Public Policy Polling is out with updated polling numbers on the Georgia races, and all along the line, voters appear to favor the Republican ticket. Governor Deal leads Jason Carter by a 46% to 41% margin, with Andrew Hunt taking 4%. If these numbers were to hold, Deal would win without a runoff. In the Senate race, David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn by two points, 45% to 43%, with 5% voting for Amanda Swafford. Not only is that poll within the margin of error, but it indicates a January runoff, which polling predicts Perdue would win by 3 points.
The GOP is also ahead in down-ballot races. Casey Cagle leads Connie Stokes by a 48/37 margin in the Lt. Governor’s race, with 16% undecided. In the Attorney General race, Sam Olens leads Greg Hecht, 45% to 36% with 19% undecided. The Agriculture Commissioner race between Gary Black and Chris Irvin has the same 45/36/19 split in favor of the incumbent, as does the race for Labor Commissioner between Mark Butler and Robbin Shipp.
In the three way race for Insurance Commissioner, incumbent Ralph Hudgens leads with 41% of the projected vote, followed by Liz Johnson with 34% and Ted Metz with 10%. 15% are undecided. In the Secretary of State race, Brian Kemp leads Doreen Carter 48/39, with 13% undecided. And in the State School Superintendent race, Richard Woods has a 46% to 40% lead over Valarie Wilson, with 14% undecided.
None of the candidates break the 50% approval threshold a month out from the election.
The poll of 895 likely voters was taken between October 2nd and October 5th. It has a 3.3% margin of error. This poll appears to better estimate the likely turnout of women and black voters than other recent tallies. 28% of the sample is African American, and 53% of respondents are women. While both numbers might be a bit low, they are more in line with recent voter turnout results.
There are plenty of other questions and answers in the extensive poll, including a look at some of the possible 2016 presidential candidates. Based on this poll, only Jeb Bush would defeat Hillary Clinton in a hypothetical matchup: