As Bill noted, Five Thirty Eight thinks Gwinnett County will have a lot to do with the results we see tonight.
I decided to check with a few precincts along the Five Forks Trickum Road corridor in the Brookwood and Parkview school clusters. These precincts typically are among the strongest Republican precincts in the county. All the vote totals are as of 2 PM.
|Num||Precinct||Facility||2 PM 2014||Total 2010||Pct.|
|014||Garners A||Mountain Park Depot||329||945||34.8%|
|029||Cates B||Five Forks Library||150||338||44.4%|
|032||Berkshire D||New Mercies Christian Church||211||583||36.2%|
|079||Cates K||Gwinnett Community Chuch||188||478||39.3%|
|112||Berkshire N||Mountain Park Activity Center||313||831||37.7%|
|127||Lawrenceville J||Grace Community Church||69||255||27.1%|
Precinct 14 typically has the highest Republican vote count of any of the county’s 156 precincts. All but precinct 127 are in State Senate District 9, which has the race between Don Balfour, Mike Beaudreau and P.K. Martin. That might increase turnout in those precincts compared to others.
For the six precincts, turnout at 2 PM is 36.6% of the entire in person voting turnout of the same precincts in the 2010 general primary. Unless two thirds of the voters in 2010 decided to vote after work, in person turnout, at least here in Gwinnett, appears to be lower than normal.