That emerging Democratic majority in Georgia due to massive demographic shifts we’ve been talking about for more than a decade now still isn’t close.
At least, that’s what Real Clear Politics’ senior elections analyst predicts.
Yesterday, Sean Trende crunched some numbers using Nate Silver’s “Demographic Calculator” for GA, AZ and TX . (The reason for those three states and his conservative assumptions are explained in the post).
The numbers say 2048 is when Georgia will become a Democratic state again. If immigration doubles, the flip will take place in 2028.
I have to agree with him. As he points out, the PVI for Georgia changed very minimally from 2000 to 2012. Republicans have continued to win and add to their number of elected officials. Sometimes the races are closer than in the past but close only counts in horseshoes. There isn’t any real reason to replace the Republicans. By and large, things are going well here in Georgia, there haven’t been any truly major scandals (let’s see what happens with the Deal allegations) and most of the controversial legislation seems to be “controversial” only to people who would never vote Republican anyway.