the HOPE not able to keep pace with the Regents and their unfunded mandates from the Governor, Ralph might oughta’ consider an Atlanta or Savannah casino or two that doesn’t involve a drive to Cherokee.

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