In New Landmark Poll, Governor and Senate Races Are Tied

WSB TV published the results of a new poll showing the Senate and Governor races are tied. David Perdue and Michelle Nunn each have 46% of the electorate, with 4% either voting for the Libertarian Amanda Swafford or are undecided. Nathan Deal and Jason Carter are also tied at 45% apiece, with 5% either undecided or voting for Libertarian Andrew Hunt.

The poll was conducted by Landmark Communications, which throughout the general election cycle has assumed a higher percentage of black and female voters than other pollsters. That methodology has not changed for the current poll, which included 1,000 voters and has a margin of error of 3.1%.

Commenting on the Senate race, Landmark President Mark Rountree said,

David Perdue has made up significant ground against Michelle Nunn. There may have initially been some residual hard feelings from Kingston supporters after a very long primary and runoff season. They were slow to back Perdue. But over the past month Republicans solidified behind Perdue and now support him 87-5% over Nunn, up from 78-11% in August.

There is a major difference between men and women in the way they are voting for Senate,” said Rountree. “Female voters are voting for Nunn by a 10 point margin 51-41%, while male voters are voting for Perdue by a 12 point margin, 51-39%.

Rountree noted the gap between men and women in their support of the Deal Carter race:

Gov. Deal leads Sen. Carter among male voters by 12 points, 51-40%, while Carter holds an 11 point lead among women, 50-39%. There is a significant difference in how the genders will vote.

Both the Senate and Governor’s races are tightening, a trend seen in other recent polls. In Rountree’s opinion, recent polling showing very competitive races in the Governor and Senate races show that other pollsters have shifted the ratio of women and minorities that will vote in November closer to what Landmark has consistently predicted.

Of course, the only poll that counts is the election itself. Real voters will have a chance to weigh in beginning on Monday, and continuing through the November fourth election.

28 comments

  1. John Konop says:

    Advise is cheap, but if I was running thier campaigns I would do the following for Perdue and Deal:

    Perdue:

    1) Get off the repeal Obamacare….instead offer solutions…polls show only one third of voters want to repeal it….and it scares women ie gender gap I would bet the most…ie preexisting conditions, kids on plan till 25….are hot button negative issues when you bang on repeal Obamcare…..

    2) Use the Hawkish Nunn stance against her as reckless….

    3) Point out the hypocracy of the Nunn stance on outsourcing since she supports the policy…ie trade deals….talk about reforms….

    4) Talk about working with governor to fix transportation issues in metro Atlanta and Georgia…..a real plan…

    5) Talk about working with Governor Deal on job growth plans….ie the job eduction training initiatives by the governor…

    Deal:

    1) Use the above and promote the Casey Cagle style message in his campaign….

    2) Advertise on urban radio promoting the education jobs ie Cagle type message…

    3) Overall theme for both campaigns jobs, jobs….

    Just my 10 cents….

  2. Bobloblaw says:

    According to Landmark Perdue and Deal are doing something right. In Aug they trailed by 6. In Sep they trailed by 3. In Oct now a tie. That is what GHW Bush called Big Mo.

    So now it is official. Not a single poll has Nunn or Carter leading. And the Landmark trend is the wrong way for Dems.

    • John Konop says:

      You are a pro spin master…LOL….Months ago you claim Landmark poll is all wrong….all the polls have moved toward Landmark….And now you declare LansMark as the best poll to look at tends….LOL….

      • Bobloblaw says:

        ahhh no. I am saying ACCORDING to Landmark. The Dems here were ignoring all other polls focusing only on Landmark’s results showing Nunn and Carter head. Well now that cant even do that.

        For the record I dont believe Nunn and Carter were ever up 6. Ever.

        Landmark has moved in the direction of all the other polls, not vice versa.

        Perdue and Deal have gained about 1 point per week since late Aug ACCORDING to Landmark. Far from a static race, which all other polls show, with a smal but persistent GOP lead, ACCORDING to Landmark Perdue and Deal have Big MO. Three more weeks and the GOP will be closing in a winning without a runoff…..ACCORDING to Landmark.

        • John Konop says:

          I am sure Mark appreciates you declaring Landmark the poll to watch….I am sure the Dems appreciate your blindness to the changing voter patterns for women and increase in minorities…If Nunn is polling this high with the current above factors….How will Hillary poll 2 years latter? The problem with the GOP is older white guys….giving advise….

          • Bobloblaw says:

            The Dem ticket is the best ticket probably since Zell Miller in 1990s. So in twenty years. The GOP ticket is weak. Kingston would have been the best candidate.

            So the GOP ticket is the weakest in 20 years and the Dem ticket is the strongest in 20 years and the best the Dems can do is tie (while giving up a 6 point lead 6 weeks ago).

            Chances are in 2018, the Dem ticket wont be as strong and Cagle or Kemp will be stronger than Deal.

            Right now advantage GOP with the very likely possibility of a runoff. But GOP leads on election night even if they do get shy of 50% plus 1.

      • Will Durant says:

        Bob just needs to get some ruby slippers to accessorize his ruby red glasses. He gave up the rose-tinted ones long ago.

  3. Will Durant says:

    Sister kissing, followed by two runoffs and attack ads throughout the holidays. Attack ads mostly sponsored by “non-profits” whose contributors we will only discover a year or so down the road, if then. And then we wonder why more people don’t participate in the political process.

  4. jh says:

    I think Mark’s numbers have been the most realistic, and without them, NRSC wouldn’t even be continuing to pour numbers if they kept drinking the InsiderAdvantage koolaid. Given a normal race, Jason/Michelle would probably lose, but the Democrats are working extremely hard with the ground game, while Perdue and company push out ad nauseum platitudes.

    212,000+ registered this year, plus 40K unprocessed by New Georgia Project. Let’s say 150k of them vote. That leaves 100k to go, if we’re looking at Deal vs Barnes margin in 2010.

    They have 700k Obama voters that didn’t vote in 2010 to remind.

    Of course, if Georgians are as unmotivated as the rest of the nation, then the polls are the polls. I think Nunn/Carter will surprise, ala Michael Bennett in 2010 or Heitkamp in 2012.

    • Bobloblaw says:

      Bennett was a quasi incumbent running against a guy who said homosexuality is a choice in a state where the Dems had been on a strong run since 2006. GA is not CO, even if Gardner does win.

      ND is a retail politics state where the Dem had previously won a statewide race. In ND and SD the winner is the one who shakes the most hands. Something impossible to do in a state of 10 million people.

  5. godsgift says:

    Gov. Deal leads Sen. Carter among male voters by 12 points, 51-40%,
    51-40 is 11 not 12. maybe they should use a calculator for such difficult math.

        • godsgift, thanks for posting what is essentially a question to keep everyone accountable.

          Bobloblaw is correct on the point above. The reason that we stated a 12 point margin on our media release, vs. 11 point margin, was due to rounding.

          Gov. Deal carries male voters by 50.9% to Sen. Carter’s 39.3%. It’s actually a 11.6% margin, which rounds to 12. But based on what was available in Jon’s post, the question is understandable.

          Also to clarify for folks: we don’t take a “we’re right and someone else is wrong” point of view regarding the overall polling numbers. We have simply taken issue with some of the weighting of gender and race in the Georgia polls and drawn logical conclusions how they could impact polling numbers if they were more accurately reflected in some of the national pollsters’ surveys (based both upon historical turnout and today’s actual voter registration numbers).

          I sincerely thank those of you here, Jon, jh, John K, and many more who have taken the time to read these points here and elsewhere with an open mind and then articulate them. It’s really time for the media and all Georgia politicos on all sides of the ballot to step up and acknowledge that there is a casual degree in the attitude of “we will win anyway.”

          Georgia is not as Red as some political operatives think…and frankly I believe the Governor knows this, while some of the political folks may not.

          Georgia was the second-weakest state in the entire US that was won by Romney … Romney took 53% of the vote here, and only North Carolina was closer at 51%. This, despite the fact that the national Dems really didn’t compete here as hard as elsewhere.

          Our Governor carried 53% of the vote in 2010 — a year in which practically every Republican and true swing voter in Georgia voted for the GOP slate, just like they did across the country. It was a watershed year. It was as a high-water mark for the GOP nationally. 53% isn’t that far from 49.9% when you’ve actually had to govern and make tough, tough financial and political decisions for four years during a national economic downturn, and doubly so when the demographics of your state have significantly changed with the addition of nearly a quarter million more net Democratic registered voters than Republican ones (2010 to 2014).

          Thanks for reading, listening, commenting, snarking, and all the rest. Anyone who has questions or comments is free to email me at [email protected].

          • 53% in 2010 is a great point. R’s got 58% in Michigan, 55% in Pennsylvania. Those guys are either in trouble or going down in flames, and they did better than Deal.

  6. jh says:

    http://landmarkcommunications.net/oct-11-2014-landmark-releases-latest-poll-of-georgia-voters/
    In the latest poll, Nunn has 29% white vote, while Carter has 30%. It’s polling for black voters (29% of electorate in this poll), 83% Nunn, 9% Perdue.

    If we model those numbers more traditionally, let’s say 95% Nunn, it becomes Perdue 45.8, Nunn 49.2, Swafford 3 (I took a point from her and gave to Perdue), 2% undecided. Nunn then needs 40% of the undecideds to avoid a runoff. That’s all based off 29% black turnout, and Nunn getting 29% of the white vote.

    A lot of turnout estimates (28-30% black) are based off Georgia’s current demographics and its growth, not taking into consideration Democratic mobilization efforts.

    http://www.myajc.com/news/georgia-voter-maps-2014/
    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/07/us/politics/democrats-aim-to-make-2014-more-like-2012-and-2008.html
    212,000+ new voters have been added since March this year, and it doesn’t include the 40,000 unprocessed. If 150k of these newly registered were to have voted in 2010, the black vote would have been 32% not 28%. There is also an effort to engage (600,000) voters that vote in presidential elections but not midterm elections. I’m sure InsiderAdvantage is anticipating this too, hence why their last poll had 32% black. Of course, they can’t drag anyone to the polls, and maybe their efforts will be for naught.

  7. MikeS says:

    What most should agree with. It will be close, probably a run off and lots of money will be spent by the campaigns in the next month maybe two.

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