WaPo Shows 91% Chance For GOP Win In #GASEN, 51% Chance Of DEM Control Of US Senate

The Washington Post posted their latest Election Lab predictions on who will control the US Senate in the next Congress, and the tea leaves don’t spell a victory for Republicans. A few key races have been moving in a way that makes it more favorable for Democrats to retain control of the upper chamber: Colorado has moved more favorably for the Democratic incumbent and the Republican incumbents in both Iowa and Kansas have been moving in a more unfavorable manner. In fact, they make note of how the Kansas race wasn’t even on the radar just a few weeks ago and now Republican Senator Pat Roberts has a 68% chance of winning.

There is good news for Republican David Perdue as the Election Lab has rated Georgia more of a “sure thing” by giving Perdue a 91% chance of winning.

Of course, prognosticating comes with its own set of challenges since it can and does change on a daily basis. They cite other sources that contradict their own predictions, but like everything else…your mileage may vary. Interpret your set of tea leaves in the comments.

7 comments

  1. Ralph says:

    While as pointed out such predictions and polls change on a daily bases, it appears as of today the control of the Senate hinges on Republicans needing to win a majority of Alaska, Kansas, Iowa, Louisiana, and North Carolina – all very close.

      • Bobloblaw says:

        ????? GOP will win SD, WV, MT, AR, AK and LA. There that is six. Polling the last two days shows the left was a tad too early in popping the champaign bottles. Gardner up in CO in two polls. Ernst up in one poll in IA and tied in another. Roberts leading in KS.

        Bottom line. I’d rather be Ernst in IA than Nunn in GA.

  2. Dave Bearse says:

    I read the gold standard, Nate Silver, had the Senate GOP with a 62% probability, but that info may be a little stale.

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