Dueling Poll Numbers For #GASEN Race

July 25, 2014 14:39 pm

by Charlie · 27 comments

Per Lori Geary, Landmark Communications says Nunn has a slight advantage:

Per Rasmussen, Perdue has a slightly bigger advantage:

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Georgia Voters finds Perdue with 46% support to Nunn’s 40%. Four percent (4%) like another candidate in the race, and 10% are undecided.(To see survey question wording, click here.)

Feel free to argue over who is right in the comments, remembering it’s still a long, long way to November.

{ 27 comments… read them below or add one }

FoggyHighPoint July 25, 2014 at 2:45 pm

For some reason, I’m not inclined to believe any polls right now.

FranInAtlanta July 25, 2014 at 3:43 pm

There is a part of me hoping that we won’t be able to believe any for a l-o-n-g time.

saltycracker July 25, 2014 at 4:18 pm

If one thinks Obama and the Democrat led Senate has the U.S. on a good track and a leader in non-profits is just the tweak we need to keep it going, Nunn is your answer.

Chris Huttman July 25, 2014 at 4:30 pm

I want to see the Senate completely fail and be liquidated. Do you have any suggestions?

Dave Bearse July 25, 2014 at 7:29 pm

Constitutional Convention. It could take up the 16th and 17th amendments too.

Bridget Cantrell July 25, 2014 at 4:47 pm

Salty,

Let’s say we get a Republican majority in the Senate. So what? WHAT exactly do you think they’ll do with the power? For all the legislation that the Republicans b!tc# about, I certainly don’t see “Here Americans, support THIS instead.” Show me what to rally FOR, and I’ll be the first to grab my armor and suit up.

Chris Huttman July 25, 2014 at 4:53 pm

This is actually a great point – even as a Democrat I’m positive that Republicans/conservatives have ideas on broad topics such as the best way to run a healthcare exchange or expand Medicaid or reform the tax code or pick any issue. And I’m sure many of their ideas are better than mine! The problem is they’ve boxed themselves into a corner where any kind of compromise with Obama is almost literally a compromise with the devil and you know you learned in Sunday school that you don’t make a deal with the devil.

So even if I thought David Perdue was a skilled manager who could bring value to the Senate, 1) he does not have anywhere near the kind of leeway as a Senator he had as a CEO and 2) in what would do you think he could accomplish anything of value while Obama is still President (and unless things really change) or Hillary becomes President?

Chris Huttman July 25, 2014 at 4:55 pm

And look if you literally think Obama is as bad as the devil, then by all means vote for a Republican who will just oppose him 100%. But since I do not live in the same world as the people who change out the marquee at Mulligan’s (little Marietta reference for Bridget) even the most sane Republican with the best ideas has very little appeal to me at this moment in time.

Bobloblaw July 25, 2014 at 6:49 pm

Id say wait one week for a poll. Wait until any sour Kingston voters have some time to get over their loss and support Perdue.

Fact is in both polls, Nunn (and Carter) is polling about were Dems poll in GA. It is the GOP that is polling lower than what they usually get. That tells me the undecideds are GOP leaning. That favors Perdue.

Does anyone think a Carter/Perdue victory is possible. Personally as a conservative I am determined to keep Chambliss’ seat for the GOP. But for the Govs race, given the GOP supermajority, I wont be crying should Carter win.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 25, 2014 at 7:17 pm

It’s not just Dem statewide wins that would be a problem for the GAGOP….It’s the crapload of money and organization that national Dems will pour into Georgia for ’16 and beyond after a Dem victory or even just a close loss in ’14 that’ll be very problematic for Republicans.

Chris Huttman July 25, 2014 at 8:55 pm

The real benefit to turning Georgia blue or purple or whatever for Democrats is that it forces Republicans to spend money to defend/compete in the 9th most expensive media market in the US – Atlanta.

The following swingy states all cost less to advertise in the entire state than just what Atlanta costs:
Colorado, Iowa, Indiana, Minnesota, New Mexico, Nevada, Washington, Wisconsin.

In fact, when you look at all of Georgia combined, you’re talking about roughly Iowa+New Mexico+Nevada+Wisconsin. More or less. All states Democrats are already winning. Where Republicans are already playing offense in Presidential elections. That means in a zero-sum cash world (for either the D’s, R’s or both) Georgia (with 16 electoral votes) “costs” the 27 in those other states.

While it does little good to those of us in Georgia if Democrats don’t win, it does enormous good to Democrats on a federal level if we get close enough to drive fear into the hearts of the Republicans.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 25, 2014 at 11:52 pm

With Georgia about to become a majority-minority state (54.8% non-Latino white population in 2013, down from over 70% in 1990), national Democrats intend not to turn GA purple but blue within a decade….Something that the GAGOP needs to remain keenly aware of for self-preservational purposes.

Bobloblaw July 27, 2014 at 6:54 pm

Hispanic and Asian support for the Dems is a mile wide and an inch think. Chris Christie got 60% of the Asian vote in 2009. GW Bush in TX in 1998, got 50% of the hispanic vote.

xdog July 27, 2014 at 7:53 pm

You’re dreaming. In presidential races, gopers reached 40 percent only once since 1980. If gopers don’t move forward on immigration reform, they won’t reach 20 percent in 2016.

There probably aren’t enough Hispanic voters in Ga to make a difference this year but donks will get most of them anyway.

David C July 25, 2014 at 5:40 pm

What Chris says, exactly. As a Democrat, it was exactly why I was against Ned Lamont in Connecticut in 2006. His entire spiel was “I’m the anti-Bush candidate, I’ll never vote with Bush.” When it came to what he was actually for, it was nothing more than boilerplate about “How to make Government more like a business” and the like. Nothing specific he was for, nothing about how to build coalitions and the like. He wasn’t anything more than an empty suit–and now the entire Republican Party wants to essentially be the Ned Lamonts of the right. In the Senate, it’s about much more than “Obama and the Democrat [sic] led Senate” and you don’t have to go much further than her father to realize that.

saltycracker July 26, 2014 at 7:42 am

No idea if a Republican majority will do what needs to be done in the big picture.
I do believe that under the current direction our leveraged debt will continue to increase, wealth will continue to be consolidated, the tax codes will not be significantly overhauled. Large corporations seeking tax inversions by moving offshore are gaining speed and loopholes or govt activity, usually involving people not public infrastructure, are a daily legislative game. Government subsidies and activities are the focus for people and business……The assault on capitalism by the Democrats, the too big to fails, the mega-corps and the over-under regulators is what we don’t need. The middle class wage earner with most of their net worth in a home they live in or a small business owner honestly reporting taxes cannot tote the leverage of obligations imposed by government.

The Republicans have not set a good course for many of my concerns but the Democrats print and borrow money to keep this boat afloat while refusing to enforce the agreed rules.

When I vote, it is a leap of faith and hope. Perdue is a glimmer but Nunn is none.

Ken July 26, 2014 at 7:23 pm

Bridget,

The power to block treaties that infringe on individual rights and the power to ensure that less liberal federal judges and US Supreme Court Justices are confirmed means a great deal.

And, there MIGHT be legislation that would pass the US Senate with bipartisan support if it can be brought to the floor. While I am sure President Obama would veto reopening the Gulf for drilling or building the Keystone XL Pipeline there are other items that he might sign . . . maybe.

And there have been quite a few GOP alternatives to Obamacare. In fact that’s the problem. There were too many and the GOP should have settled on a single plan and gathered support for that alternative. And then there are all of those job-creation bills that passed the House. There have been positive bills offered.

It matters.

Bridget Cantrell July 26, 2014 at 8:04 pm

Then Ken, I ask that the men of the GOP stand up and speak up for women to be supported more than we are. Georgia is 52% female… we should have more females in office.

Ralph July 25, 2014 at 5:42 pm

Polls in July are pretty useless unless there is a big leader or a trend. Not the case here.

The best thing about a Republican takeover of the Senate will be stopping the liberal media highlighting D.O.A. Senate bills that the House will never pass (recall the media hoopla over the immigration bill). No doubt Obama will veto most of what a Republican Congress passes, and it will stick.

Bobloblaw July 25, 2014 at 6:52 pm

I am thinking about 2016. Every GOPer has to win in 2014 because the GOP could lose 10 seats in 2016. When the GOP has 39 Senate seats come Jan 2017, people might think otherwise about Nunn as their Senator.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 25, 2014 at 7:21 pm

Now that’s thinking ahead….Something that seems to be all too rare in politics these days.

Jane July 25, 2014 at 5:55 pm

Rasmussen going release their weighting?

Bobloblaw July 25, 2014 at 7:00 pm

Ok so this MIGHT be the wrong forum, but the MOST important election this fall is the Illinois governor’s race. If the GOP wins, there is hope that even the bluest states can step back from the fiscal abyss and the Permanent Democrat Majority isn’t going to happen. If not, then it means the US is headed for oblivion. Nothing can convince blue voters to change. Theyd rather eat dirt than vote GOP.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 25, 2014 at 7:31 pm

Republicans can win (and have won) statewide office in blue states….They just can’t win control of Democrat-dominated state legislatures in blue states.

Bobloblaw July 27, 2014 at 6:57 pm

Gerrymandering

xdog July 25, 2014 at 10:33 pm

If Brownback loses in Kansas, does that mean double oblivion?

Bobloblaw July 27, 2014 at 6:56 pm

No because Kansas has a history of electing Dems to statewide office. There are lots of moderate GOPers in wealthy suburbs of KC like Mission Hills and Shawnee Mission who vote GOP for national office but vote Dem for sate office.