Perdue’s Outsourcing Comments May Be Moving Voters in Northwest Georgia

Jon’s already done a great job of giving a full run-down of today’s SurveyUSA poll, which showed Michelle Nunn leading David Perdue 48%-45%. However, I noticed one major swing in the crosstabs that hasn’t yet received much attention: Nunn closing the gap in Northwest Georgia. While just one week ago she trailed Perdue there by 23 points, she now is behind by just 6. With SurveyUSA projecting that this region (which spreads to include Rabun, Oconee, and Upson counties) will make up 35% of voters, this swing could make a major difference on election day.

Trendline for NW Georgians in GA-Sen

Why the change? The recent focus on Perdue’s outsourcing comments – that he not only “spent most of [his] career doing that” and his subsequent ‘pride,’ would naturally have a big impact in manufacturing-rich Northwest Georgia. In the three Regional Commissions that mostly make up the region, manufacturing makes up one of the top industry sectors, and the Northwest Georgia Regional Commission earned the state’s only “Manufacturing Community” designation from the U.S. Department of Commerce.

SurveyUSA’s poll movement doesn’t show similar movement elsewhere: Nunn solidified her support in Atlanta, and lost a bit of ground in the South. With roughly a 7% margin of error for each regional crosstab, though, only the Northwest Georgia shift seems significant.

With this poll being conducted before the Nunn campaign launched their latest ad featuring Perdue’s “Defend it? I’m proud of it!” line, we’ll see if future polling shows this trend continuing. Things might get even worse for Perdue, too– residents of Northwest Georgia’s “Carpet Capital of the World” woke up today to news of the Tuesday visit of popular former Senator Sam Nunn in the Dalton Daily Citizen.

14 comments

  1. jh says:

    Thanks for the regional definitions! Is Nunn advertising in “NW GA” though? I thought she was just fighting in ATL and South GA. Of course, the news is free media.

    • xdog says:

      It’s a weird classification that puts Oconee and Morgan counties in NW GA but we still get TV over here and both Nunn and Perdue are filling up the airways.

      • Will Durant says:

        Also includes Spalding and Rabun counties. Definitely NOT NW GA. More like North GA minus Atlanta.

        And getting TV doesn’t count anymore unless you can’t cut down enough trees to aim the dish. I mean, you don’t even have to use a 9ft. wide Tennessee State Flower anymore.

  2. Will Durant says:

    I think the greatest shift is primarily due to the effect outsourcing has had on non- farming pale stale males as much as region. Huge swing in that category.

  3. Cowabunga says:

    I read Erick Erickson’s post at Redstate and couldn’t help but chuckle. It’s hilarious that all the political elites can’t bring themselves to acknowledge the obvious. Your top of the ticket is a lying crook. Of course the polls are going to firm up. Perdue is the victim.

    Carter hasn’t had his breakaway moment, but he will. Deal squeaked through last time, not because people liked or trusted him but because they disliked Barnes.

    • Trey A. says:

      That’s what I’ve been saying. Nobody is glad they voted for Rod Blagojevich, Edwin Edwards or Bob McDonnell… If you don’t think Nathan Deal belongs in that club, you obviously haven’t been paying attention.

      I like Perdue, but there’s no way I’m voting for Deal. Now, how many potential Perdue voters are staying home because they don’t want to vote for a crook and can’t bring themselves to vote for Carter? And how many solid blue voters would be staying at home if there wasn’t an ethically bankrupt GOP governor running for a second term?

      • Patrick Mayer says:

        Chris, you are saying that a 10 point swing in a state that is 45/45/10 (after a primary who’s wounds are still requiring some care) is not strong? Just making sure…

        • David C says:

          It’s not a 10 point swing, it’s a 10 point margin. If you want to go swing (which details shifts between election), it was actually about a 5 point swing of votes from Republican to Democrat, going from Sonny’s 58-38 margin in ’06 to Deal’s 53-43 even though 2006 was an awful year for Republicans nationwide and 2010 a great one. ‘ Deal ran pretty far behind every other Republican statewide other than Olens.

    • Cowabunga says:

      Absolutely. Consider the anti Obama fervor, a 10 point spread in a heavily tending Republican state was not amazing. Barnes had a record. Deal dies now as well. Everything Barnes threw at Deal has proven to be accurate. Now Deal has even built on his corrupt reputation.

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