Rasmussen: Deal Up By 6.

From Rasmussen:

Republican Governor Nathan Deal has pulled to his largest lead yet over Democratic challenger Jason Carter in his bid for reelection in Georgia.

Deal now picks up 49% of the vote to Carter’s 43% in the latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Georgia Voters. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while six percent (6%) are undecided

Poll was of 1000 likely Georgia voters. The candidates were neck and neck according to Rasmussen in July and September.

According to the polling details (only available with a subscription) the demographics of the survey were:

Men: 49%
Women: 51%

18-39: 24%
40-64: 54%
65+: 22%

White: 66%
Black: 24%
Other: 10%

Republican: 37%
Democrat: 35%
Other: 28%

Discuss.

10 comments

  1. David C says:

    If you actually think the black vote is going to be four points below what it was in 2010, I think you’ll be in for a surprise on Nov 4.

  2. WesleyC says:

    David’s right. The assumption that black voters will comprise 24% of the electorate is indefensible. Rasmussen needs to explore a new line of work I think.

    • FranInAtlanta says:

      Unless I am mistaken, Rasmussen left Rasmussen polling after the 2012 election – maybe before.

      • therightdirection says:

        Yes, this result is surprising. With the new leadership at Rasmussen, their polling has skewed left–a 180 degree change.

  3. Jon Richards says:

    Last week’s Rasmussen Senate poll showed Perdue ahead by four points. But it was weighted with a 52% female and 26% black vote. This would appear to go against recent voting trends, which has the female vote between 54 and 55%, and the black vote between 29% and 30%.

    Weight it based on recent turnout, and Nunn would be leading by three points instead.

  4. Bull Moose says:

    The black vote percentage in this poll is very low and thus, I’m not sure how anyone can really accept this poll as having much credibility. I’m of the opinion that the black vote will be 28% or higher.

  5. What is up with 10% other?

    The last time the electorate was 24% black, Sonny cruised to a 58% re-election victory. Taylor only got 38%. Carter ahead of that, Deal struggling to get to 50 even in a state that looks more like Cobb County than one that also contains DeKalb and Fulton.

  6. Cowabunga says:

    It may be close but when all of the corruption, the vote suppression scandal and the realization that we’re all paying dearly for their bastardization of the meaning of integrity, hopefully he will lose.

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