Deal, Perdue Ahead in New 11 Alive Poll

August 19, 2014 6:24 am

by Jon Richards · 35 comments

Atlanta’s Channel 11 is out with the results of new polling by SurveyUSA. In the Governor’s race, Nathan Deal leads Jason Carter 48%-39%, while Libertarian Andrew Hunt has 4% and 8% are undecided. In the Senate race, David Perdue leads Michelle Nunn 50%-41%, with 3% for Libertarian Amanda Swafford.

While the results mirror other recent polling, the details are interesting. In the Governor’s race,

Deal holds 83% of the Republican base. Carter holds 82% of the Democratic base. Independents break sharply Republican. Moderates provide some support for Carter, but at the current rate, it’s not enough to catch Deal. Libertarian Hunt takes more votes from the Republican Deal than he does from the Democrat Carter.

And in the Senate race,

Perdue’s lead comes entirely from men, where he leads by 19 points. While Atlanta votes Democrat, Northwest GA votes 2:1 Republican. South and East GA votes 5:4 Republican.

There’s a link to the poll’s crosstabs, and polling for down ballot races in the 11 Alive story.

{ 35 comments… read them below or add one }

John Konop August 19, 2014 at 6:55 am

As I said before I think Nunn and Carter are for the future not now….In 16 or 20 it could be a real horse race with trending demographics…..I do think Perdue outsider perception will keep him safe in the future as well…..I know many friends who voted for him via not being a politicians….

Bobloblaw August 19, 2014 at 7:10 am

I am not surprised that Nunn and Carter are losing, but that they arent polling better then any other Dem has the since 2002.

Bridget Cantrell August 19, 2014 at 9:21 am

Waaait a minute….

“The SurveyUSA poll of 419 likely GOP runoff voters has Kingston with 52 percent of the vote. Perdue has 41 percent. 7 percent are undecided.”

You can’t just change the names, 11Alive. You’re doing it wrong.

http://www.11alive.com/story/news/politics/2014/06/06/georgia-politics-senate-governor-perdue-kingston-carter-deal/10066211/

Chris Huttman August 19, 2014 at 9:29 am

Anyone who believes that black voters will only make up 26% of the electorate and that they will give between 16-17% of their votes to Deal/Perdue and that Hispanics will make up 7% and it will be a tossup…I am selling a bridge in Brooklyn.

Ed August 19, 2014 at 10:14 am

Have you heard her stances on the VRA? Yeah, I could see her losing black support.

Hispanics are hardly monolithic and have been swing voters in the past, too.

xdog August 19, 2014 at 11:19 am

Things are different now. Hispanic voters are enraged at goper inability/unwillingness to do nothing, or worse, about immigration reform. Even hispanics of Cuban descent, even older ones, are breaking to the donks.

Ed August 19, 2014 at 11:47 am

Yeah but to just reflexively dismiss the possibility out of hand is dumb. And to say that black voters can’t go from the traditional 90% Dem support to 83% with a candidate who hasn’t offered particularly positive stances toward major civil rights laws that are still on the books… come on.

John Konop August 19, 2014 at 11:59 am

I do think if a GOP candidate had their “sister soldier” moment like Clinton did it would help. This was key to Clinton getting enough white voters to win without alienating black voters. It seems many GOP candidates are scared to speak up against outrageous comments…instead they give cover. This drowns out any policy debate…..I get the fear thing works with older crowd….but it is dying strategy…..Under 40 crowd not into race bating, homo bashing…..yet they are against affirmative action. Instead of debating the policy it is all about ugly politics….This will be why it is only time until Georgia turns blue unless the GOP gets it together. You have increase in minorities, interracial marriage and a dying strategy…..

Chris Huttman August 19, 2014 at 1:10 pm

The problem with your “analysis” is the idea that any voter who is upset at her for not being sufficiently aggressive on the VRA is going to then vote for a Republican who holds the opposite position.

Ed August 19, 2014 at 1:13 pm

The point was that it isn’t a terribly huge drop for a candidate who offers few compelling reasons for black voters to support her.

xdog August 19, 2014 at 2:04 pm

I’ve been dumb before. But the reflex position is to think that current trends will change bar special circumstances.

In the last 3 presidential elections Hispanic support for the goper candidate has dropped from 40 percent for pinhead to 31 percent McCain to 27 percent for Romney. I expect support to crater in 2016.

Georgia isn’t the country and attitudes here don’t fully reflect attitudes elsewhere. I understand that. It’s also true that the Georgia Hispanic vote total is small although I bet there will be serious registration efforts this year. I just don’t see how gopers can count on doing better than gaining 1 vote in 4 or 5 given their failure to deal nationally with the issue most important to Hispanics.

Bobloblaw August 19, 2014 at 10:14 pm

Can anyone point to general election polls that have been wrong in the past 6-8 years?

Bobloblaw August 19, 2014 at 10:20 pm

You do realize that the black vote aside from presidential elections doesnt go 90-95% for the Dem candidate? An extreme example is in MS the GOP for Gov and Senate can usually get 25-35% of the black vote. But many GOP statewide candidates across the country do get 15% of the black vote. I know one influential black guy who will be voting for Deal…Kasim Reed. And I do think Reed’s lack of enthusiasm for Carter will drive down black turnout.

Chris Huttman August 20, 2014 at 12:41 pm

Ok well then let’s make a friendly wager. I count 71 DeKalb precincts in 2010 that gave Michael Thurmond more than 90% of the vote. Functionally these are 100% black precincts or about as close as you can get. I will wager $10 with you that Carter gets 90%+ in 71 or more DeKalb precincts this year.

What do you say?

Ralph August 19, 2014 at 9:31 am

Polls outside of 60 days before an election are dubious, but trends mean a lot. Low turnout elections like the primaries and runoff are too hard to pin down the likely voters, but not so much the general election.

It looks to be another landslide loss for GA state wide Democratic candidates just like the historical elections of the last decade as the campaign season really starts soon. The New York Times, Silver, Rothenberg, Sabato, and the Washington Post see Nunn fading: http://www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2014/senate-model/comparisons.html

saltycracker August 19, 2014 at 9:49 am

If Nunn keeps running the pitiful people of pillowtex ads (a misrepresentation) and patting old politicians on the porch (Daddy pandering) and Perdue goes positive on what he can do, it won’t be a contest.

Chris Huttman August 19, 2014 at 1:11 pm

Ask Mitt Romney how running the pitiful people worked out for Barack Obama.

saltycracker August 19, 2014 at 2:58 pm

Gotta love BO’s approval ratings. About like his golf handicap.

gcp August 19, 2014 at 4:01 pm

Romney won Georgia

Chris Huttman August 19, 2014 at 4:58 pm

And how many Presidential ads did the average voter in Georgia see?

gcp August 19, 2014 at 9:06 pm

They did not have to see any in-state ads. The rich man/ poor man narrative was played nation-wide but Georgians didn’t buy it.

gcp August 19, 2014 at 9:21 pm

Also fellow republicans played that rich man narrative against Romney in Ga. presidential primary.

Chris Huttman August 20, 2014 at 12:42 pm

Don’t stop believing!

Bobloblaw August 19, 2014 at 10:15 pm

well he lost GA by 7 in 2012 versus 5 in 2008

gcp August 19, 2014 at 10:44 pm

He lost the 2012 primary to Newtie; only because Newtie was considered the native son, not because of the rich guy stuff but Romney won Ga. in 2012 presidential election in spite of all rich guy stuff. That narrative didn’t work for Kingston and it doesn’t work for Nunn.

Chris Huttman August 20, 2014 at 12:43 pm

99% of Georgians who aren’t political junkies knew Romney was rich but they didn’t see any ads like this one. Secondly, Kingston didn’t have anything nearly as hard hitting, and Republican primary voters (and a few wealthy Democrats) are the only part of the electorate that holds venture capitalists in high regard instead of disdain.

Try getting out more often and asking common people what they think of big banks etc.

ricstewart August 19, 2014 at 11:00 am

The poll includes Lt. Governor, AG, Secretary of State, and Superintendent, but nothing about Insurance, Agriculture, or Labor commissioner. Wish we could see the races even further down the ballot.

Ed August 20, 2014 at 9:08 am

Why? Other than maybe School Super, there’s been no news about any of those races. People have no idea who they are and its a Generic D vs Generic R contest.

northside101 August 19, 2014 at 12:21 pm

Mixed review of the polling: Think they are right about 3-4% going Libertarian for the top two races (governor and US Senate) and probably not too far off in the 26% black electorate (there has never been a midterm election in Georgia where blacks made up 30% of the total voters). However, I agree with Chris it is not likely Deal will get mid teems among black voters. On other points, the 50 and over electorate may be a few points overrated in the poll, and ditto for income where it shows 40% of voters making $80,000+ a year. Rock-bottom (and I mean absolute rock bottom, not at all likely in either race, like worst-case scenario in November), would be 39% for Nunn (what Michael Thurmond got in his hopeless 2010 race against Isakson) and 38% Carter (Mark Taylor in 2007 against Perdue). Basically both Carter and Nunn should start out with a minimum 40% base, no matter what….

Chris Huttman August 19, 2014 at 1:12 pm

28% in 2010 and the eligible electorate overall is not as white as it was 4 years ago. So, the electorate is going to get less white and the turnout is going to be higher? Seems unlikely to me. Basically 26% is roughly what the 2006 election looked like.

Three Jack August 19, 2014 at 12:23 pm

Maybe if Nunn stopped with the attack ads – http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/08/19/michelle-nunn-goes-pillowtex-on-david-perdue/ – before actually introducing herself to GA voters, her poll numbers would rise. This is the latest from her campaign, another Pillowtex attack piece. Beat that dead horse lady!

Ed August 19, 2014 at 12:35 pm

If she had gone positive before introducing herself… so what, as opposed to the warm and fluffy ads/videos she did to introduce herself? http://www.michellenunn.com/news/youtube

Like, do you actually care about what you say or do you just type stuff and hope its true?

Chris Huttman August 19, 2014 at 1:13 pm

I think they don’t care. She’s already spent more money on positive tv ads then Perdue has including in his primary.

Three Jack August 19, 2014 at 1:41 pm

Type and hope Ed, but just can’t appeal to your sense of reality as one who refers to the Urban Institute as non-partisan.

Dave Bearse August 20, 2014 at 12:16 am

Yeah I’ve seen it a few times on TV, and it’s pretty base.

What struck me about it was that it featured all old white people out of Pillowtex work, a softer targeting of the demographic, and one directed at executive management/the rich, than Jesse Helms famous (or infamous) add where white hand crumble an employment rejection letter while the narrator intones about affirmative action: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIyewCdXMzkestit

Seemed to be pretty effective for Helms.