Sabato and his Crystal Ball

From Sabato’s Crystal Ball. We still lean Republican for the Senate race, but he has some insight on the GA-4 Race.

In Georgia, none of the Republican Senate candidates is likely to clear the 50% threshold to avoid a runoff. Businessman David Perdue (R) has led all recent polling, with Rep. Jack Kingston (R, GA-1) and former Secretary of State Karen Handel (R) fighting for second place. The key point here is that outspoken social conservative Reps. Paul Broun (R, GA-10) and Phil Gingrey (R, GA-11) consistently lag in fourth and fifth place. These are the candidates that likely Democratic nominee Michelle Nunn would prefer to face. One House incumbent to watch here is Rep. Hank Johnson (D, GA-4) in a heavily Democratic seat. He faces a stern challenge from former DeKalb County Sheriff Tom Brown (D). For all the talk of primary challenges to Republican incumbents, the first incumbent to lose a primary this year might be a Democrat.