Nunn Leads Perdue By 3 in New SurveyUSA Poll

11 Alive has released the results of a new SurveyUSA poll that for the first time in their series of polls shows Michelle Nunn in the lead for the Georgia Senate race against David Perdue. The poll shows Democrat Michelle Nunn with 48%, Republican David Perdue with 45%, and Libertarian Amanda Swafford with 3%. 4% of voters remain undecided. While the margin of error is 4.2%, meaning that the two could conceivably be tied, that’s likely no consolation.

Looking at the poll’s crosstabs, the electorate is assumed to be 61% white, 27% black, 7% Hispanic and 5% Asian. That potentially underestimates the black vote, which is overwhelmingly in favor of Nunn, by about two percent. And, if the poll is correct in reflecting the ultimate vote, a 50/50 split among undecideds could bring Nunn a win without a runoff.

The pollsters note how Perdue is losing support from groups previously on his side:

Week-on-week, Nunn has gained ground among men, where she now trails by 3. (Five weeks ago, she trailed among men by 19.) Among Independents, Nunn has closed to within 6 of Perdue (she had trailed by 28 points among Independents in August). In greater Atlanta, Nunn had led by as few as 10 points, but today leads by 22.

In the gubernatorial contest. Republican Nathan Deal is tied with Democrat Jason Carter at 46% apiece. 4% support Libertarian Andrew Hunt and 4% are undecided.

In down-ballot races, Lt. Governor Casey Cagle leads challenger Connie Stokes 49%-42%. Secretary of State Brian Kemp leads Doreen Carter 48%-41% in his bid for re-election. In a tight race, Attorney General Sam Olens leads Greg Hecht 46%-43%, with 11% undecided.

The race for State School Superintendent shows a tie between Democrat Valarie Wilson and Republican Richard Woods. Each has 46%, with 8% undecided. One of the main things that differentiate Woods and Wilson is their support or opposition to the Common Core educational standards. Wilson supports them, while Woods opposes them.

In the SurveyUSA poll, 35% opposed the standards and 20% supported them. 45% didn’t know enough to say. The most support for the standards appears to come from blacks and those under the age of 35. Members of these groups typically favor the Dempcratic candidate on other matchups.

The poll was taken between October 10th through October 13th. That means those polled would have had the opportunity to be influenced by last week’s Governor and Senate debates in Perry. Most of those polled would not have seen the Atlanta Press Club debates for down-ballot races that were aired Sunday.

Polls released within the last month had David Perdue with a comfortable lead over Michelle Nunn. What could have changed? Many potential voters appear to be turned off by Perdue’s ads claiming Nunn supported terrorists, as evidenced by her leaked campaign plan. Others appear to be frustrated by the lack of a positive vision or legislative agenda by the Republican candidate.

With votes being cast and three weeks to go before the polls close, the opportunity to change these perceptions is dwindling.

56 comments

  1. I guess people aren’t crazy about putting a guy who made millions from a career in outsourcing in the Senate.

    Despite the fact that many, many, many people who comment here can’t grasp that. Jack Kingston must want to murder his media consultant for not going to Kannapolis during their NINE week runoff to see if at least one person wanted to talk about Pillowtex.

  2. Michael Silver says:

    I’ll bet after today’s event with John McCain, Perdue falls lower in the polls.

    I’d rather have Michelle in the Senate than another establishment, pro-amnesty, pro-TARP, open-borders deficit spending, Republicrap.

    • Salmo says:

      As much as I would hate to see it, I wonder if many Georgia Republicans (or Republican voters) don’t need a real, live Democrat elected again in Georgia so they can be reminded that there actually is a difference between the two.

  3. Noway says:

    Did Perdue do Anything good in his private sector career? Did he save, restructure or do positive things like save jobs for many of his firms or is he just a job killing scumbag? Anyone?

  4. Robbie says:

    The most (pleasantly) surprising thing is Hecht’s gains on Olens. I’m thrilled that he’s gaining ground. It would be nice to have an AG who didn’t want to waste tax dollars just to be spiteful.

        • Michelle is a forthright, effective, mature, prepared, responsible, down-to-earth leader – which is what Georgia needs… and wants.

          She didn’t just hold her own to Perdue’s flustered squawking during the debate… Michelle was clearly the adult on stage.

          Like I said in my comment to you back in May – at dawn, we ride.

          • John Konop says:

            As I said months ago when you publically announced supporting Nunn….this is a bad sign for the GOP beyond this race….Your demographic was GOP strong hold…educated smart businesswomen…..Combine this with demographic changes driving views on race, religion…..put on steroids as interfaith and interracial marriages increases….add on other social issues like anti gay bashing…..The GOP needs to re think the message….

          • Bobloblaw says:

            She’s none of those. Her first vote will be for Reid.

            Perdue should run against Amnesty. If this race goes to runoff which I think it will, Perdue can ask Nunn if shed vote for the AG nominee, which by all indications will be worse than Holder.

          • Salmo says:

            That very well may be true. We don’t know that for sure about either of them (unless you personally know them, which I don’t) because neither of them have held any office whatsoever. We have nothing to judge them on, which has probably been a positive for them to this point, unfortunately. Jack Kingston has by almost all accounts been a great representative for his district and clearly had the political skills needed to represent the state in the Senate, but that was actually held against him by enough voters that it probably cost him the election in favor of a guy whose major selling point was that he had no experience. Nunn and Perdue could both turn out to be great leaders, or they could both turn out to be complete doormats once they get in the Senate that cost the state of Georgia dearly.

            That speaks nothing of policy, though. I’d have a lot more respect for your position if there was something concrete, policy-speaking, in your support for Nunn. Instead, you just sound like a campaign staffer spouting off meaningless platitudes gained from morning talking points. I don’t have a super-high opinion of David Perdue (heck, I might even like Michelle Nunn better as a person if I knew them both and I differ politically with him in several cases), but I do know that he’ll vote my way more often than his opponent would if he makes it in the Senate. That’s the most important thing any voter ought to be considering, in Salmo’s humble opinion.

  5. jh says:

    Yay Senator Nunn 🙂 interesting how Nunn is now doing better than Carter. I’ve always thought she had better campaign but national fundamentals were against her. With Deal tarring Carter, ticket splitters have reversed the split?

      • jh says:

        I thought so too. He’s good on the trail. Deal’s good himself (as a candidate, speaker, debater). Perdue is just terrible. This is all based on the recent debate performances.

        • Bobloblaw says:

          I would be unhappy if Nunn won but I wouldnt be too upset if Carter won. I think he is a good candidate and frankly his job will be only to sign bills or have his vetoes overridden.

          But GA aside the most important Senate races are IA and CO, along with AR, AK and LA (The GOP has to win in states Obama won if it is to win in 2016). Losing IA and CO but winning AR, AK and LA just means status quo from 2012, which means Dems win the WH in 2016.

          On the Gov front, the most important elections are WI and MI. While I personally dislike Crist immensely, losing MI and WI means govt can never be reformed or shrunk. FL doesnt really carry that message. FL means one huge scum bag beats a slightly less scum bag.

          • Salmo says:

            “I think he is a good candidate and frankly his job will be only to sign bills or have his vetoes overridden.”

            That’s not exactly true. The governor appoints all of the state boards that ultimately run (almost) all of the state agencies. If you want to see dysfunction in government, wait until you see a democratic governor (and democratic-appointed state boards) trying to run state agencies while in a pissing match with a Republican supermajority that holds the purse strings to said agency and can pass laws intended to tie its hands, policy-wise.

            Carter has already shown that he’s willing to put politics over policy given his veto of the budget last year, so I have no doubt that he’d engage in some Obama-style trolling of the other side to try to force Republican legislators to choose between slashing an agency and protecting their right flank or taking an excessively moderate/liberal stance that protects the votes in the center. Either way, it’s not a good way to make government function efficiently and effectively. State employees will generally be cowering under their desks just trying not to get caught in the middle of the poo-flinging.

          • Jon Richards says:

            I’ll agree with Salmo here. In terms of the power and influence held by the governor, Georgia is number 5 compared to all other states. He sets the agenda in many ways.

            A friend of mine who works for one of the state agencies is very appreciative of how Deal has broken down some of the silos between agencies that made state government less efficient. This person is extremely worried that all the progress made in this area will be lost should Jason Carter win the governorship.

            • WeymanCWannamakerJr says:

              What do the top 4 states have, dictatorships or royal sovereigns? Does this power and influence rating stem from his implied constitutional limits or his real limits considering all branches of state government and agency heads are Republicans? This Governor has obviously been able to appoint, hire, and fire at every level, both directly and indirectly. Including Ethics Commission staff. Without question a Governor of a differing party from the legislative and judicial branches would see more limitations on the superpowers wielded by Sonny Perdue and Gov. Deal.

  6. John Konop says:

    I sound like a broken record…..The GOP needs to sound more like Casey Cagle message….not the burn down the house message….Guys like Bob,, need to open up thier eyes to a changing world….

  7. Bobloblaw says:

    The GOP does need to stop nominating CEOs. People hate their bosses. This is why I voted for Kingston both times

  8. Will Durant says:

    I still expect a runoff and January is an eon away when measured in political time. Still time for throwing around a lot of SuperPAC money and poo flinging, and yes, I realize that was redundant.

  9. Harry says:

    What is important and gives me hope is, there are an awful lot of broken glass Republicans this cycle. Polls can’t measure that very well.

  10. A 51% female weighting, huh? The lowest female vote that Georgia has ever seen in the modern era is 54%.

    And a 27% black electorate projection? Just days ago SurveyUSA had it at 30%.

    So, anyone want to venture a guess as to what SurveyUSA’s head to head ballot numbers would become with a change to more accurate weighting?

    Just using SurveyUSA’s own raw data numbers…

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