New Poll in CD 11: It Looks Bad, Bob

July 11, 2014 11:00 am

by Eric The Younger · 14 comments

Time to put all that quantitative methodology to work again. I do love posts like this, but then again I’m a complete nerd. Mike Hassinger consistently reminds us that polls are for strippers and skiers, but when done right, they can be fascinating.

There’s a new poll out from Magellan Communications with some very interesting cross tabs. The poll was an autodial poll of 719 likely Republican voters and has an MoE of +/- 3.65. Onto the fun numbers

First fun number and the real news,T5. “If the election were held today (July 7th), would you vote for Bob Barr or Barry Loudermilk?” Answer was 49% for Barry Loudermilk and 28% for Bob Barr. These numbers were further broken down into “definitely” and “likely.” Barr’s number show that he has a strong base, but that’s about it. 22% are definite votes whereas only 6% are likely. Seems to me that Barr is appealing to a very specific audience and not much more.

Going to the Secretary of State’s website, when it works, you can see the results from May 20. For the primary Barr had 25.8% of the vote and Loudermilk had 36.6%. Looking at the “definitely” poll numbers for Loudermilk, they’re at 36%. This would suggest that Loudermilk has kept his base and has broadened it with 13% likely votes. Looking at Barr, it would appear that his base has actually shrunk compared to the primary.

Next fun number, old people and unfavorables. I personally think that the old folks are oversampled, but if you are older you are a more likely voter. Also with an oversampled older population, the poll should swing more towards Bob Barr given his prior service as a Rep before he challenged John Linder. My generation barely remembers this. That being said, Bob Barr’s unfavorable rating is 46%. Compare that to Barry Loudermilk’s unfavorable rating of 23%. That alone should speak volumes.

I found one more interesting number, but it relates to the demographics of those polled and Party ID.

T6. Do you consider yourself to be very conservative, somewhat conservative or
moderate in your political beliefs?
Very Conservative …………………………………………… 33%
Somewhat Conservative …………………………………… 37%
Moderate ………………………………………………………. 27%
Unsure or No Opinion ………………………………………. 3%

I’m a little surprised that the sample didn’t lean more towards “Very Conservative.” Instead it shows that a good cross section of conservatives were part of the poll and any complaint that Barry Loudermilk is too conservative is a bit off base. He appears to appeal to all shades of conservative, which is good for a congressman. Hopefully it will translate well to actually representing the district.

Hardly July 11, 2014 at 12:12 pm

T6. Do you consider yourself to be very homophobic and anti-science, somewhat homophobic and anti-science, or moderate in your homophobia and anti-science beliefs?

Patrick Mayer July 11, 2014 at 12:17 pm

T6a. Do you consider yourself to be:
1. Just a little bit of a troll
2. A bed wetter
3. Not as funny as you think you are

John Konop July 11, 2014 at 2:34 pm

Eric,

interesting post…..I think we all have different views on conservative….ie immigration, foreign policy, social conservatives verse personal rights…….

therightdirection July 11, 2014 at 3:34 pm
Charlie July 11, 2014 at 3:47 pm

We ask that you do not provide links without context please.

DavidPerdue2014 July 11, 2014 at 4:25 pm

Internal polls are always complete BS. With the numerous scandals and gaffes from Barry that have emerged as of late, Barr seems to have the momentum. His MDJ endorsement is a huge deal in Cobb County. Also, Barr seems to have picked up both Tricia Pridemore and Ed Lindsay’s supporters (endorsements from their main people). I call BS on this poll. CD-11 is a tight race.

Noway July 11, 2014 at 6:43 pm

What scandals and gaffes?

DavidPerdue2014 July 12, 2014 at 12:03 am

Military record embellishment, racial discrimination lawsuit and $80,000 settlement (taxpayer dollars), incorrect historical claims, the list goes on….

Noway July 12, 2014 at 8:11 pm

Any links to these stories, David? This is in my district but I have been out of the country and have not seen anything really negative about Barry.

Eric The Younger July 13, 2014 at 6:01 pm

Because Bob Barr didn’t leave the Republican Party to run for President as a Libertarian. Or challenge an incumbent Republican Representative, John Linder. Oh or be the attorney of record for Linda Shrinko, and attempt to be the attorney for Baby Doc Duvalier.

Let’s also not forget Barr’s blatant disrespect for local police departments in his op-ed last year. Then again the list just goes on…

gabulldawg July 11, 2014 at 8:50 pm

In fairness that’s just not true. It seems every one of Pridemore and Lindsey’s endorsements and donors went to Loudermilk. Barr seemed to get a lot of both Pridemores and Lindsey’s grassroots.

DavidPerdue2014 July 12, 2014 at 12:04 am

Kim Gresh endoresed Barr and almost all of Pridemore’s big donors are now backing Barr.

DavidPerdue2014 July 12, 2014 at 12:06 am

And given the bitterness that we saw between Lindsay and Loudermilk in the primary, I find it extremely hard to believe any of Ed Lindsay’s supporters would back Barry.

Bridget Cantrell July 12, 2014 at 6:36 pm

I supported Tricia, and I’ll be voting for Barr.

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