Blaming recent polling, the New York Times Upshot Senate Model has moved the Georgia Senate Race to Toss Up. That change, along with new predictions for the Arkansas Senate winner has changed the paper’s guess of the probability of a GOP Senate takeover from 54% to 52%.
Their analysis, in part:
Our primary forecast — which is highly speculative and ought to be considered a rough estimate at best — considers it to be largely a two-way contest between David Perdue, a wealthy businessman, and Representative Jack Kingston.
But we also think there is about one chance in four that a candidate other than these two emerges to face Ms. Nunn in the general election. If that happens, the balance will tip in Ms. Nunn’s favor. As things stand, we’d give Nunn only a 26 percent chance to defeat Mr. Perdue and a 48 percent chance of beating Mr. Kingston. We’d consider her a 73 percent favorite against another candidate, Representative Phil Gingrey.
The post does not mention Nunn’s chances of winning against Karen Handel, who has repeatedly claimed she has the best chances of defeating the likely Democratic nominee because a female Republican candidate would nullify the Democratic War on Women talking point.
Previously, the Times put the odds of a GOP win in the Georgia Senate at 69%. In April, the chances were 74%, and at the beginning of the year, the prediction stood at an 82% chance of GOP victory.