11 Alive Says Kingston and Deal Lead

June 6, 2014 12:00 pm

by Eric The Younger · 19 comments

11 Alive has released the results of a new poll that show Congressman Jack Kingston leads David Perdue by 11 points (MoE +/- 4.9). It also shows that either Republican candidate has a convincing lead on Michelle Nunn. The same poll has Governor Nathan Deal leading State Senator Jason Carter by 6 points (MoE +- 3.2).

The full data can be found here.

This cycle has seen lots of polls for each race, with some more legitimate/accurate than others. For more commentary on this be sure to check out Charlie on the 7:00pm 11 Alive broadcast tonight.

{ 19 comments… read them below or add one }

FranInAtlanta June 6, 2014 at 12:54 pm

There was PPP early this year showing that Broun was ahead in the Repub Primary. Cross-tabs showed that half of his picks were coming from liberal Dems.

The Last Democrat in Georgia June 6, 2014 at 1:11 pm

This seems to be a poll that is likely much more in line with where the Georgia electorate is.

Salmo June 6, 2014 at 2:22 pm

As with one of the recent polls showing Carter in the lead, we’re seeing high single digits (i.e. 6-9%) for Libertarian candidates. I find that a bit hard to believe, and it is probably at least partly a result of disgruntled GOP primary voters. Recent gubernatorial and Senate elections have had the Libertarian around 1-3%. You have to figure some of those will come around by November, and those votes should break at least 2:1 to the R candidates.

objective June 8, 2014 at 12:25 pm

i think the pool of leaning libertarian voters in GA is actually at abt 10%, but that their vote is obscured by the tendency to want to vote for electable candidates. ppl’s responses to surveys are always more ideological then their votes, which are more practical.

John Konop June 6, 2014 at 3:34 pm

Deal beat Barnes by almost 10 points……That is why this election looks like a 7 to 5 point advantage to the GOP. Which falls in line with the trend of Georgia heading toward a toss up state by 2020 by most experts…..unless GOP reaches out better to young and minorities…..The only real curve ball is if Hillary brings out women like Obama brought out minorities…And Georgia had a strong female statewide candidates in 16. As I said Nunn looks like she is positioning herself for a 16 run…..and hoping Johnny steps away, because he wins no matter what…..I do think Nunn has run a very smart campaign so far…As I said before, I do not see how she wins….but she is putting herself in a good position for the future….The real number is how close she gets within 5 points….that tells you the future…

Chris Huttman June 6, 2014 at 3:56 pm

Is this the year…that black voters make up only 24% of the electorate and give less than 70% of their votes to Democratic candidates? Stay tuned!

Chris Huttman June 6, 2014 at 3:59 pm

In other words – at 24% of the electorate and ~69% of the vote, a Democrat would get just under 17% of their total vote from black voters. At 29% and 90%, that number rises to 26% of their vote. Not saying that you should necessarily do this to every poll you run across, but Nunn and Carter would both have leads with these minor changes.

Particularly in the Governor’s race, no Republican can win that only gets 58% of the white vote.

Chris Huttman June 6, 2014 at 4:01 pm

In conclusion, a poll that shows black voters only making up 24% of the electorate (they haven’t made up that small of the electorate since 2004/2006), shows Hispanics making up 7% of the electorate (they’ve never been anywhere close) and shows Republicans in the high teens of the black vote and Democratic candidates getting less than 70% – I would argue this is not one of the better polls of the election cycle, though it does show a result that many on this site will agree with.

Lawton Sack June 6, 2014 at 4:09 pm

I don’t put any stock at all to any poll done 5 months away from the election and just a couple of weeks after the Primary.

Eric The Younger June 6, 2014 at 4:46 pm

^^ Smart move

Dave Bearse June 7, 2014 at 12:48 pm

I put little stock in one poll. Pros like Nate Silver know how to wring results from many polls over an extended period of time, so polls do provide insight.

Bill Dawers June 6, 2014 at 5:45 pm

Yeah, the likely voter composition is absurd here.

Beyond the racial elements you note, Chris, consider that the likely voter pool has conservatives at 40% and liberals at only 15%, 52% of voters with a college degree, 39% of voters with incomes over $80,000, and only 35% of the state’s voters from the Atlanta region.

In other words, this poll has a likely voter screen that is almost certainly undercounting votes for Nunn and Carter. Republicans would do well to remember that Gallup and some other pollsters used an overly aggressive likely voter screen in 2012. I’d much rather look at a registered voter poll than a likely voter poll at this point.

Bill Dawers June 6, 2014 at 5:48 pm

And don’t more women vote than men? This poll has the likely voter pool at 53% male.

Bobloblaw June 8, 2014 at 3:49 pm

You guys sound like Republicans nit picking every poll in 2012 that turned out to be right.

Bill Dawers June 8, 2014 at 4:46 pm

Actually, I sound a lot like myself, two weeks before the 2012 election, pointing out the various reasons why Gallup’s tracking poll was so obviously wrong in showing Romney with a sizable advantage. (http://www.billdawers.com/2012/10/19/whats-up-with-gallup-tracking-poll-giving-romney-a-big-lead/)

Harry June 8, 2014 at 5:25 pm

It’s 5 months before the election. The discussion is meaningless at this point.

John Konop June 8, 2014 at 8:19 pm

Bill,

Do you think the Kingston fund raising scandal will have any effect at all in the primary or general if he wins?

Bobloblaw June 8, 2014 at 10:48 pm

???????????????

John Konop June 9, 2014 at 6:35 am