And Now The Work Begins

July 23, 2014 10:12 am

by Nathan · 14 comments

Take a look at the map below:

RCP-GABlue

That map is from the latest (image pulled on 7/22/14) RealClearPolitics US Senate general election map with no toss-ups. Georgia, by all accounts, is still considered a toss-up for the US Senate race. It shouldn’t, but the “Nunn” name still carries a lot of weight…so does the “Carter” name. That map should scare the bejeezus out of Republicans (and I don’t care if you’re a TEA Party person or “independent paleoconservative whatever”). It shows Georgia as losing what should be, by all accounts, a safe Republican seat for 2014. I know, Michelle Nunn *probably* won’t win, but there’s a chance, and the polls that have come out recently, that may be a pretty decent chance.

Republicans have been beating each other up over the past year and a half-ish trying to “out-conservative” one another. That gave ample opportunity for Michelle Nunn to craft herself as a conservative Democrat, notice, though, she doesn’t mention the fact that she is a Democrat all that much. Her and national Democrats are trying to sell her as a moderate-to-conservative choice for independents. That, coupled with a number of folks making noise about how there isn’t a “real conservative” in the Republican race now, so they are going to vote for the Libertarian.

Ok, if you’re a Republican or tend to vote Republican and are planning on voting for the Libertarian as a protest vote, then you may as well vote for the Democrat. That’s all you’re really doing. #sorrynotsorry

I had a number of my candidates get defeated in the May primary. Yes, it sucks. Yes, it’s disappointing not to see your team move forward, but we have to move forward. I believe that there is some grieving that needs to be done when your candidate is defeated. Especially when it is a close race. However, we must remember that the main goal as Republicans is to elect Republicans. David Perdue pulled of a surprising win last night. It was a shock to me and many others, but congratulations to him. I give him my full support going into November.

We, as Republicans, should cheer on our team to victory. It’s easier when you get the candidate you like, but it doesn’t work out that way. Unfortunately, that’s life. To my friends licking their wounds: I’m right there with you, but I hope that you’ll join me in fighting the good fight. Let’s work to elect our Republican candidates this November.

{ 14 comments… read them below or add one }

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 23, 2014 at 10:28 am

Though I’m not at all a fan of the Sonny Perdue legacy of excellence in governing, with a strategist like Fred Davis, chances are that Perdue’s team is going to rip None a new one down the stretch and make her wish that she had sat this one out.

Harry July 23, 2014 at 10:53 am

+Fred Davis. Davis vs. Axelrod will be something to see from the back benches.

xdog July 23, 2014 at 10:33 am

Rah team and good luck. But in 2016 the party exposure increases greatly as 23 goper seats will be contested versus 10 donk seats. For the long run, gopers may need a better strategy than ‘play nice’.

Chris Huttman July 23, 2014 at 10:59 am

Pretty inconceivable that GOP would win all of Alaska, Louisiana, Arkansas and Iowa and at the same time Dems would win GA. More likely Dems win at least 2 of those states, putting them at 51 with Nunn or 50 (and majority control) without.

Bobloblaw July 23, 2014 at 11:06 am

I agree. But with states like GA where demographics are changing and states like IA where they arent, it is possible.

I expect Perdue will win. Polling before the other side is done with their primary is iffy. Plus now the spotlight will turn on Nunn, who isnt that great of a candidate in reality.

“” It shouldn’t, but the “Nunn” name still carries a lot of weight…so does the “Carter” name””
There are a few million people like myself who have moved here since the mid 1990s who could care less about the Nunn and Carter names. The former is WHO? and the later is an embarrassment. I moved here to get away from the dysfunction of liberal one party government. Ill be damned if I just sit by and let it happen here too.

Chris Huttman July 23, 2014 at 11:27 am

I got news for you the average person who has moved here since the 1990’s isn’t a conservative white male.

Bobloblaw July 23, 2014 at 11:44 am

From 1990 to 2005 or so it was mostly white people fleeing states like my beloved Illinois. That is why Roy Barnes, not a bad gov by any measure, lost so badly in 2002. Since the mid 2000s, it has been minorities.

Chris Huttman July 23, 2014 at 12:15 pm

That’s true – the raw vote increase from ’98 to ’02 in places like Cherokee and Forsyth (and in other counties but it can be more purely viewed in those two counties) was just enormous. Even though the actual percentages for Barnes weren’t much different (31% in 1998 in Cherokee to 28% in 2002) the raw voters were like a landslide. I don’t think they really expected that.

They could have won facing the huge new numbers of suburban voters OR the large dropoff in South Ga voters, but not facing both at the same time.

I might be calculating this wrong, but Ga’s white share of population went from 71% to 65% in 2000 and down to 63% in 2010. Black went from 27% to 29% to 31%.

Bobloblaw July 23, 2014 at 12:34 pm

Yeah but even as the white population fell, it became more conservative and more GOP. Old Blue Dogs died off and were replaced by conservative refugees from IL, NJ, NY, MA etc.

I saw the same thing when I lived in TX. Texas is MORE conservative and more GOP today than it was in 1990, even though the white population has gone from 60% in 1990 to 48% today. It is because there are no more white Dems left in TX. The irony is that Wendy Davis who will lose by 15-20 points could have had a fighting chance prior to 1994. The Dems there nominated someone who they thought was the future of the state but they just nominated a younger Ann Richards.

The south is going through a new change. More minorities and more immigrants. I represent the change the south went through from 1980 or so up to 2010. I dont drink cold sweet tea, eat grits, or say “fixin ta” I am here because my old state, one of the most GOP in past decades, is now a progressive hell hole.

Chris Huttman July 23, 2014 at 3:05 pm

We can at least both agree that Wendy Davis has no chance.

David C July 23, 2014 at 11:36 am

As much as everyone on the right seems to want to demonize Carter, the reality is that ex-Presidents are by and large quite popular people, especially in home states. The most recent poll I saw gave Jimmy two to one favorability in the state–not surprising given that your average Georgian sees him, if at all, being a nice old man at Braves games, teaching Sunday School in Plains, building houses for Habitat for Humanity or fighting diseases and the like in the 3rd World. But yes, by all means run against Jimmy Carter some more given that even the youngest Reagan ’80 voter is 52 years old.

Bobloblaw July 23, 2014 at 11:45 am

I have noticed that people here still like Jummah. One of 6 states he carried.

Bobloblaw July 23, 2014 at 11:08 am

Arkansas and Louisiana, unlike VA, NC and GA arent attracting liberals fleeing liberal areas of the country who then turn around and create the same mess they fled. But Pryor seems to be in more trouble than Landreau

Jon Lester July 24, 2014 at 11:21 am

I’m voting Libertarian on principle, and to help grow the brand. Odds are, all three statewide Libertarian candidates will force runoffs, in which Republicans will likely have the advantage, if Perdue is smart enough to remember that he doesn’t need to say anything to appeal to far-right voters. Deal can probably keep his game on, and I wouldn’t worry about Georgia voters choosing the more statist candidate for PSC.