Connie Stokes is the longer shot of the two races. Casey Cagle is at 51% while Stokes polls at 40%. Eleven points is a landslide but a two-term incumbent barely breaking 51% is a potentially ominous sign.
Going down the ballot, Sam Olens only leads by eight points over Greg Hecht–49% to 41%.
So could the two Democratic challengers win? I’d say it’s unlikely.
Stokes and Hecht have barely campaigned, if they’ve campaigned at all (I saw a third-rate pamphlet for Connie Stokes outside of Octane the other day so I know she’s “active”. I can’t recall anything from Hecht). There’s been little negative coverage of either incumbent, although that’s changed a lot lately for Olens, possibly explaining his numbers. And this is just one poll, a long ways out from the election.
However, if Michelle Nunn or Jason Carter win, it will be because of massive Democratic turnout and a shift in Georgia’s political landscape. Right now, both Stokes and Hecht seemed best positioned in the polls to ride those coattails.