An interesting post today by Harry Enten at FiveThirtyEight: What to Watch For in Georgia’s Republican Senate Primary.
On recent primary polling history in Georgia:
Some contests are harder to survey than others — and primary polling is often awful – but pollsters have done well in the past three major GOP primaries in Georgia. It might be a fluke, but in those past three high-profile statewide races, just one of 11 major candidates has seen more than a 3-point difference between his vote share and his projected polling percentage (with undecideds allocated proportionally).
The polling in this race has been surprisingly stable, and that should mean a good night for David Perdue — and for either Karen Handel or Jack Kingston.
And on a county to watch:
Gwinnett will probably be the most telling. It has a ton of votes (9 percent of the total in the 2010 gubernatorial primary), and in every major competitive statewide primary since 2008, the vote there was within 5 percentage points of the statewide vote for all of the top three candidates. In other words, the vote in Gwinnett is a good indicator for how things will shake out (although it’s worth noting that Broun represents a small portion of the county).
Given the closeness of the polling for second place and various regional factors at play, it will be interesting to see if this pattern holds.