NY Times Model Gives David Perdue an 88% Chance of Winning the #GASen Seat

August 20, 2014 16:22 pm

by Jon Richards · 7 comments

Georgia Republicans got a boost today when this tweet came out from the New York Times election model, named Leo:

The graphic in the tweet show the results of some recent polling, and David Perdue’s steady or increasing polling advantage over Democrat Michelle Nunn caused the ratings change from Leaning Republican to Likely Republican. The model now gives Perdue an 88% chance of winning the seat currently held by Saxby Chambliss.

The Georgia ratings change also improved the model’s guess of the odds the GOP has of controlling the Senate. The model now thinks there is a 61% likelihood that Republicans will gain the seats needed for control.

According to the paper, “Although Ms. Nunn cannot yet be counted out, this latest polling suggests that window may be closing.”

Ralph August 20, 2014 at 5:52 pm

It’s not even September and she is down for an 8 count.

Note the NYT rating for “Solid” is above a 95% chance. Like the liberal Washington Post rating.

FranInAtlanta August 20, 2014 at 8:14 pm

To quote Glenn Reynolds at Instapundit, “Don’t get cocky!”

John Konop August 20, 2014 at 10:01 pm

Perdue is the perfect non office holder outside candidate for this time for the GOP….And he will buck trends in the future being an outsider…..

Ed August 21, 2014 at 7:34 am

Dude, by no honest definition can Perdue or Nunn be called “outsiders” (whatever that means and whatever value it may hold). Please stop parroting that tripe.

John Konop August 21, 2014 at 10:08 am

Perception is reality…like it or not…if you talk with people they do like the fact of them being non office holders….It is what it is…..

zedsmith August 21, 2014 at 1:42 am

Compared to the sound and fury of the republican primary— both these campaigns looks like boats stuck on sand bars. If Nunn doesn’t do something audacious in the next week or two, Purdue is going to coast to a victory with more cushion than we were all imagining a month ago.

WilliamFaulknerShakespeare August 21, 2014 at 8:32 am

Ahh, yes, “the sound and the fury,” quite an appropriate description.

Talk, talk, talk: the utter and heartbreaking stupidity of words, especially those spoken by some with sound and fury.

Fortune though – fortune brings in some boats that are not steered, and skill may bring in even more.

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