Georgia Won’t Flip Until 2048, *Maybe* 2028

July 30, 2014 8:25 am

by Ed · 18 comments

That emerging Democratic majority in Georgia due to massive demographic shifts we’ve been talking about for more than a decade now still isn’t close.

At least, that’s what Real Clear Politics’ senior elections analyst predicts.

Yesterday, Sean Trende crunched some numbers using Nate Silver’s “Demographic Calculator” for GA, AZ and TX . (The reason for those three states and his conservative assumptions are explained in the post).

The numbers say 2048 is when Georgia will become a Democratic state again. If immigration doubles, the flip will take place in 2028.

I have to agree with him. As he points out, the PVI for Georgia changed very minimally from 2000 to 2012. Republicans have continued to win and add to their number of elected officials. Sometimes the races are closer than in the past but close only counts in horseshoes. There isn’t any real reason to replace the Republicans. By and large, things are going well here in Georgia, there haven’t been any truly major scandals (let’s see what happens with the Deal allegations) and most of the controversial legislation  seems to be “controversial” only to people who would never vote Republican anyway.

{ 18 comments… read them below or add one }

notsplost July 30, 2014 at 9:33 am

Big changes in politics tend to happen very fast, almost like a phase transition.

Things seem to be going along as they always have, and then … boom! You get a wave of people waking up and switching allegiances.

Like in the early part of the 2000’s when decades of democratic rule got vaporized in one election cycle or two.

Things seem placid now but let’s see what 2015 and especially 2016 brings.

therightdirection July 30, 2014 at 9:42 am

One thing mentioned in the article is that Silver’s estimate is based on 2012 turnout. I’m just not convinced turnout in 2016 will look like 2012.

And yeah, waves happen. This is typically due to events though, not a slight increase in the number of voters of a particular group.

Yeah I think I’ll stick with Trende’s analysis. Thanks though.

Bobloblaw July 31, 2014 at 3:38 pm

That is not correct. Big changes do not happen very fast. Go back and look at CO and VA in 2004. You can see the flip coming then even with a Bush win. Despite winning by an increased margin of 3 points nationally in 2004, Bush’s VA and CO performance was unchanged if not slightly worse. Meaning that both states moved to the Dems by 3 points.

In IL and CA you can see it coming as far back as 1984 and 1988. In 1976 and 80 both CA and IL overperformed for the GOP. In 1984 IL under performed and CA was like the national result. In 1988, GHW Bush carried IL and CA by 2 points despite an 8 point national victory. Both states were trending DEM as far back as 1984, but the GOPs huge margins in 1984 and 88 masked it. It wasn’t evident until 1992 that both states had flipped.

Chris Huttman July 31, 2014 at 6:03 pm

Georgia’s performance for Obama compared to 2008 was only about 0.4% worse than the similar slide in NC despite the fact that millions were spent in NC and nothing was spent here.

Train comin’

penguin July 30, 2014 at 9:37 am

I think your last point is right – Georgia will flip sooner. Because republicans will be in power. Thats enough. Someone needs to add statistics on flips based on how long a party can stay as the supermajority along with demographic changes and voter turnout saturation by demographic.

Ed July 30, 2014 at 9:39 am

Georgia had 150ish years.

Bobloblaw July 31, 2014 at 3:50 pm

Flipping for one cycle is not the same as a permanent flip. OH, IA flip back and forth based on issues, candidate quality etc. But CA flipped based on demographics. That is the flip we are talking about. I know if Carter and/or Nunn win it will be hailed as a new permanent Dem majority in GA, but it may not be. Anymore than if Braley beats Ernst in IA or Fitzgerald beats Kaisch is OH.

notsplost July 30, 2014 at 9:43 am

Absolute power always corrupts itself. The additional challenge we have is that both parties are hopelessly devoted to big money and could care less about the average man in the street.

If the Democrats were to embrace populism, take on the NSA, ditch the trade agreements and return to true progressive ideas, rather than just pander to the big business community, I suspect the transition would happen sooner.

Sadly they’d rather stay corrupted and out of power.

therightdirection July 30, 2014 at 9:53 am

Good point. It’s been really eye opening to see the self appointed standard bearer of populism–Senator Elizabeth Warren–go to bat for the Ex-Im Bank. Only small government conservatives (some establishment Reps) are calling it out for what it is–cronyism. Republicans need to embrace impartiality in the market and tax code. Be pro market, not pro business.

notsplost July 30, 2014 at 9:56 am

I am shocked at her shamelessness on the Ex-Im bank. I really had high hopes for Liz Warren, but it appears that she is just another typical partisan so blinded by hate of the other party that she cannot even see her own best interest.

One more reason I am voting mostly libertarian for the foreseeable future.

Chris Huttman July 30, 2014 at 10:06 am

If you increase the slider for national white percentage from 40% to 45% then Georgia flips…in 2016!

Also, NC a state which already “flipped” in 2008 and was very close in 2012 doesn’t “flip” until 2020 which seems a little ridiculous. And by the same metric, if you think a Democrat can’t win Georgia until 2048 based on this map, that means you also think a Democrat can’t lose Virginia every one of those years as well.

Anyone who would like to place a wager that a Democrat won’t win Georgia until 2048, or that a Republican will never win Virginia again, my book is open.

crisp31419 July 30, 2014 at 11:23 am

The 2028/2048 estimates rely on population numbers generated during the economic recession when Atlanta’s population stagnated due to the housing crisis and a lack of jobs. Now that the recovery is on, throngs of young professionals (including minorities) are again flocking to the city. Couple that with population losses experienced across rural south Georgia, and it’s easy to see how Democrats could get the edge by 2016. I think Nunn and Carter have to run flawless campaigns and Republicans have to stay home for them to have a shot this year, but that’s not totally out of the question.

Chris Huttman July 31, 2014 at 6:05 pm

Voters over the age of 65 are 77% white. Voters under the age of 30 are 47% white.

therightdirection August 1, 2014 at 1:34 pm

You assume that the percentage of voters of each race voting Democrat won’t change.

John Konop July 31, 2014 at 4:27 pm

The number one reason a business fails is the people in charge lie to themselves…..Think about it….If you really think Georgia is not facing a demographic issue in the next 10 years keep head in the sand….

saltycracker July 31, 2014 at 5:57 pm

Tips to flip Georgia faster
by Saul Alinsky

1) Healthcare – Control healthcare
2) Poverty – Increase the Poverty level as high as possible
3) Debt – Increase the debt to an unsustainable level.
4) Gun Control – Remove the ability to defend themselves
5) Welfare – Take control of every aspect of their lives (Food, Housing, and Income)
6) Education – Take control of what people read and listen to
7) Religion – Remove the belief in God from the Government and schools
8) Class Warfare – Divide the people into the wealthy and the poor –
(and various classifications other than individual)

seenbetrdayz August 1, 2014 at 7:17 am

I don’t think the GOP will be around that long. And I don’t say that with joy. If the GOP doesn’t pull its head out of its *** and stop fighting the wrong people (people who, you know, actually believe in limited government), then it will continue to fracture and cease to exist as a party.

Harry August 1, 2014 at 10:02 am

We may or may not agree on the specifics, but I agree with the thought. Sheep are easier to herd than cats.