Gallup Predicts Runoffs in Georgia

If you’re one of those “glass half full” types who hopes their Gubernatorial / Senatorial candidate wins without a runoff election, you might want to hold your horses. If recent Gallup Polls are anything to go by, Georgia could be headed into a runoff this election cycle. From the Gallup article:

With two hotly contested seats on the ballot in Georgia this midterm election, four in 10 Georgians (40%) identify as independent, while the rest are closely split between Republicans (27%) and Democrats (28%). Moreover, nearly as many Georgia independents say they lean toward the Democratic Party (12%) as say they lean Republican (15%), resulting in a tight party division in the state.

In addition to the even split among Party lines, Gallup also estimates a recent rise in ideological polarization among Georgians.

Conservatives have held at least a 24-point edge over liberals in years past, but the lead has diminished to 19 points this year. Though this is still a significant ideological advantage, it reinforces that Georgia’s political competitiveness has tightened this year amid these crucial elections.

Moreover, Gallup also recommends that the Georgia Republican Party would be better served if it’s statewide candidates ran on issues instead of merely an Anti-Obama platform.

While Republicans typically use low approval ratings against the president, and against those who share his Democratic affiliation, their attacks on the president’s performance might not be as fruitful in the Peach State as it is in other states with close Senate races. Though Obama is unpopular with Georgians, his approval is on par with that of the 50-state average, and therefore might not be the most convincing case to make against a Democratic candidate.

But of course, one could argue that Peach Pundit contributor Jason Pye is way ahead of Gallup when he made a very similar prediction in his recent article on Rare. Pye recommends that David Perdue should go on the offensive with issues like ObamaCare in order to re-engage and re-energize Republicans and Republican leaning Independents instead of just sticking to ad hominem attacks on Nunn for her affiliations with the President and Harry Reid.

13 comments

  1. NoTeabagging says:

    Can we get a poll that actually asks what voters want, not just one about political parties? I appreciate the reality checks quoted above.

    I’m not sure what the interpretation of “lean Republican” or “lean Democratic” was expected to reveal.
    Were they asking do you vote more for that party? or Do you support more of their platform? Do you lean away from an offensive party? or do you lean toward supporting a positive party?

  2. jh says:

    In a poll where Carter was behind 5, Nunn behind 2, I found these questions very interesting. 25% of GOP supports minimum wage increase.
    http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/10/perdue-edges-nunn.html

    Q35 Would you support or oppose raising the
    minimum wage to $10 an hour?
    Support ………………………………………………….. 56%
    Oppose ………………………………………………….. 38%
    Not sure …………………………………………………. 6%

    Q36 Georgia is eligible to receive new federal
    funding to pay for health care through the
    Medicaid program. Do you think the Georgia
    state government should accept this federal
    funding to expand Medicaid coverage, or not?
    Think it should…………………………………………. 56%
    Think it should not……………………………………. 33%
    Not sure …………………………………………………. 11%

    • Bobloblaw says:

      Ask them if they support raising taxes once the federal money for Medicaid runs out. It is surprising that only 56% want free ice cream and ponies.

      • John Konop says:

        As I have posted many times…that is not the only choice….I have put up real cost savings idea that would make it work……and I am sure many have other ideas…..but instead politicos on both sides would rather fire up the base on yelling about death panels and throwing grandma over the cliff than solve anything….ie back to solutions….

        • Bobloblaw says:

          Money runs out in a few years. There is no bending of the cost curve associated with expanding Medicaid.

          Expanding Medicaid eligability without expanding providers will only result in shortages and lines.

          • John Konop says:

            Wrong!

            1) Use dial doc for non emergency care for first line

            2) Use VA drug pricing 60 percent less for government employees, Medicare/ Medicaid and Obamacare

            3) Put phone number in emergency room for non emergency care for dial a doc

            4) Have people fill out living wills… 60 percent of healthcare spent on last 6 months of a persons life….and many do not want the care…

            5) Decriminalize marijuana it would increase employment, decrease government healthcare in legal system and it would lower the cost of drugs for cancer patients with better results.

            This is just a start….the above would materially bend cost curve without even more ideas….I am into solutions not talking points…..

  3. Bobloblaw says:

    “”Though Obama is unpopular with Georgians, his approval is on par with that of the 50-state average, and therefore might not be the most convincing case to make against a Democratic candidate.””

    Well according to Gallup’s most recent poll that is a whopping 39% approval rating. I actually think Obama might have a slightly higher approval rating in GA. Blacks love Obama no matter what. It is states like IA and NH where Obama’s approval ratings have fallen the most. MS is the state where Obama’s approval rating hasnt budged since Jan 2009.

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