New Poll Puts Carter Up by 8 Points

July 17, 2014 14:31 pm

by Ed · 44 comments

Discuss amongst yourselves.

:: Update from Jon ::

Here is Lori Geary’s report on the poll.

Ed July 17, 2014 at 2:33 pm

Could I have been wrong when I previously said that Carter doesn’t have a chance?

First time for everything, I suppose.

Michael Silver July 17, 2014 at 3:20 pm

WOW! I would have NEVER thought Sen Carter would be in that position.

I suppose voters haven’t Opted-In to re-electing Gov. Deal ….. an inside baseball dig at the Governor’s gun-prohibitionist Opt-In requirement for carrying guns in church.

Ed July 18, 2014 at 9:08 am

I can’t tell if your narrow-mindedness and inability to think rationally beyond your one issue is admirable for its obstinacy or just plain tiring. Probably the latter, to be honest.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 18, 2014 at 10:04 am

This isn’t about guns. This is about Deal’s ethical issues popping up to take a huge bite out of Deal and the Georgia GOP at the absolute worst possible time during an election that Georgia Republicans absolutely must have to retain power in a state whose demographics are changing rapidly.

Chris Huttman July 17, 2014 at 2:45 pm

Maybe in addition to the ethics commission Nathan Deal’s campaign has also broken the polling industry.

Stephen in Southside July 17, 2014 at 3:06 pm

Sounds like Deal’s camp might want to get proactive, not reactive

Doctor Strangelove July 17, 2014 at 3:16 pm

Before some dummy starts calling this some sort of liberal conspiracy, let’s all remember this is Mark Freakin’ Rountree. Not exactly the bastion of Democratic Polling.

Noway July 17, 2014 at 3:41 pm

Rountree or not, Deal better be careful. Everyone is coming out of the woodwork talking about this ethics thing. Could this be Deja Vu all over again? Carter’s grandpappy won on the “I won’t lie to you” theme and THAT was the presidency. Baby Carter could possible ride this to West Paces Ferry very easily if all the stars line up.

griftdrift July 17, 2014 at 3:21 pm

Run unopposed or run scared.

John Konop July 17, 2014 at 3:43 pm

LOL…That was funny…..a classic one liner from the king of wham bam at the PP!

Chris Huttman July 17, 2014 at 3:51 pm

Not sure that’s his line but very relevant. My 10,000 ft take on Deal: No one really “likes” the guy (he doesn’t inspire strong feelings of love or hate the way Sonny, Roy, Zell etc did) and therefor nobody knows much about him. I don’t think there are that many actual voters out there who would care if he wasn’t governor tomorrow – having been around the 2006 election in very close proximity to Sonny as a tracker, I can tell you that was not the case for Sonny. So a guy they don’t particularly like, they don’t really care about, they don’t know anything about – then what do they know about him? Screwed up snow jam, has bad ethics.

He could still win – hell he is probably still favored it is still Georgia afterall, but that’s a recipe for not getting re-elected.

griftdrift July 17, 2014 at 3:58 pm

Can’t take credit for it, JK. It’s an old saw. But then again I’m old guy. I’ve got millions of em! Don’t forget to tip your servers!

John Konop July 17, 2014 at 5:14 pm

Next time I will buy you a beer or 2….

Will Durant July 17, 2014 at 4:09 pm

I would remind everyone that the Governor is still sitting on a pile of money and four months to apply it. Of course how it gets used will be a factor as well. It wouldn’t be prudent to distribute it to friends and family this go ’round unless of course that ends up becoming part of his exit strategy. Meanwhile the fat lady hasn’t even been scheduled as yet, but some fat cats are probably getting nervous.

Doug Deal July 17, 2014 at 4:47 pm

Mark Rountree is a closet liberal RINO.

:-)

Lawton Sack July 17, 2014 at 5:09 pm

And thus a member of the ESTABLISHMENT (r).

Three Jack July 17, 2014 at 4:48 pm

No surprise here other than wondering how 41% can still support a walking ethics violation.

tribeca July 17, 2014 at 5:41 pm

Eh. Not surprised. I went to a Braves game a few years back at Turner Field and people booed when President Carter came on Braves vision. I’d imagine some of those folks make up the 41%

Dave Bearse July 17, 2014 at 10:34 pm

I think “[v]oters who claimed to be Independent are split 38 percent to 38 percent in the race” is critical. Normally I think they split 2:1 in favor of the GOP.

And women favoring Carter 2:1 doesn’t bode well for the GOP Senate nominee.

Jon Lester July 18, 2014 at 12:05 am

If Carter does win, at least we’ll finally get to hear how he plans to pay for Medicaid expansion after all that “free” federal money runs out, which would happen before 2018.

WeymanCWannamakerJr July 18, 2014 at 1:41 am

The legislature already passed an inoculation to a possible Carter victory with HB 990 which requires legislative approval to any Medicaid Expansion.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 18, 2014 at 9:32 am

And if Virginia is any indication with its newly-elected Democrat governor and GOP-dominated legislature, Carter (if elected) will press the issue with the GOP-dominated Georgia Legislature to try and make Republicans look heartless to female voters in advance of a potential Hillary-fueled wave election in 2016.

xdog July 18, 2014 at 10:06 am

Yes, VA gopers proposed wanding vaginas out of love.

Bobloblaw July 21, 2014 at 4:29 pm

Big difference is VA doesn’t have GOP supermajorities in the state legislature

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 21, 2014 at 6:07 pm

Republicans currently hold a 20-19 advantage in the Virginia State Senate and a 68-32 supermajority in the Virginia House of Delegates.

Chris Huttman July 18, 2014 at 9:29 am

Whenever your 100% gravy train turns into a 90% gravy train, I don’t think you typically describe that as “runs out”. Runs a little lower maybe.

I believe many states have pointed out that the net cost to them is 0 or less than 0 because it’s not like we aren’t already paying for these people’s healthcare in some way or other.

Jon Lester July 21, 2014 at 9:28 am

It drops to 90% and then to nothing over a few years (assuming Obamacare survives). Besides, people need to know there’s no such thing as free federal money.

Dave Bearse July 20, 2014 at 4:17 pm

Yeah, just like Deal’s detailing the government waste that he has and will cut.

Zwlind July 18, 2014 at 3:19 pm

This is just one poll. There supposed to be wrong a certain number of the time even if done correctly. Until there’s a pattern there’s no reason to assume its legitimate.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 18, 2014 at 4:56 pm

Right….Because Deal’s mounting ethics problems are like a total non-issue in this race against a well-financed opponent with high name ID.

Zwlind July 18, 2014 at 11:40 pm

Not my point. Here’s every poll since the race began. This isn’t the only one where Carter was ahead but then the next week one comes out where Deal is leading. My point was unless there’s a pattern, its hard to read too much into one poll.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/governor/ga/georgia_governor_deal_vs_carter-3461.html

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 19, 2014 at 12:49 pm

That’s because Georgia voters want to give their generally-likeable incumbent governor the benefit of the doubt, but the ongoing allegations of ethics violations make it hard for them to fully support his re-election….Which is why the polls should be taken seriously during situations like this.

Harry July 19, 2014 at 1:23 pm

The voter is faced with having to separate perception (media propaganda) from reality. Hopefully it gets sorted out over the next 3.5 months.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 19, 2014 at 4:06 pm

Unfortunately for many, perception is reality which is bad because even though these are all mostly just technical violations the constant stream of bad ethics news puts Deal’s campaign on the defensive. Instead of talking about the issues we’re talking about who did what, where and when, Nixonian-style.

Dave Bearse July 20, 2014 at 4:26 pm

It’s a trifle that a state agency was allegedly pressured by the Governor’s office to determine there’s nothing whatsoever wrong with using campaign money raised in running for state office for personal legal bills that have nothing to do with that office, and everything to do with the Governor using taxpayer resources to pressure another state agency for personal gain.

Harry July 20, 2014 at 5:37 pm

Are those allegations? Please continue…

Zwlind July 19, 2014 at 2:04 pm

You’re seeing what you want to see… come on.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 19, 2014 at 4:01 pm

I’m seeing a fairly-likeable incumbent governor who would probably be up by at least about 5-6 points were it not for the ethics allegations and at least 10 points were it not for both the bad ethics news and the Snowjam….What are you seeing?

Jane July 20, 2014 at 11:20 pm

It is all about turnout and changing Demographics.

Bobloblaw July 21, 2014 at 4:30 pm

Does anyone see a scenario where Carter wins by more than 5 and Nunn loses?

TheEiger July 21, 2014 at 4:32 pm

That won’t happen on the same ballot, but if the Governor’s race goes to a runoff then that scenario is entirely possible.

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 21, 2014 at 6:18 pm

With South Georgia voters likely to turnout for Kingston in significant numbers, that scenario certainly is plausible. It is also the GOP-dominated South Georgia electorate that could potentially provide some hope for Deal to salvage his currently-troubled re-election campaign, if Kingston wins.

Bobloblaw July 21, 2014 at 6:30 pm

I was thinking that South GA would be the place where there is lots ticket splitting

The Last Democrat in Georgia July 21, 2014 at 6:45 pm

By absolutely no means is that potential scenario a sure shot for Deal at this point, but it is also not completely out of the realm of possibility for a campaign that has had their legs knocked out from under them.

Comments on this entry are closed.