Polls, Polls, Polls

July 30, 2014 12:02 pm

by Eric The Younger · 10 comments

Vox Poluli has a new poll out and I would be derelict of my duty if I didn’t make some reference to skiers.

The quick and dirty? Perdue is up, and most definitely not in the statistical tie zone.

Vox Populi Polling released a new survey today that found Republican U.S. Senate candidate David Perdue holds a commanding 49 to 40 percent lead over his Democrat opponent Michelle Nunn, with 10 percent undecided. These results come in the midst of the accidental leak of an internal Nunn strategy memo, which will likely be used against her in television and radio ads.

“Our survey results show that David Perdue holds a commanding lead over Michelle Nunn after his recent primary victory,” said Vox Populi Pollster Brent Seaborn. “This is good news for Perdue who will likely see an uptick in his numbers after Republicans capitalize off of Nunn’s recent misfortune.”

For more details, check them out here. Just once, I wish these would come with a .dat file so I could play with the numbers in Stata.

{ 10 comments… read them below or add one }

John Vestal July 30, 2014 at 12:31 pm

Ok, admit it…

Who else heard Mötley Crüe singing the headline?

Lawton Sack July 30, 2014 at 12:51 pm

Haha. I actually heard Johnny Cash singing it. (And it burns, burns, burns – From Ring of Fire)

Ken July 31, 2014 at 11:39 am

Well, I do now! :-)

Bridget Cantrell July 30, 2014 at 12:36 pm

Jack was ahead by a good margin also.

Michelle Nunn will be just fine, thank you.

Ed July 30, 2014 at 1:22 pm

Three tacos and a horchata says David wins.

Bridget Cantrell July 30, 2014 at 2:03 pm

I’ll take that bet all day.

Bobloblaw July 31, 2014 at 3:32 pm

No Dem has gotten more than 47% in the last few cycles in GA (Thurbert Baker aside). All the polls that have or had Nunn leading had her with the standard 44-47%. It was the GOP candidate that was under performing. What that means is the undecided voters are regular GOP voters. I still say wait 1-2 weeks and see what polls say then.

georgiahack July 30, 2014 at 1:24 pm

Is the same methodology as the Insider Advantage poll from a few weeks ago? ” 497 interviews were completed using automated telephone technology and 127 were conducted using mobile based survey tech”

xdog July 30, 2014 at 1:33 pm

Here’s some info on their proposed methodology from their launch party a few months ago. Sounds like a different approach to me, assuming they’re doing what they said they would.

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/04/gop-polling-firm-vox-populi-polling-mary-cheney-105850.html

Chris Huttman July 30, 2014 at 4:09 pm

It’s definitely an interesting approach. I’d be curious to see the crosstabs (at the very least) of interviews conducted using IVR vs the mobile based tech. 127 is a relatively small sample size and the problem with small samples sizes is they are likely to over-represent statistical anomalies. For example, I would not be surprised to see a higher percentage of African American Republicans represented in this type of poll than they actually make up in the electorate, which can skew the numbers.