NY Times Model Gives David Perdue an 88% Chance of Winning the #GASen Seat

Georgia Republicans got a boost today when this tweet came out from the New York Times election model, named Leo:

The graphic in the tweet show the results of some recent polling, and David Perdue’s steady or increasing polling advantage over Democrat Michelle Nunn caused the ratings change from Leaning Republican to Likely Republican. The model now gives Perdue an 88% chance of winning the seat currently held by Saxby Chambliss.

The Georgia ratings change also improved the model’s guess of the odds the GOP has of controlling the Senate. The model now thinks there is a 61% likelihood that Republicans will gain the seats needed for control.

According to the paper, “Although Ms. Nunn cannot yet be counted out, this latest polling suggests that window may be closing.”


  1. Ralph says:

    It’s not even September and she is down for an 8 count.

    Note the NYT rating for “Solid” is above a 95% chance. Like the liberal Washington Post rating.

    • Ed says:

      Dude, by no honest definition can Perdue or Nunn be called “outsiders” (whatever that means and whatever value it may hold). Please stop parroting that tripe.

  2. zedsmith says:

    Compared to the sound and fury of the republican primary— both these campaigns looks like boats stuck on sand bars. If Nunn doesn’t do something audacious in the next week or two, Purdue is going to coast to a victory with more cushion than we were all imagining a month ago.

    • WilliamFaulknerShakespeare says:

      Ahh, yes, “the sound and the fury,” quite an appropriate description.

      Talk, talk, talk: the utter and heartbreaking stupidity of words, especially those spoken by some with sound and fury.

      Fortune though – fortune brings in some boats that are not steered, and skill may bring in even more.

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