Is the David Perdue campaign in for some rough times over the next few weeks as it works to win the Senate from Michelle Nunn? FiveThirtyEight believes it just might be. The following is from their recent article:
Something funny happened in FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast over the last two days. The overall odds haven’t moved much — Republicans have a 61 percent chance of winning a Senate majority — but the second-most competitive race is now in a state that hasn’t been paramount in the minds of most political analysts: Georgia.
The model now gives Republican David Perdue a 66 percent chance of winning in the Peach State and a tiny 1.4 point lead over Democrat Michelle Nunn. We project Perdue to fall just short of a majority in November, which would trigger a runoff in January.
The article cites the recent SurveyUSA Poll that puts Michelle Nunn three points ahead of David Perdue. FiveThirtyEight was founded by ballgame statistician turned political forecaster Nate Silver, who accurately predicted the outcome in all 50 states and the District of Columbia during the 2012 Presidential election, and 36 of the 37 states during the 2010 Gubernatorial elections.
But why the sudden drop in Perdue’s polling numbers? Conservative radio show host and Peach Pundit Editor Emeritus Erick Erickson believes that Michelle Nunn’s recently acquired lead on David Perdue can be attributed to the Nunn campaign outspending the Perdue campaign in the Atlanta media market. On Erickson’s October 16th show, he asserts that Nunn’s paid media attacks on Perdue’s outsourcing record is only hurting Perdue more by causing “protectionist conservatives” to switch sides from Perdue to Nunn.
Erickson also predicts that while Perdue would not be strong enough to avoid a runoff, he would still win it, given the Georgia Republican Party’s consistent record of performing well in runoff elections in the recent past. But the way things stand right now, it should be safe to assume that the likelihood of the Senate race going into a runoff gets stronger day by day.