In New Poll, Deal Leads Carter

June 26, 2014 13:55 pm

by Jon Richards · 10 comments

Insider Advantage / Fox 5 today released a new poll showing Governor Deal firmly in the lead against Democratic opponent Jason Carter.

In the poll of 1,349 likely voters, Deal gets 47%, Carter 40%, and Libertarian candidate Andrew Hunt receives 3%. 10% remain undecided. The poll also showed President Obama’s job performance rating at 41% approve, 58% disapprove. The poll has a 2.7% margin of error.

Insider Advantage CEO Matt Towery puts some of the blame for Carter’s poor polling on President Obama’s poor favorability. But, he also says the State Senator’s bland initial round of advertising didn’t help, either. Towery:

Losing ground in the polls while running advertising is a very bad sign. The best Carter could likely hope for would be to keep Governor Deal under 50% (plus one vote), as required to win, and force him into a winter runoff. But looking at Carter’s lack of success in currents ads and strategic blunders on major votes during the last legislative session, it seems unlikely right now to imagine the Carter campaign pulling off such a scenario.

In early polling, it looked like the governor might be in trouble. Now, not so much. Is Deal on the way to victory? Discuss.

George Chidi June 26, 2014 at 2:24 pm

IA had Carter at 41 and Deal at 38 a couple of months ago. It’s hard to divine a trend from two polling results — we’ll have to keep watching. I said this when Carter was up; polls possess little predictive power this far out. But to say that the race is anything but close is a misreading of the electorate.

pucillo.oscar June 26, 2014 at 4:29 pm

“polls possess little predictive power this far out”

But the polls consistently show Jason Carter at 42% or below, meaning that Carter is not gaining support beyond the traditional Dem base. If this does not change, he will be hard pressed to get above 48% on election day even if Carter’s turnout is big and Deal’s support is relatively soft.

Carter’s main issue is that he has no message, issue or rationale other than running against Deal and the Republicans. But while Deal and the Georgia GOP are not that popular (even among Republicans) the voters don’t dislike or despise them either. Pretty much the same dynamic with Obama in 2008: voters didn’t like him much, but didn’t dislike him enough to turn him out in favor of a candidate in Romney whose only message was “Obama’s doing a bad job” while providing absolutely no evidence that he would do a better one.

Carter needs a transportation/infrastructure plan, an education plan, a plan to restructure the state’s social services, a tax reform plan, a jobs plan, a criminal justice plan … SOMETHING to provide a rationale for his candidacy other than beating the Republicans, which is an agenda that only the 42% of voters that he consistently gets cares about.

The Last Democrat in Georgia June 26, 2014 at 6:54 pm

Yes, Governor Deal is on the way to victory. Now that Carter has been exposed to be just another empty suit, Deal likely wins re-election in a walk.

Will Durant June 26, 2014 at 8:43 pm

I figure it takes 7 political years to equal 1 dog year. Given that, we have 20 years until election day.

In the meantime I’m just thankful once again for not having a land line anymore.

Ed June 26, 2014 at 10:39 pm

Deal wins by 10

Chris Huttman June 26, 2014 at 11:48 pm

Mirror, mirror on the wall, what do you call a poll of Georgia that:
1. Only has black voters making up 24% of the electorate and giving 15% of their votes to Nathan Deal?
2. Has Hispanic voters giving 79% of their votes to Nathan Deal
3. Still has Jason Carter getting 30% of the white vote (Roy Barnes got <20).
4. And shows Nathan Deal with a 7 point lead?

A fairy tale. Or junk. Your choice.

tribeca June 27, 2014 at 12:01 am

Bbbbbb…bbb…but Matt Towery is never wrong. Just ask Governor Oxendine, former Lt. Governor Reed et cetera, et cetera.

Bobloblaw June 28, 2014 at 7:50 pm

Dont 1-3 all cancel each other out? Too few black voters, too many hispancs for Deal and too many whites for Carter?

I dont think that Deal getting 15% of the black vote is unreasonable. Do you think every Dem gets 97% of the black vote like Obama? Trent Lott and Strom Thurmond use to get 35% of the black vote in their elections

George Chidi June 29, 2014 at 1:05 pm

In exit polls in 2012 showed that only about 4 percent of black voters identified as Republicans. Still … I’ll give you that Deal might win 15 percent of African-Americans.

A Public Policy Polling sample a month ago showed Deal getting 16 percent of the black vote. It also shows Carter with 30 percent of the white vote. And it’s got Deal tied 43-all with Carter.

The difference in the two polls is the weighting methodology. All pollsters right now are trying to make educated guesses about what the electorate will look like on Election Day. What will turnout be overall, what will turnout look like by age or by race or by geographic location.

All the poll results look close. Frankly, I think the campaigns themselves have the power to make the pollsters look silly, if they target their outreach and turnout machines to their desired demographic bases.

This pleases me. It means both parties are looking at an honest-to-goodness campaign that will revolve around ideas and political skill, instead of a foregone conclusion based on little more than partisan affiliation and demographics.

northside101 June 27, 2014 at 5:45 pm

I would agree with the numbers for Carter (40 and the Libertarian. Last time (2010), Libertarian got 4% for governor while Deal got 53, Barnes 43. 40 (percent) has to be close to rock-bottom (worse case scenario) for a Democratic candidate, close to the 38 Taylor got against Perdue in 2006 and the 39 Thurmond got against Isakson in the 2010 Senate race. But Chris has a point on the 24% black percentage. In 2010, blacks accounted for 28% of the state’s total turnout, not too far below the 30% level of the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. And that 28% was in a bad Democratic year, when in theory there would not have been much reason to show up. (In the 2010 election, there was no chance Barnes could beat Deal outright in Round 1—question was whether he could get enough to force a runoff.) I think Barnes got about a third of the white vote when he lost to Perdue in 2002, but back then, blacks accounted for only 23% of the state’ total turnout according to data from Secretary of State. If Carter were to get a third of the white vote, he could possibly win in November (depending on size of black vote)

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