Tough Times Ahead for David Perdue?

Is the David Perdue campaign in for some rough times over the next few weeks as it works to win the Senate from Michelle Nunn? FiveThirtyEight believes it just might be. The following is from their recent article:

Something funny happened in FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast over the last two days. The overall odds haven’t moved much — Republicans have a 61 percent chance of winning a Senate majority — but the second-most competitive race is now in a state that hasn’t been paramount in the minds of most political analysts: Georgia.

The model now gives Republican David Perdue a 66 percent chance of winning in the Peach State and a tiny 1.4 point lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn. We project Perdue to fall just short of a majority in November, which would trigger a runoff in January.

The article cites the recent SurveyUSA Poll that puts Michelle Nunn three points ahead of David Perdue. FiveThirtyEight was founded by ballgame statistician turned political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia during the 2012 Presidential election, and 36 of the 37 states during the 2010 Gubernatorial elections.

But why the sudden drop in Perdue’s polling numbers? Conservative radio show host and Peach Pundit Editor Emeritus Erick Erickson believes that Michelle Nunn’s recently acquired lead on David Perdue can be attributed to the Nunn campaign outspending the Perdue campaign in the Atlanta media market. On Erickson’s October 16th show, he asserts that Nunn’s paid media attacks on Perdue’s outsourcing record is only hurting Perdue more by causing “protectionist conservatives” to switch sides from Perdue to Nunn.

Erickson also predicts that while Perdue would not be strong enough to avoid a runoff, he would still win it, given the Georgia Republican Party’s consistent record of performing well in runoff elections in the recent past. But the way things stand right now, it should be safe to assume that the likelihood of the Senate race going into a runoff gets stronger day by day.

49 comments

  1. Bobloblaw says:

    “”he asserts that Nunn’s paid media attacks on Perdue’s outsourcing record is only hurting Perdue more by causing “protectionist conservatives” to switch sides from Perdue to Nunn.””

    I dont think they are switching sides, more likely not voting at all.

        • Michael Silver says:

          … and people who seek to excel in jobs where the challenges are so big that failure is likely are scorned.

          Somewhere along the line, our nation has been transformed from people who defeated the Nazi’s and Japanese against overwhelming odds into a bunch of unmotivated, scared, jealous, dependents of the State. Obama, the Dems, and the establishment Republicans have achieved their goal. 🙁

          • Wow the GOP nominates the worst possible candidate they could for Senate (I was secretly rooting for it all year) and you derive quite the geopolitical historical lesson from that.

            • John Konop says:

              You keep avoiding the issue….Nunn supports the slave type labor outsourcing trade deals…Are you for Nunn because you agree with the policy, and against Perdue for doing it?

                • John Konop says:

                  Before we debate that…tell me how am I wrong….Nunn has been clear she supports the current trade policy that fosters the outsourcing of USA jobs to slave labor conditions countries like China….. Help me understand how I am wrong?

                  • benevolus says:

                    We have to be able to compete with China. Cannot avoid it. How do you propose we do that? Isolationism?

                    • John Konop says:

                      If you look at the economy in China they have real issues…..a massive realestate bubble….you cannot build 200k homes and sell them to 2 dollar a day workers…ie Henry Ford pay your workers enough so they can afford to buy products they produce…

                      First I would raise the mimunim wage above the poverty line….and reduce taxes by the savings in subsidies we give people working below poverty line. The tax savings would off set the inflation issues…and the extra consumption would grow jobs,jobs….

                      Second I would cut foriegn policemen of the world policy and reinvest into tax credits to make sure we never have to buy energy again from the Midle East. The tax credits would be higher for American made batteries, sollar panels , cars…..

                      Third I would go to China and creat a phased in trade policy that would left all ships…right now the policy is not healthy for either country..We borrow money to buy stuff from China from workers who cannot buy stuff in China….I would work with China on wage agrements phased in…so it would be win win…

                      Forth, I would implement the bipartisan investment bank idea for infastructure improvements so we can move goods more efficiently…which would create more internal growth in our economy.

                      Finally I would reform the education system to bring colleges, high schools and vo-tech schools under one roof….We have seen succes via joint enrollment across the country….I would add internships/ coop options with business community…

                    • benevolus says:

                      I’m just saying, if they are making $2 a day, and we are used to making $20 an hour, and we are competing for manufacturing jobs, there is going to be an adjustment for us. And I believe I have read that wages are increasing rapidly in China.

                    • John Konop says:

                      Benevolous,

                      The rapid increase is not material via the issue….if a person is making 2 bucks a day with no rights….and you pay 3 dollars a day massive increase by percentage….not material impact via the issue….People confuse percentages and dollars a lot….

                    • benevolus says:

                      Well I guess I don’t know what “issue” you are talking about. I thought it was about Michelle Nunn supporting trade policies that I can only guess has to do with trading with China.

                    • John Konop says:

                      B,

                      ……….I believe I have read that wages are increasing rapidly in China……..

                      I was revering to this comment…..

                      My answer:

                      …….The rapid increase is not material via the issue….if a person is making 2 bucks a day with no rights….and you pay 3 dollars a day massive increase by percentage….not material impact via the issue….People confuse percentages and dollars a lot….

                    • John Konop says:

                      Hope this helps……

                      China’s Bubble Economy or “The China Bubble”

                      …….China’s building purely for the sake of creating economic growth – completely uninhabited “ghost cities,” such as Ordos in Inner Mongolia and many other empty full-size cities filled with apartment buildings and skyscrapers that can be seen in great detail via satellite imagery. Even the world’s largest mall, the New South China Mall, has been (link has an excellent video) 99% vacant since it opening in 2005 – malinvestment at its finest. There are now 70 billion sq. feet worth of buildings of all types under construction and enough new office space to give every person in China a 5′x5′ cubicle. Then there is another class of projects that can only be ascribed to “bubble drunk” decision making, such as the new government pharmaceutical plant that looks just like a palace,…….

                      ………Economic bubbles and reckless credit booms go hand in hand and the China Bubble is no exception in this regard. A chart of Hong Kong banks’ exposure to Mainland Chinese debt displays the truly parabolic nature of China’s credit bubble that started in 2009. China’s local governments have financed their ridiculously extravagant construction projects via a $1.7 trillion “subprime” credit bubble, of which $540 billion is likely bad debt, according to Moody’s. Fitch has also warned about Chinese local government debt saying, “credit risk has risen from an over-extension of loans to local governments and property.” As the IMF sounded an alarm over the Chinese banking system’s vulnerability to heavy losses, an influential Chinese finance professor said that the Chinese banking system was “on the brink of bankruptcy” and that “every province in China is Greece.” To make matters worse, Société Générale has warned that China’s massive and largely unregulated shadow banking system may need to be rescued, no small feat considering how pervasive this type of banking is in China. In the city of Wenzhou, an incredible 90% of families are involved in the underground banking business, which includes loan sharking and pawnshops…….

                      http://www.thebubblebubble.com/china-bubble/

            • Bobloblaw says:

              Well, not the worst. Broun and Gingrey were worse. BTW you havent won. Nunn isnt at 50% and at RCP she isnt even ahead.

              Im less confident in Ernst and Gardner winning than you are of Nunn winning and Ernst and Gardner are well ahead. Nunn isnt

              • Broun obviously worse, you are right, but of the remainder:

                Kingston – obvious, guys exactly like him win all the time.

                Gingrey – not that much different from Kingston. Goof prone, sure, but at the end of the day run of the mill Republican lawmaker.

                Handel – highest risk/reward. She’s a one trick pony and the electorate always eventually tires of the trick. She used to have a lot of moderate cred but really hurt her brand with Komen etc. So I could almost equally envision her getting 55% of the vote and 45% of the vote. Just really depends on a lot of factors.

                Perdue – only guy, imo, that we had a solid shot against. Republican primary voters were dumb enough to fall for his outsider schtick and really Kingston’s campaign wasn’t good enough to show that he actually isn’t (win or lose Nunn’s campaign has excelled at this). He had big leads in general election polling right after the primary when he was the moderate outsider. Now he’s the super conservative Obama hating outsourcer. To borrow from your comment, he was running the Ernst and Gardner campaign in the primary. Can’t do it anymore.

                • Bobloblaw says:

                  Gingrey had some Akin like statements in the past, but none at least on camera.

                  I agree with Handel. She always seem better on paper than she performs in election day. At least GOP women wouldnt go for Nunn.

                  BTW in IL Quinn has successfully used the CEO club against Rauner and is now leading by more than he lead Brady in 2010 when he won by one point.

                  For the record I voted for Kingston both times.

          • MattMD says:

            I have never understood this “we beat the Nazi’s and Japanese” single handedly B.S. Your historical recollection of WW II is way off base. For starters, go read about the Eastern Front before you post such nonsense again.

            We were destined to beat Japan eventually. Those odds were not overwhelming after the Pearl Harbor attacks missed critical elements of our Pacific fleet.

            • Also a lot of people who actually did beat the Nazi’s and Japanese might question being lumped in with a guy whose primary life achievements have been opening a bunch of factories in China.

            • Rich says:

              I recommend the Ken Burns series “The War” also. It’s a thorough telling. Well, as much of one as can be presented in 15 hours. On Netflix. Also try “Inequality for All” and “United States of Amnesia” while educating yourself.

  2. Dave Emanuel says:

    I see associated irrelevance has commanded the day. Did the U.S single-handedly defeat the Japanese and the Nazis, save the world and preserve white picket fences and apple pie for the eons? In the inimitable words of Hillary Clinton, “what does it matter”, when the conversation is revolving around Georgia’s candidates for the Senate? Michelle (Nunn) Martin is either a fraud or on of the most naive people ever to run for public office. Her platform reads like something written by a conservative political consultant, yet she has publicly aligned herself with president Obama’s judgment (such as it is). Should she be elected, she will fall in lock step with Harry Reid. If Georgians want a Senate that won’t pass a budget and will bury hundreds of bills passed by the House, Michell “my daddy is Sam Nunn” Martin is their candidate.

    • Dave, please keep resorting to calling names – literally. I take it that you, like me, never had to make a decision about what last name you’d use when you were married. David Perdue is LITERALLY trading on his name – his cousin was a popular governor who appointed him to the most powerful state board, after which time they started a business together (Perdue Partners, natch) where he took advantage of the power and favor accrued by someone that shared his famous last name.

      And while David’s dad wasn’t a US Senator, it isn’t like he didn’t come from a prominent family. The Perdue name meant a lot in Houston County and Middle Georgia, and David and Sonny were both lucky that they never had to make the decision when they got married at a young age of do they change the name that can open doors or not.

      But like I said, please keep being a d-bag. Your 1950’s caveman outlook on modernity is literally driving votes into the Democrats waiting arms.

  3. jmacs12000 says:

    I continue to read this “News” as I always find it amusing. While I do see a few Nunn/Carter signs in the odd ball or union or some mad school teacher’s yard’s (2 out of over 100 houses). I refuse to believe Republicans or conservatives are that dumb to stay home and not vote. What I do see and hear at work and on the radio is an energized Atlanta Democratic base who will get their voters to a very high if not record turnout for an off year election. What I don’t see in Metro Atlanta is any effort by the State GOP leaders to combat this. I attended one local GOP meeting and saw a bunch of 70 somethings trying to look soo important and listened to blah blah blah how hard they worked. Well, here we are and Perdue will win eventually despite their lack of effort. Same goes true for local “conservative” talk radio hosts who are too nice to the opposition and waste their time talking about what could have been. Listen to local Spanish talk radio stations and see how they voice their views and get their listeners out to vote.

  4. saltycracker says:

    Hmmm, admittedly somewhat isolated as the majority of folks I encounter are sick of the drama, hang up on robo/polling calls and are heavily early voting….GOP. Don’t know if they will be outnumbered by Georgians that thinks the state needs to do more for them as opposed to doing things better, are unemployed, miserable, publically supported and/or disenfranchised from freely pursuing a satisfying life.

    • Or you could be like me who makes too much money to theoretically qualify for HOPE if Jason Carter wins (according to Nathan Deal) who just think the Republicans suck.

              • Harry says:

                He’s saying if you weren’t a SINK you’d need the entitlement to get your kids through school. My college freshman is having to pay $650/month for her dorm room.

              • John Konop says:

                Hope is scholarship fund paid by selling lottery tickets, used to keep the best and brightest in state…..Not really an entitlement that is based on what is collected via taxes and does not balance….

                  • John Konop says:

                    As I said if you had 2 kids, I think you would have a different opinion…Once again you forget, kids at the lower income bracket qualify for grants……that the upper income kids do not…

                  • Harry says:

                    It’s easy for you to say if you don’t have kids in college. Kids and the universities can make 140K look like peanuts. Which is why middle class folks like you aren’t getting married and having children.

                • jh says:

                  It started off means tested and it should have stayed that way. Yes it hurts if you make $140k and have kids and go on vacation and have a big mortgage, but the families making half as much need it more.

                    • jh says:

                      Sure some rich kids do get screwed from stingy parents that make them get student loans, but on the whole, I’d rather be a kid with no scholarships/grants from a $140k mom and dad household than getting scholarships under a single parent family that didn’t have SAT tutoring or other privileges.

                    • jh says:

                      It should be phased out. And for kids that got poor parents, it would be more helpful for them if they got HOPE than other parents. Not that I don’t understand the burden of the $140k, but there’s only so much money to give.

                      To me, it makes more sense to give it to more families under ~$70k and the kids make 3.0, than to all kids regardless of income, with 3.7 GPAs.

                    • John Konop says:

                      If kids parents make 75k or more the kid is left with a mountain of debt….and less scholarship chances via the income being to high for the family? You and Mr. Carter clearly have not thought this out…..

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