Latest Poll Has #GAGov and #GASen in a Virtual Tie

September 2, 2014 17:39 pm

by Jon Richards · 36 comments

A statewide poll commissioned by WRBL, the Columbus Ledger-Enquirer and PMB Broadcasting shows the Democratic and Republican candidates im Georgia’s marquee Governor and Senate races are in statistical ties. In the Governor race, Nathan Deal leads Jason Carter, 43.6% to 41.5%. Libertarian Andrew Hunt trails with 6.6% of the vote. In the Senate race, Michelle Nunn leads David Perdue, 44.7% to 43.1%. Amanda Swafford, the Libertarian, has a 7.4% share of the likely voters surveyed.

In the State School Superintendent race, Republican Richard Woods leads Democrat Valarie Wilson, 46.9% to 43.2%. 9.9% remain undecided.

The poll also covered the three constitutional amendments voters will decide on in November. For the first amendment, which would cap the state income tax rate at its current six percent, voters are in favor by a 57% to 21% margin, with 22% undecided. Voters also appear to favor the second constitutional amendment, which would increase penalties for certain reckless driving and place any funds received in the Spinal Injury Trust Fund. On that question, 51% say yes, 29% say no, and 20% are undecided. For the third amendment, which would continue the tax exemption for student housing owned by the Board of Regents, even if that housing was run by private operators, voters approve by a 59% to 23% margin.

The automated poll was conducted from August 24th to August 25th, and has a 2.47% margin of error. Hat tip to Daniel Malloy for pointing us to the results

{ 36 comments… read them below or add one }

John Konop September 2, 2014 at 6:34 pm

Not buying the Libertarian votes numbers….

MikeS September 2, 2014 at 6:45 pm

Libertarians always poll higher than their eventual general election vote.

Bobloblaw September 2, 2014 at 9:26 pm

Yes, Id say about 3-4% but still a runoff in both races as of now.

Bobloblaw September 2, 2014 at 9:25 pm

This poll is much better then the discredited Landmark poll. Id say the chances of a runoff are quite high. If fact there will be two Senate runoffs. LA and GA.

Ed September 3, 2014 at 8:37 am

“Discredited” by you doesn’t mean anything. Just FWIW.

Bobloblaw September 2, 2014 at 9:34 pm

What is important is that neither Nunn or Carter are doing any better than past Democrats. It is the GOP is doing much worse. The undecideds must be people who normally vote GOP.

John Konop September 3, 2014 at 6:42 am

The wild card in the race is the Tea Party vote….,if it does go libertarian which I do not buy….it will hurt the GOP. Without the above as i said for awhile I think this is a 4 to 6 point race for the GOP. The trend is clear…..by 2020 with the demographic changes this will be a purple state unless the GOP gets it together….2016 if Hillary is on the ticket she could have heavy coatails with extra women vote coming out like Obama had with Afriacn Amercicans…..Issues like birth control, abortion, equal pay, immigration….will become cornerstone issues….The GOP needs to readjust policy…..or lights out….The party should cut pragmatic deals to get the issues off the table….The female vote is trending bad as well….does not take a rocket scientist to figure out the 16 strategy for Hillary and the Dems….If Nunn loses….she will be back in 16 in a statewide race….if somehow she wins…..the Dems will be looking for statewide women to run….not sure who have no clue who is on the bench…..GOP will start losing the business community ie money with the anti business wing of the party with policies on infastructure, education…….GOP needs a wake call and to control the extremist…..

Bobloblaw September 3, 2014 at 9:46 am

Readjust its policy how? Blacks don’t vote GOP no matter what. That is what’s driving the changes in GA. GA won’t be a purple state. It will go right from red to blue. We aren’t taking Ohio we’re talking VA. If Nunn loses she won’t be back.

John Konop September 3, 2014 at 10:09 am

It is not just the black vote the GOP is having problems with women as well…..

Policy:

Birth control saves money especially among the less well off…..this is a simple policy fix…..

Immigration culture war BS….hurts the party with minorities….cut a rational deal….speak out against the Phil Kent style politics……

End war on drugs…..help with young vote and economy….

Support moving minimum wage to livable wage in trade for a tax cut at the same amount we save in welfare.

Support rational infrastructure spending

Just a start……the above would move the margins enough…..you do not 100% support just enough in roads to not have poor ratios….

Bobloblaw September 3, 2014 at 10:25 am

Youre talking about other states where that might work. If the GOP in GA is getting 75% of the white vote, how much more can they get? Some of your proposals I agree with, some I dont. But youre assuming that as the GOP “reforms” it picks up voters without losing any, or at least they lose less than they pick up. There is a reason the GOP takes the positions you mention. They are popular with a not insignificant portion of the electorate. Moving left will result is the GOP losing voters on the right.

John Konop September 3, 2014 at 10:28 am

In all due respect I think you are living in an echo chamber……

Bobloblaw September 3, 2014 at 2:15 pm

The GOP cannot win without or with the Tea Party types. You think if the TP makes up 15% of the electorate and they walk away from the GOP, that the GOP can make that up with minorities or women?

John Konop September 3, 2014 at 2:47 pm

First I do not think the GOP would have a 15% loss via the policies I suggested…In fact like you some they support some they could live with…..I think the wins would out weigh the losses…..This was the same calculation Clinton made with the left with his “Sister Soldier” moment, welfare reform…..He won more support than he lost from left…..BTW I am not a big Clinton fan….way overrated…..thought Bush senior was a way better president….

FormerRepub September 3, 2014 at 12:56 pm

You’re also overlooking the fact that a growing number of women simply do not like the Republican party!

Bobloblaw September 3, 2014 at 2:14 pm

Yet Romney got 60% of the white vote. The highest any non-incumbent has ever received. Romney won white women, young white people age 18-30.

The GOP has a demographic problem not an ideological problem. That is something new in American politics. At least at the national level. Being ideologically out of touch as the GOP was in 1964, or the Dems were from 1968-88, is not a huge problem. Simply change your positions. Being demographically out of touch is a huge problem because minorities DONT VOTE GOP NO MATTER WHAT. Dont believe me? Look at the 1998 Gubenatorial election in IL. Where the Dem was to the right of the GOPer on every issue. Yet the Dem still won the minority vote. Whites switches allegiance for that election, but blacks and hispancis didnt.

Look at CA since 1998. There have been enough GOPers who have barely cracked 40% we can begin to draw conclusion. From far rightwingers like Dan Lungren and Bill Simon to liberal GOPers like Matt Fong and Able Maldonado (minorities BTW). Yet there is no difference in the vote percentage. Going from white right wing guy to hispanic liberal gets you NOTHING.

Just ask yourself what the USA will look like as a one party state where voting is based on tribal loyalty.

sogabuzz September 3, 2014 at 2:34 pm

Land of Mad Max….

Bobloblaw September 3, 2014 at 12:58 am

My understanding is that runoffs for Gov and Sen are on different days

Jon Richards September 3, 2014 at 5:48 am

Correct on the different runoff dates. The runoff for Governor (and any other non-Federal elections) will be on Tuesday, December 2nd. The runoff for Senate (and other Federal elections would be on Tuesday, January 6th. That would be after the new congress convenes.

Ed September 3, 2014 at 8:37 am

Why is there a difference but more importantly, why is our federal election after the new congress convenes? That would hurt our delegation’s seniority.

Jon Richards September 3, 2014 at 11:09 am

The reason is because that’s what a Federal judge decreed had to happen. The Justice Department was concerned that overseas voters might not have enough time to receive their ballots, vote, and get them returned to their elections office in the four weeks we have had in the past between the primary and a runoff. A judge decided that nine weeks would do the trick.

That’s why the primary was held in May, while the runoff was in July. And should a runoff be needed for the Senate race, it would be in January, since we can’t make Election Day happen any earlier. Georgia decided to keep the non-federal runoff a month later rather than waiting until January likely to allow a transition period should the governorship (or other office) change hands.

I do not know how a late runoff would affect Senate seniority.

Charlie September 3, 2014 at 11:12 am

Let’s not forget the consent agreement from SOS Kemp.

Will Durant September 3, 2014 at 11:15 am

Perhaps the Feds should pay for the extra expense then. This is further evidence that we should go to a non-partisan primary system. Two voting days max and without having to structure in runoffs the time periods could stay well within the conventional ones.

xdog September 3, 2014 at 1:49 pm

Didn’t gopers beat up the donks pretty bad over offshore votes back in Gore/Bush recount days? My recollection is those votes tilted heavily goper.

In a close election today offshore votes–servicemen, workers, students, expats–could make the difference and gopers might have a different view of Judge Jones.

Bobloblaw September 3, 2014 at 2:20 pm

Personally I like the CA system. Top two regardless of partisan affiliation. Hold on primary day. But rules like LA not CA. If anyone clears 50%, they win the office outright (in CA they dont). It might get rid of some of the useless incumbents like Lewis and Johnson.

The GOP should definitely do this is some states where the LP has cost them seats in the past like MT and NV.

George Chidi September 3, 2014 at 4:18 pm

Say goodbye to candidates like Jody Hice as well. Jungle primaries take out extremists on both sides of the spectrum.

A guy like Paul Broun loses to a moderate Republican if those are the two people on the ballot in November, facing a general election audience.

BriscoeDarlin September 3, 2014 at 6:53 pm

You won’t being saying goodbye to Hice until 2016 at the earliest.

Michael Silver September 3, 2014 at 9:05 am

Also remember the three different dates for the General Election which is intended to reduce lines and to comply with the Federal Judge’s court order:

Tuesday Nov 4 – For folks wanting to vote for Republicans
Wednesday Nov 5 – For folks wanting to vote for Democrats
Thursday Nov 6 7Am through 1PM – For folks wanting to vote for third parties, like Libertarian and Green

George Chidi September 3, 2014 at 11:56 am

This joke is never funny. In fact, telling people the wrong election day could be a crime, depending on the conditions.

Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 4, for everyone. Forgive me for being uptight.

Harry September 3, 2014 at 12:30 pm

Why so serious?

sogabuzz September 3, 2014 at 2:33 pm

Yeah. Lighten up.

BriscoeDarlin September 3, 2014 at 6:54 pm

Always so sensitive Chidi? And anybody dumb enough not to know when to vote deserves to be pranked.

John Konop September 4, 2014 at 9:56 am

In life we should walk in the shoes of others……Minorities and women have a history of fighting for rights to vote…I am against affirmative actions type solutions to the problem and do support voter ID as long as the laws do not take away rights of the individual……In the same breath I support voter access ideas…Yet to not understand the sensitivity and even make fun of it from the prospective of someone who has seen and felt the problem is insensitive at best.

Harry September 4, 2014 at 1:52 pm

The Dems assert that voter ID laws as presently constituted do take away rights of the individual, so I’m wondering if you agree with the present law or the Democrats.

John Konop September 4, 2014 at 2:02 pm

It depends on what is in the law. If we are talking about proper ID and or proof of person I am all for it. If we are talking about restricting same day registration, places people can vote, eliminating college students right to vote at the campus…..I am against it.

Harry September 4, 2014 at 2:13 pm

There are practical reasons why some restrictions are in place.

griftdrift September 5, 2014 at 8:49 am

Do tell!