Kingston and Perdue Neck and Neck in New Poll

July 10, 2014 16:29 pm

by Tim Darnell · 11 comments

A new poll released Thursday by InsiderAdvantage and OpinionSavvy show Jack Kingston and David Perdue virtually tied in the GOP Senate runoff.

Fox5 Atlanta is reporting the survey of 1,278 likely voters and voters who have voted early was conducted by phone and online July 7-9.

Here are the results:

Jack Kingston: 42%
David Perdue: 41%
Undecided: 17%

It is weighted for age, race and gender. The “SuperPoll” has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.7 percent and a confidence level of 95 percent.

{ 11 comments… read them below or add one }

KD_fiscal conservative July 10, 2014 at 11:09 pm

This is a Towery poll. He greatly under-predicted turnout from Kingston’s base for the primary. No reason to believe he learned from his mistake.

In his analysis, Towery also seems to miss that the whole “Kingston is linked to a Palestinian felon” thing may actually fire up his base. Also even Towery admits key to winning for either candidate that turning out the base…well Perdue has none. As I’ve been saying from early in the primary: smart money goes to Kingston.

Trey A. July 11, 2014 at 1:44 am

It’s going to come down to turnout, no?

And I’m anticipating a very low number. With the boogeymen more than capable of losing to Michell Nunn (aka, Broun and Gingrey) out of the race, the incentive to take an extra trip to the polls is reduced for a lot of folks–especially in the metro Atlanta region. My gut is that this favors Kingston, but I could be wrong.

I, for one, am rather indifferent. Had my candidate made it to the runoff (Handel), I’d be shaming my neighbors to the polls. Had Broun or Gingrey made it to the runoff, I’d be doing whatever I could to ensure that they didn’t get to the general. But Perdue or Kingston? Easy to sit that one out.

Thoughts?

KD_fiscal conservative July 11, 2014 at 8:06 am

Turnout will be very low, so whoever can motivate their base to show up will win. Perdue doesn’t have much of a loyal base of voters , thus is at a disadvantage for this type of election.

Harry July 11, 2014 at 8:08 am

Unless some Democrats turn out and vote for him…

John Konop July 11, 2014 at 8:41 am

KD,

You are spot on as usual….We saw this in the run off elections in Cherokee….strongest base wins..ie Sam Moore…..His votes stayed about the same but in a special election and special election run off he won….He runs in a normal time same votes no cigar…If he made the runoff this time by the way within a few points….I think he would of won the run off….run offs, special elections….way different animal….Moore actually won an election with never having majority support in his district via a special election. It is base, base…..not majority….

Harry July 11, 2014 at 9:16 am

Same situation with educators who are turned out for odd-date SPLOST elections. In conditions of induced apathy it doesn’t take much to swing an election.

John Konop July 11, 2014 at 9:59 am

Good point!

KD_fiscal conservative July 11, 2014 at 9:52 am

Btw here’s an interesting article about Towery’s bizarre methodology for his “SuperPoll.”

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/05/02/insideradvantage-georgia-_n_5256255.html

northside101 July 11, 2014 at 4:56 pm

For some historical perspective, the last time the GOP had a Senate runoff was way back in 1996—middle of the Bill Clinton era—under the unusual circumstances of the Atlanta Olympics. The primary was held before its start (July 9), the runoff just 2 days after it ended (August 6). In Round 1, Guy Millner led Isakson by 7 points and in the runoff Millner defeated Isakson by a close 53-47% margin, about 18,000-vote margin. Isakson easily won his home base of Cobb (58%) and adjoining Fulton (61%), with smaller percentages in DeKalb (53%) and Chatham/Savannah at 54%. Millner easily won Augusta and Macon and won most of the other counties in the state. Just over 320,000 voted in that contest.

Hard to tell the outcome of this one….one thing in Perdue’s favor, the winners of Round 1 in the 1992 and 1996 GOP Senate primaries (Coverdell led in Round 1 back in 92) also won the subsequent runoffs (though by close margins in both cases). In Kingston’s favor would seem to be the backing of party regulars and officials. But I don’t think either side assumes anything at this stage. While Perdue had a 5-point lead over Kingston in Round 1, Handel had an 11-point lead over Deal in Round 1 in 2010 (primary for governor), and we know how the runoff turned out in that contest. Kingston will certainly win his home 1st District easily (he got 75 percent there on May 20) and would be considered favorite in the adjoining 12th CD of John Barrow. Kingston also won CD 8 (Austin Scott) in the primary despite Perdue strength in the Macon area. But he’ll have to win more than 3 districts to prevail July 22. It will be interesting to see what CD 6 (Tom Price’ s district) does in the runoff (Handel won a plurality in his district May 20), and the adjoining CD 11 (Barr/Loudermilk). Perdue probably needs to carry CD 9 (Doug Collins’ district) to win—it cast the most votes of any of Georgia’s 14 districts in the GOP primary and Perdue won more votes there than in any other cong district that day (though his highest percentage came in Lynn Westmoreland’s 3rd District—40%).

As for statewide turnout, maybe 450,000 to 500,000? Anyone venture a guess? Anyone believe turnout will go up in the runoff from May 20?

Harry July 12, 2014 at 11:30 am
Bobloblaw July 13, 2014 at 3:53 pm

Towery doesnt exactly poll runoffs well. I recall in 2008, he said the Chambliss/Martin race was going to be a nail biter…..16 points later, everyone still has their finger nails.