A new poll released today by 11 Alive shows a tightening election, both at the top of the ticket and down ballot.
In the race for Governor, Democrat Jason Carter leads Republican incumbent Nathan Deal by a point, 45%-44%, with Libertarian Andrew Hunt taking 4% of the vote. In the Senate race, it’s also a one point margin, with Republican David Perdue leading Democrat Michelle Nunn 46% to 45% and Libertarian Amanda Swafford picking up 4%.
The biggest change from a similar poll two weeks ago occurs in down-ballot races. In the race for Secretary of State, a seventeen point lead by incumbent Brian Kemp over Democratic challenger Doreen Carter has dropped to two points. A twelve point lead by Richard Woods in the State School superintendent race has also dropped to two points against challenger Valarie Wilson.
The poll’s margin of error is 4.3%, so all of the above results are within the margin of error.
But looking at the crosstabs, the sample appears to favor Republicans, with a 50-50 split between men and women voters, and only a 27% black vote. Women normally vote in higher percentages than men, and the 27% black vote is on the low side of many other estimates.
The percentages also vary from the poll taken two weeks ago. Here are the crosstabs from that poll. Black voting strength is down by two points, and female voting strength is down by a point.
With the usual disclaimers, what should be made of this poll? Is bobloblaw right? Tell us.